[Ganchrow]

Minnesota 57% - This game comes with a very high degree of uncertainty. Even though Liriano has been brilliant so far, he is still not likely to go deep into this game and that benefits Pittsburgh. Snell has a high degree of volatility, which in general benefits Pittsburgh, but statistically he is vulnerable for a bad outing here.

Yankees 56% - Wright has a very low degree of volatility and he should have his usual outing, which is likely to be on the solid side considering the venue and the Washington offense. Hill comes with a high degree of uncertainty for this game, which benefits the Yankees, given Hill's success in his few starts this year.

Philadelphia 62% - Tampa Bay's bullpen problems are likely to factor in strongly here, and it is by far their biggest weakness for this game, and in fact for the entire series. The 2 rookie starters rate very close, and Philadelphia does not have as much of a lineup edge as they seem to have on paper.

Mets 65% - This game has a high degree of uncertainty. Bedard is likely to have a stretch of effectiveness in the near future, but this game is not a favorable one for that to begin. Soler is likely to experience high volatility in the next month, but this game presents statistically conflicting circumstances. He is likely to experience a poor outing here, but Baltimore is not likely to take advantage of it well.

White Sox 56% - Garcia has been hit hard recently but he is likely to have a decent run now. This is a vulnerable spot for him, conferring an edge to Cincinnati, but the White Sox have edges in the pen and in their lineup for this game, which makes up for Garcia's significant chance of having a bad outing.

Atlanta 57% - This game has a very high degree of uncertainty. The most defining factor for this game is Hudson's likelihood of throwing an excellent game. If he does, Atlanta has a huge edge, and if he doesn't, Boston has a big edge. The performance of Hudson matters much more than any one starter's performance in most games because if Hudson has a good game it severely minimizes a whole cascade of negatives for Atlanta, and if he gets hit, it exposes those negatives. As such, the performance of Lester is less important which benefits Boston slightly. Our research indicates a higher than normal chance that Hudson will have an off day, giving Boston a small edge here.

[bigboydan]

whats your thoughts on the brewers/tribe game tonight ganchrow ?

[Ganchrow]

whats your thoughts on the brewers/tribe game tonight ganchrow ?

I didn't have time for a write-up, but we give a 51% edge to Milwaukee.

[bigboydan]

i had the brewers at 53%. thats why i was asking what your thoughts on this one was.

[Ganchrow]

Seattle 59% - Hernandez is likely to have a strong performance here, and San Francisco is likely to have a sub-par turn on offense as well. Lowry is also likely to have a good outing, but there are more propitious circumstances favoring Seattle, giving them an edge here. San Francisco is going from seeing bad pitching in a hitters' park to seeing a likely resurgent ace in a pitchers' park, and they are not well fortified offensively.

[EBone]

propitious????? I'll just speak for myself by saying: I'm a hick from Southeast Missouri. We don't use big words like "propitious". While I love your write-ups, my head starts spinning when I see words like "propitious" and then I have to go take 2 Tylenol.



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