[illfuuptn]

2nd day in a row I had a no play but then went against the line movement later on. Hughes underrated. Beckett overrated.

[SaintsFan]

2nd day in a row I had a no play but then went against the line movement later on. Hughes underrated. Beckett overrated.

Beckett is undoubtedly better than Hughes this year. At least enough to warrant a -125 or -135 at home, yes? I don't even think the most aggressive anti-public player in America could deny this.

Home field for the Red Sox is another .10

Fact that the Red Sox hit well but NOT clutch last night (stranding 16 baserunners despite having 10 hits off Sabathia) is huge. They will be focused and geared in tonight. I'd say that is good for another .20 or so.

The line as it opened at -160 was fair. Now there may be a twinge of value on the Yankees, but not much. Beckett has been phenomenal against NYY this season.

Gambling forums are great but they inherently encourage those who fade the public and take risks that are unlikely to pay off. Lakerboy gets more high fives for posting retarded plays that have a 1 in 4 chance of hitting than brahmabull got for sweating out a big money "square" play. I'm not saying that brahmabull is a better gambler than lakerboy - we all know that's not true. But I'm saying that this fascination with "trendy" picks goes a little overboard sometimes.

Example: I got a shit-ton of kudos for taking the Dbacks 2 weeks ago for big money to upset the Nationals. Yet I got ridicule and no kudos for taking the favored Yankees in another posted play (Sunday night) that netted me even more money. Ditto last night for the Yankees as well (though I didn't bother to post my play).

My play tonight is Red Sox.. They win this game 7 out of 10 times. Their pitcher is better than the Yankees, their lineup will be better than the Yankees, and they're at home coming off a frustrating loss - so IMO human nature favors the Red Sox as well.

Also - in the previous Red Sox/Yankees series the better pitcher lost all 3 of the games. I like betting on the better pitchers this series because I think those things have a way of correcting themselves over time.

[illfuuptn]

Beckett is undoubtedly better than Hughes this year. At least enough to warrant a -125 or -135 at home, yes? I don't even think the most aggressive anti-public player in America could deny this.

Home field for the Red Sox is another .10

Fact that the Red Sox hit well but NOT clutch last night (stranding 16 baserunners despite having 10 hits off Sabathia) is huge. They will be focused and geared in tonight. I'd say that is good for another .20 or so.

The line as it opened at -160 was fair. Now there may be a twinge of value on the Yankees, but not much. Beckett has been phenomenal against NYY this season.

Gambling forums are great but they inherently encourage those who fade the public and take risks that are unlikely to pay off. Lakerboy gets more high fives for posting retarded plays that have a 1 in 4 chance of hitting than brahmabull got for sweating out a big money "square" play. I'm not saying that brahmabull is a better gambler than lakerboy - we all know that's not true. But I'm saying that this fascination with "trendy" picks goes a little overboard sometimes.

Example: I got a shit-ton of kudos for taking the Dbacks 2 weeks ago for big money to upset the Nationals. Yet I got ridicule and no kudos for taking the favored Yankees in another posted play (Sunday night) that netted me even more money. Ditto last night for the Yankees as well (though I didn't bother to post my play).

My play tonight is Red Sox.. They win this game 7 out of 10 times. Their pitcher is better than the Yankees, their lineup will be better than the Yankees, and they're at home coming off a frustrating loss - so IMO human nature favors the Red Sox as well.

Also - in the previous Red Sox/Yankees series the better pitcher lost all 3 of the games. I like betting on the better pitchers this series because I think those things have a way of correcting themselves over time.

I didn't say Beckett wasn't better than hughes. He's way better.

And actually the "sharp" play tonight is the Red Sox since they opened at -159 and are now at -172. In general, you'd be better off betting the side that got pricier or less valuable than betting the number that just got better. Just as with last night, I'm on the opposite side of "sharps" as well as the public.

[TheChancellor]

Beckett is undoubtedly better than Hughes this year. At least enough to warrant a -125 or -135 at home, yes? I don't even think the most aggressive anti-public player in America could deny this.

Home field for the Red Sox is another .10

Fact that the Red Sox hit well but NOT clutch last night (stranding 16 baserunners despite having 10 hits off Sabathia) is huge. They will be focused and geared in tonight. I'd say that is good for another .20 or so.

The line as it opened at -160 was fair. Now there may be a twinge of value on the Yankees, but not much. Beckett has been phenomenal against NYY this season.

Gambling forums are great but they inherently encourage those who fade the public and take risks that are unlikely to pay off. Lakerboy gets more high fives for posting retarded plays that have a 1 in 4 chance of hitting than brahmabull got for sweating out a big money "square" play. I'm not saying that brahmabull is a better gambler than lakerboy - we all know that's not true. But I'm saying that this fascination with "trendy" picks goes a little overboard sometimes.

Example: I got a shit-ton of kudos for taking the Dbacks 2 weeks ago for big money to upset the Nationals. Yet I got ridicule and no kudos for taking the favored Yankees in another posted play (Sunday night) that netted me even more money. Ditto last night for the Yankees as well (though I didn't bother to post my play).

My play tonight is Red Sox.. They win this game 7 out of 10 times. Their pitcher is better than the Yankees, their lineup will be better than the Yankees, and they're at home coming off a frustrating loss - so IMO human nature favors the Red Sox as well.

Also - in the previous Red Sox/Yankees series the better pitcher lost all 3 of the games. I like betting on the better pitchers this series because I think those things have a way of correcting themselves over time.

Well said my man, well said. Red sox or no bet, for me anyway.

[BettingWizard]