1. #1
    BiffTFinancial
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    Friday/Saturday/Sunday

    buoyed by the Eagles' stern cuffing of the Shoremen in Lorain County, HoG has more other hemisphere picks for the weekend (one Friday afternoon at 2:30). again, once CFB starts, will post these in my thread there, but for now, want to post them where they'll be easily found. BOL to all this weekend.

    **********

    Quick recap of recent action. First, the bad. The Fulham-Dinipro play was an awful tout. I overlooked the most obvious way the match would go – Dinipro, knowing they couldn't overcome 3 goals, would play for a good result and Fulham would be content to let them have 1-0. That's the Europa League for you. The good. Avon destroyed Avon Lake, 38-7. The -3 (up to -7) was covered at half with the Eagles up 24-0. Local caps of local games – gold. The modestly frustrating. Collingwood was in cruise control against Freo, easily covering the 70 at the end of the 3rd, but a lackluster 4th brought Freo into backdoor range before the Pies bumped it up to 80, which was the final margin. A bit too nervy for a play that should have eased home. A win is a win, though.

    Hawthorn -41' (Saturday, 12:15am). I love Hawthorn's form at the moment. A win in this match sews up third place for them, and I have to think they'd rather play Geelong than Collingwood in the first round. I generally try to avoid Western games because they're an unpredictable side. One week they beat Carlton, the next they lose to the Roos. They're so unpredictable, I didn't even feel comfortable playing them against Port last week. I really like Hawthorn, though, so I'll put my faith in them – this should be an 8+ goal rout.

    North Melbourne +4' (Saturday, 5:15am). I'll ride the Roos one last time as they fight for their playoff lives. And why not? – HoG tipped the Roos many weeks ago to rise from the ashes and make the final 8. The Saints are more or less in the same boat needing a win to make the playoffs (assuming a loss to Carlton next week). The sides played a brutal match several weeks ago with the Saints winning by 9 (12.7 to 10.10). For this go around, though, I'm betting Nick Reiwoldt's knee isn't healthy and, if right, that will really hurt the Saints. I think another close match is in store, but this time I think the Roos edge the Saints. I'll take the points.

    Essendon -69' (Sunday, 2:45am). Essendon need a huge victory to improve their tiebreaker status against St. Kilda and Sydney, and this is their last chance to do it. Port is an abomination, trailing at one stage last week against Western, 62-0. I think the Bombers win this by triple digits.

    Finally, if you're looking for a longshot to play, Brisbane at +265 isn't a bad option. At a minimum, I'd avoid betting West Coast in this fixture.

    In the Tri-Nations, Australia and New Zealand square off for the title in the final real tune-up ahead of the World Cup.

    New Zealand -5' (Satuday, 6am). The All-Blacks more or less held open tryouts in South Africa last week because, IMO, they knew the Tri-Nations was theirs with a win over the Wallabies this week. Homefield should make it a closer tie than the rout in New Zealand, but I'll take the best team in the world fielding its top XV to win by more than a try.

    In Germany and England, I have a couple plays. A word of caution, though – HoG's total plays don't have a great track record. If these two flame out, I'll leave Finstock to navigate the choppy waters of totals and retire from them ala infernal Canuck football (love Montreal +1/ML, btw).

    Stuttgart PK at +120 (Friday, 2:30pm). I think Stuttgart are the better side and they're playing in form despite 4 points from their opening 3 matches. They were unlucky to lose to Leverkusen and had Gladbach on the ropes in the final 20 minutes. Hertha has yet to record a victory and only managed a draw against a really suspect Hamburg side (though, they probably deserved full points). I think Stuttgart is the better bet to win in this spot, but it's a road fixture for them, so I'll take the PK and guard against the draw. Finstock will also, hopefully, be on the Stuttgart PK.

    Hamburg/Cologne OVER 2.75 at -113 (Saturday, 9:30am). Neither of these sides plays defense. They've allowed a combined 19 goals in 6 matches. Unfortunately, they're offense also sucks (5 combined goals). I think defensive ineptitude will trump poor offense. I think this especially true for Hamburg who have had the misfortune of playing the league's top two sides. I think Hamburg gets at least 2 and is shoddy enough on defense to concede at least one. I'll take my chances on finding a 4th somewhere.

    Leverkusen/Dortmund UNDER 2.5 at -106 (Saturday, 12:30pm). The week's biggest tie. I'd like to back Dortmund in this fixture at +175, but their first road showing gives me considerable pause. Leverkusen have been outstanding defensively, having not conceded in over 180 minutes. I think Leverkusen is able to frustrate Dortmund and hold them to no more than a goal. I think 1-1 is the most likely outcome.

    Sunderland PK at +125 (Bookmaker) (Saturday, 10am). I think Sunderland are still a fairly decent side while Swansea are going to fight Norwich for bottom of the table. On the whole, I think Sunderland ought to be favored, slightly, in this match (Sunderland ML is a great value, IMO at +216). I'll take the Black Cats on the PK to defend against a dour 0-0 or 1-1 draw, but I think they get the result in Wales.

    Finally, the Boro-Coventry over should be a nice play in the Championship on Saturday.

    I may have some Sunday plays. I'm inclined to continue riding City and ManU as well as, possibly splashing around with the Gladbach-Schalke over. Spain and Italy may have something to offer, too. We'll see how Saturday goes.


    2011 YTD

    Aussie Rules: 20-7
    Rugby: 3-0
    Soccer: 8-7
    Lorain County High School Football: 1-0
    CFL: 1-3

    **************
    in case it is not clear, there are a few references to "Finstock." that's my other friend who caps soccer.
    Last edited by BiffTFinancial; 08-26-11 at 02:20 PM.

  2. #2
    face
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    appreciated the avon high school football pick, i tailed just for fun

  3. #3
    freshguy222
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    so you buy these picks from someone or are they yours?

  4. #4
    BiffTFinancial
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    Quote Originally Posted by face View Post
    appreciated the avon high school football pick, i tailed just for fun
    thanks, face. yes, that was a fun.

  5. #5
    BiffTFinancial
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    Quote Originally Posted by freshguy222 View Post
    so you buy these picks from someone or are they yours?
    neither. this is a friend of mine who posts his picks a couple of other places and who authorized me to post them here. never bought a pick in my life, never will. never sold a pick, never would. i had been posting them with my baseball picks, and he's been hot, so i've continued posting them since a few people had expressed their interest. HoG and another friend of mine are way into soccer, and i've been tailing them for a couple of years. if either ever tried to charge for picks, i'd stop speaking to them as soon as i stopped laughing. no offense, but touts are charlatans, period. and, to be clear, i would not expect HoG to remain this sizzling hot (he'd be the first to echo that sentiment).

    the aussie rules and rugby are new for HoG, but he's been doing very well, which i think was part of the reason that he stepped out with the high school game last night. long story short, this is a meager effort to liven up our excruciatingly dull day jobs with sporting events played during the day. the best part for me is, all i have to do is book my plays, i've outsourced the capping.

  6. #6
    freshguy222
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    thanks for the infos will tail the aussie rules and rugby
    i didnt really think that you bought them but i didnt fully understand the beginning of your post and it sounded like you bought it although i doubted it cuz you dont seem like a guy who buys picks
    dont know about the soccer picks as i come from germany myself and the stuttgart looks really crazy and myabe like a trap
    but i agree with the schalke over (its my team and their offense is clicking and their defense is put toegther completely new and odesnt work well yet im only concerned because therey on the road and sometimes theyre offense isnt as clicking on the road

  7. #7
    LovetoSpooge
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    I think the hawthorn line is pretty close, no play for me. I'm taking Geelong at the line this afternoon and agree on North Melbourne tonight. I'll also be taking melbourne at the line tomorrow. Had a nice win on collingwood last night hoping for the AFL sweep this weekend.

  8. #8
    BiffTFinancial
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    Quote Originally Posted by freshguy222 View Post
    thanks for the infos will tail the aussie rules and rugby i didnt really think that you bought them but i didnt fully understand the beginning of your post and it sounded like you bought it although i doubted it cuz you dont seem like a guy who buys picks dont know about the soccer picks as i come from germany myself and the stuttgart looks really crazy and myabe like a trap but i agree with the schalke over (its my team and their offense is clicking and their defense is put toegther completely new and odesnt work well yet im only concerned because therey on the road and sometimes theyre offense isnt as clicking on the road
    thanks, pal, no worries, your question was completely understandable. also, really appreciate your thoughts on Stuttgart and Schalke. as i said, i'm a soccer neophyte, at least in capping it, so i enjoy any insight, particularly from someone who would know about the Bundesliga first-hand. i don't have a problem with other people buying picks (it's their money, their decision) but i have a serious problem with people who take advantage of other people (which i think that a lot of touts do). BOL to you this weekend.

  9. #9
    BiffTFinancial
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    Quote Originally Posted by LovetoSpooge View Post
    I think the hawthorn line is pretty close, no play for me. I'm taking Geelong at the line this afternoon and agree on North Melbourne tonight. I'll also be taking melbourne at the line tomorrow. Had a nice win on collingwood last night hoping for the AFL sweep this weekend.
    let's get it, thank for your AFL thoughts.

  10. #10
    BiffTFinancial
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    Stuttgart pk - LOSER

    Stuttgart looked to be the better side, but ceded a goal at 87'. harsh loss, thought we'd at least get a push. bah.

  11. #11
    BiffTFinancial
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    so far

    Hawthorn -41' - WINNER
    North Melbourne +4' - LOSER

    New Zealand -5' - LOSER

    Stuttgart PK at +120 - LOSER

    Hamburg/Cologne OVER 2.75 at -113 - WINNER
    Sunderland PK at +125 - PUSH

    2-3-1 with Dortmund under about to start and Essendon pending Sunday.

  12. #12
    BiffTFinancial
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    Leverkusen/Dortmund under - WINNER

    3-3-1 so far on the weekend with Essendon pending.

  13. #13
    BiffTFinancial
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    Additional Sunday Picks from HoG

    A total meh Friday/Saturday for HoG. On the pitch, a decent effort. The German totals were easy winners. The two PK plays were, as the matches played out, coin toss matches where I had a plus bet. A bad break not to get something from those, but that's soccer. In the southern hemisphere, Hawthorn nearly kicked their way out of a cover, but managed to get the job done. The Roos tout was horrendous. A lesson learned -- I actually spent a lot of time reading up on match analysis for that tie. Lesson: the less I know about Aussie Rules, the better. In Tri-Nations, the All-Blacks didn't show up in the first half, and found themselves down 20-3 at the break. They dominated the 2nd half, but ended up losing. So, on the whole, a 3-3-1 effort. Blah.

    Manchester City ML at +149 (Sunday, 8:30am).
    I think this is City's year to really push United, and they look like it early. Spurs are, I think, still finding themselves after a disappointing off-season. I don't usually tout value bets, but I think City at +149 is a great value play -- I think they are at least 50% to get the result.

    Manchester United -1 at -125 (Sunday, 11:00am).
    More EPL chalk. I don't have any doubt that the Red Devils get a result here. Arse, despite a good mid-week result in Italy, are still not where they need to be to push United. ManU's young guns looked brilliant last week. I'll give the goal feeling that a push is the worst-case scenario.

    Schalke-Gladbach OVER 2.75 at -106 (Sunday, 11:30am).
    This has over written all over it. Schalke score goals in bunches and concede with consistency. Gladbach have scored in each of their first 3 fixtures, which has included some good competition. I look for those trends to continue as each side will score and I think each will get a second.

    Cocoa, Florida +9' at -120 (Sunday at 3:00pm). As a general rule, I think you should avoid HS plays unless they're local. Intersectional plays, in particular, are difficult to cap. But, I'm going to play this game on a couple principles. First, Florida HS football is better than Ohio HS football. Second, Cocoa has demonstrated an ability to beat big school powerhouses on the road (winning in Texas against defending 5A champ Abilene last season). Third, the local take on Colerain is that it isn't a true powerhouse Colerain team. They're good, but not on par with some of their great squads. Based on those principles, I'll play Florida's small school powerhouse with the points in Cincinnati.

  14. #14
    BiffTFinancial
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    ended up 5-6-1 on the weekend. bah.

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