buoyed by the Eagles' stern cuffing of the Shoremen in Lorain County, HoG has more other hemisphere picks for the weekend (one Friday afternoon at 2:30). again, once CFB starts, will post these in my thread there, but for now, want to post them where they'll be easily found. BOL to all this weekend.
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Quick recap of recent action. First, the bad. The Fulham-Dinipro play was an awful tout. I overlooked the most obvious way the match would go – Dinipro, knowing they couldn't overcome 3 goals, would play for a good result and Fulham would be content to let them have 1-0. That's the Europa League for you. The good. Avon destroyed Avon Lake, 38-7. The -3 (up to -7) was covered at half with the Eagles up 24-0. Local caps of local games – gold. The modestly frustrating. Collingwood was in cruise control against Freo, easily covering the 70 at the end of the 3rd, but a lackluster 4th brought Freo into backdoor range before the Pies bumped it up to 80, which was the final margin. A bit too nervy for a play that should have eased home. A win is a win, though.
Hawthorn -41' (Saturday, 12:15am). I love Hawthorn's form at the moment. A win in this match sews up third place for them, and I have to think they'd rather play Geelong than Collingwood in the first round. I generally try to avoid Western games because they're an unpredictable side. One week they beat Carlton, the next they lose to the Roos. They're so unpredictable, I didn't even feel comfortable playing them against Port last week. I really like Hawthorn, though, so I'll put my faith in them – this should be an 8+ goal rout.
North Melbourne +4' (Saturday, 5:15am). I'll ride the Roos one last time as they fight for their playoff lives. And why not? – HoG tipped the Roos many weeks ago to rise from the ashes and make the final 8. The Saints are more or less in the same boat needing a win to make the playoffs (assuming a loss to Carlton next week). The sides played a brutal match several weeks ago with the Saints winning by 9 (12.7 to 10.10). For this go around, though, I'm betting Nick Reiwoldt's knee isn't healthy and, if right, that will really hurt the Saints. I think another close match is in store, but this time I think the Roos edge the Saints. I'll take the points.
Essendon -69' (Sunday, 2:45am). Essendon need a huge victory to improve their tiebreaker status against St. Kilda and Sydney, and this is their last chance to do it. Port is an abomination, trailing at one stage last week against Western, 62-0. I think the Bombers win this by triple digits.
Finally, if you're looking for a longshot to play, Brisbane at +265 isn't a bad option. At a minimum, I'd avoid betting West Coast in this fixture.
In the Tri-Nations, Australia and New Zealand square off for the title in the final real tune-up ahead of the World Cup.
New Zealand -5' (Satuday, 6am). The All-Blacks more or less held open tryouts in South Africa last week because, IMO, they knew the Tri-Nations was theirs with a win over the Wallabies this week. Homefield should make it a closer tie than the rout in New Zealand, but I'll take the best team in the world fielding its top XV to win by more than a try.
In Germany and England, I have a couple plays. A word of caution, though – HoG's total plays don't have a great track record. If these two flame out, I'll leave Finstock to navigate the choppy waters of totals and retire from them ala infernal Canuck football (love Montreal +1/ML, btw).
Stuttgart PK at +120 (Friday, 2:30pm). I think Stuttgart are the better side and they're playing in form despite 4 points from their opening 3 matches. They were unlucky to lose to Leverkusen and had Gladbach on the ropes in the final 20 minutes. Hertha has yet to record a victory and only managed a draw against a really suspect Hamburg side (though, they probably deserved full points). I think Stuttgart is the better bet to win in this spot, but it's a road fixture for them, so I'll take the PK and guard against the draw. Finstock will also, hopefully, be on the Stuttgart PK.
Hamburg/Cologne OVER 2.75 at -113 (Saturday, 9:30am). Neither of these sides plays defense. They've allowed a combined 19 goals in 6 matches. Unfortunately, they're offense also sucks (5 combined goals). I think defensive ineptitude will trump poor offense. I think this especially true for Hamburg who have had the misfortune of playing the league's top two sides. I think Hamburg gets at least 2 and is shoddy enough on defense to concede at least one. I'll take my chances on finding a 4th somewhere.
Leverkusen/Dortmund UNDER 2.5 at -106 (Saturday, 12:30pm). The week's biggest tie. I'd like to back Dortmund in this fixture at +175, but their first road showing gives me considerable pause. Leverkusen have been outstanding defensively, having not conceded in over 180 minutes. I think Leverkusen is able to frustrate Dortmund and hold them to no more than a goal. I think 1-1 is the most likely outcome.
Sunderland PK at +125 (Bookmaker) (Saturday, 10am). I think Sunderland are still a fairly decent side while Swansea are going to fight Norwich for bottom of the table. On the whole, I think Sunderland ought to be favored, slightly, in this match (Sunderland ML is a great value, IMO at +216). I'll take the Black Cats on the PK to defend against a dour 0-0 or 1-1 draw, but I think they get the result in Wales.
Finally, the Boro-Coventry over should be a nice play in the Championship on Saturday.
I may have some Sunday plays. I'm inclined to continue riding City and ManU as well as, possibly splashing around with the Gladbach-Schalke over. Spain and Italy may have something to offer, too. We'll see how Saturday goes.
2011 YTD
Aussie Rules: 20-7
Rugby: 3-0
Soccer: 8-7
Lorain County High School Football: 1-0
CFL: 1-3
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in case it is not clear, there are a few references to "Finstock." that's my other friend who caps soccer.