1. #1
    Bloodhail
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    Join Date: 06-30-11
    Posts: 43

    Line Predictions for 8/24

    Overview: I have created a tool that creates the fair ML for each game. It generates the ML based on all of the info I provide it. It calculates the expected runs for each team at a neutral park (based on each team's current lineup that has been) and then adjusts it to the SP/Bullpen they are facing along with an adjustment to the park factors for where they are hitting. I update the lineups daily, so for example, the Marlins lineup does not include Hanley Ramirez since he is out. I also tweak the SP/bullpen expected innings pitched for the game along with expected runs given up to reflect in a way that reflects more about how they will perform as opposed to how they have performed. Most of the lines generated are extremely close to what they are in most sportsbooks because I'm sure this is pretty much identical to how they create initial lines and then tweak them based on public perception. I highlight lines that are off by more than 0.20 and review them for additional analysis to see if I want to upgrade them to "plays".

    Season: 12-7-1, +7.70

    Just thought it would be fun to post my opening lines for 8/24 games. Feel free to offer your opinions or guesses as to what you think the opening lines are gonna be!

    Team | My Line | Predicted Opening Pinny Line | My Total | Predicted Opening Pinny Total

    Mariners | -100 | -103 | 7.39 | 7.5
    Indians | -100 | -103

    Brewers
    Pirates

    Mets | +140 | +154 | 9.07 | 9
    Phillies | -140 | -164 |

    Dodgers| +147 | +142 | 7.32 | 7
    Cardinals| -147 | -151 |


    Astros | +125 | +134| 8.41 | 9
    Rockies| -125 | -142 |


    DBacks| -100 | -120| 7.61 | 7.5
    Nationals| -100 | +112 |


    Athletics| +219 | +240| 8.32 | 8.5
    Yankees| -219 | -255 |


    Royals| +206| +200| 8.77 | 8.5
    Blue Jays| -206| -218|


    Red Sox| -102| -125| 8.78 | 8.5
    Rangers| +102| +117|


    Reds| +125| -115| 7.57 | 8
    Marlins| -125| +108|


    Tigers| +101| +101| 9.22 | 8.5
    Rays| -101| -107|


    Braves| -128| -125| 8.99 | N/A
    Cubs| +128| +117|


    Orioles| +111| +117| 9.15 | 9
    Twins| -111| -125|


    White Sox| +146| +183| 7.43 | 7.5
    Angels| -146| -200|


    Padres| +148| +160| 6.73 | 6.5
    Giants| -148| -173|


    Last edited by Bloodhail; 08-23-11 at 03:02 PM.

  2. #2
    Bloodhail
    Bloodhail's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-30-11
    Posts: 43

    Lines are up! Nothing too surprising, was pretty close on most of them. Totals are going to be up in a minute. Wandy Rodriguez is going to be pitching against the team that is likely going to acquire him later this week...something to keep in mind.

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