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Books still giving away free money with Brewers Game 1?
They got slaughtered over the weekend with Milwaukee as a short fave and supposed RLM favoring the Mets, who lost every game. Same thing's happening so far today, with the Brewers only -111 now against a fading Karstens and fading Pirates squad. So does the free public money continue?
Braun and Fielder are playing Game 1. No McGehee.
Brewers have beaten the Pirates 12 straight times, yet they're only -111. Interesting.
I agree. Very fishy indeed...however the books have been off on the Brewers' lines for over a week. Ride the money train until something stops it.
as a contrarian i like the pirates, but how you can bet against the brewers in this matchup at this time at this price is mind boggling
I'm in the same boat. I took the Mets twice and got burned, and this looks like even more of a trap/sure thing.Originally Posted by thebestthereis
as a contrarian i like the pirates, but how you can bet against the brewers in this matchup at this time at this price is mind boggling
Exactly. Naverson is trash...amazing that the Brewers don't have anyone better, even a young arm. But it is unwise to bet against this team until they cool off.as a contrarian i like the pirates, but how you can bet against the brewers in this matchup at this time at this price is mind boggling
The contrarin theory went 0-3 over the weekend versus the mutts. Brewers we underpriced all weekend, yet still swept and pulled off a comeback victory in a game where the mutts scored 9 runs.
They are going to lose at one point, but I don't see how there is any value in taking Pittsburgh today. Brewers or no play until the Pirates prove they can beat this team imho.
Taking Milwaukee here, Karstens hasnt looked too hot lately...and hes beeon torched by the brewers before.
narveson off the dl under non-normal conditions (cut on his hand) and not pitching in two weeks. pirates do hit lefties well at home and have been hitting but stranding runners. a split in these two games is what i expect. at only +105 or less very tough to invest.
The reason for the short price on Milwaukee today is Narveson and his thumb injury. As you guys know from your baseball days, throwing a baseball, especially for a pitcher, puts a great deal of stress on the thumb. On various pitches, he has to hold the ball on his thumb across the laces. This grip, plus the stress put onto the thumb from the throwing motion, could easily cause that thumb to rupture open from where he cut it with the scissors. If Narveson goes down early, they have to go to somewhat tired bullpen. Albeit a very good bullpen. Even though Karstens has regressed, his numbers in August show a big increase over July when that regression began. That is why I believe the line is as low as it is. With that said, however, I would lean to the Brewers in both games but hope they lose the first game so I can play them in the second.
Be careful here NC
I love the Brewers in game 2 and sweeping a DH isnt easy
that being said, this line does appear off
No play for me
I doubt they'd pitch Narveson unless he was 100% ready though, LTA.
I used to love to fade this guy -- might have to return to the good old days this afternoon.
pick brewers in game2 if they lose game-1.
Karstens is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA in seven starts against the Brewers, giving up a startling 11 homers in his last 27 2/3 innings. Fielder has taken him deep three times in 15 at-bats, while Ryan Bruan has homered twice in 19.
Both are in the lineup today
Agreed ride the hot team thats chasing a pennant.The Brewers are 36-51 at PNC lifetime but theres also been some bad Brewer teams over the years that can never win on the road.They are hot but still 29-36 on the road this year.Narvason is 3-0 against them, winning at PNC last May.Karstsens is 0-4 against the Brewers with his team being 1-6 behind him.Im wondering what the % of teams that sweep in there first road series win the first game in the following road series.I wish Narveson was better than 2-4 on the road this year with a 5.11 era.Could they be thinkin let down?
Quite the opposite...he's not 100% according to Roenicke, the Brewer's manager.
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/128134443.html
The pertinent quote is: "It's not 100%, but he looked really good."
Good luck in whatever you choose
LTA didnt know that about Naveson,they might have to go to the bullpen early,and he walks alot of batters to begin with.Thank You BOL
brewers will not continue like this, but the problem is this "even" odds in game 1. the better bet actually is game 2 (pirates) theoretically. i might throw a small chunk on the pirates in game 1 just because. this is the steal game for them and the game the brewers are "less interested in". good spot but this is a total contrarian play, nothing else. betting against the brewers right now at even odds vs a team they DOMINATE is retarded. i need major luck. almost want two bets, ml and rl pirates.
Yet he's only -111 with the red-hot, vastly superior team?
I would take over or no play first game. If the Brewers lose the first game I see no way they lose the second.
Why would you throw him today then with an 8.5-game lead in the Central? Makes no sense.Quite the opposite...he's not 100% according to Roenicke, the Brewer's manager.
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/128134443.html
The pertinent quote is: "It's not 100%, but he looked really good."
Good luck in whatever you choose
I'm thinking the same thing -- just for some action.brewers will not continue like this, but the problem is this "even" odds in game 1. the better bet actually is game 2 (pirates) theoretically. i might throw a small chunk on the pirates in game 1 just because. this is the steal game for them and the game the brewers are "less interested in". good spot but this is a total contrarian play, nothing else. betting against the brewers right now at even odds vs a team they DOMINATE is retarded. i need major luck. almost want two bets, ml and rl pirates.
No reason for Milwaukee not to at least be -125 in this spot. The fact that it even opened so low (-117) indicates something.
Coaches look at him,throw a side.OK he looks good to go,they ask him how he feels, he says good to go.Until he faces live hitting away from home.That blister,strain he has is going to start to hurt even more,and he's out by the 3rd innig.Most pitchers if there just hurting alittle bit and think they can go.Always take the ball.
let's get it
Gentlemen, no one in the Brewers line up is hitting Karstens
with much success except Braun. Fielder is at .214 and the rest
of the brew crew is near the mendoza line, with that said, does anyone
know Karstens day/night splits i was under the impression he has been lights out
during day games?
pirates win first game
Coin, It has to be that maybe he is a little nicked up.The Brewers put up runs against that shitty Mets pitching and bullpen maybe does not impress the books.Before the Mets series they werent puttin up alot of runs at all, there batting 2.44 as a team over the last 7 games and had alot of hit against the Mets.Bottom line they man handled a shitty Mets pitching staff.
True.
The RLM in that series was a joke, though -- and dead-wrong every time.
Double Header, and they have a 8.5 lead,
and the only pitch you use your thumb on is the curve ball- Change up, no thumb, Fast ball very little thumb.
The line IMO is -111 because of the unknown here.
Brewers bullpen is pretty fresh sans K-Rod.
The best thing for the rest of the year is to Bet the Brewers cause IMO you will win more than you will lose!!!
2-5, 3.51 era.
Narveson throws a lot of curves though doesn't he?
Pretty sure the curve is his bread and butter pitch.
If I did bet this.. I would square andx and fall into the trap.
NO DOUBT How does the Under/over look?
Curve Change up, Fastball Do you really think they would put him out their if he wasnt ready!!
This game you gotta watch out for, cause the Brewers Just Swept the Mets and they MAY be in the I dont give a Shat mode!
Grienke in Game two is throwning lights out in his last three starts, think I will Parley that with the Phillies, Phillies belive it or not have to win tonight, or things could start to get very intersting for them..
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