1. #1
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    A play I recommend tonight

    At least keep an eye on it:

    Seattle RL (+105) at Tampa Bay

    Money line opened at -190 and has climbed to -198 in favor of the Rays. The Rays RL, however, opened at -125 and is now down to -114.

    If this crosses into - territory, it might be worth a decent-sized play. I think the Mariners win tonight or, at worst, lose by a run in a low-scoring game.

    Just my take.

  2. #2
    God1
    God1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-18-11
    Posts: 848

    this means you should be betting the rays RL as the ML market is far bigger and more efficient than the RL market

  3. #3
    Bengals28
    Success is one thing, Impact is another
    Bengals28's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-20-11
    Posts: 2,164

    I like the play, Rays offense is very streaky too. BOL.

  4. #4
    HoulihansTX
    Bowl $ea$on
    HoulihansTX's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-11-09
    Posts: 30,566
    Betpoints: 295

    I expect a low scoring game so the RL may have some value.

  5. #5
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by God1 View Post
    this means you should be betting the rays RL as the ML market is far bigger and more efficient than the RL market
    A) It's a huge public play -- both RL and ML -- so any moves in Tampa's favor are borderline irrelevant.

    B) The ML has only moved 8 cents.

    So let me get this straight: the Tampa RL has dropped from -125 to -114, no one in the world is on Seattle +1.5, so I should bet Tampa on the RL? WTF?

  6. #6
    God1
    God1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-18-11
    Posts: 848

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    So let me get this straight: the Tampa RL has dropped from -125 to -114, no one in the world is on Seattle +1.5, so I should bet Tampa on the RL? WTF?
    I thought you were saying that since the ML went from -190 to -198 and the RL went in the reverse direction with the rays getting cheaper(-125 to -114)....that seattle was a play based on that. Did I misinterpret you?

    If that's what you were saying then it means you should play the rays RL

  7. #7
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by God1 View Post
    I thought you were saying that since the ML went from -190 to -198 and the RL went in the reverse direction with the rays getting cheaper(-125 to -114)....that seattle was a play based on that. Did I misinterpret you?

    If that's what you were saying then it means you should play the rays RL
    Why would I play the Rays RL with that kind of RLM?

  8. #8
    God1
    God1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-18-11
    Posts: 848

    lol jesus

    The ML market is more efficient and much larger than the RL market, therefore the ML market is far more likely to arrive at the correct price.

    If the ML market thinks the rays should be more expensive, then they should be. The much smaller and less efficient RL market making the rays cheaper is therefore wrong and presents an opportunity.

    Slow enough for you?

  9. #9
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by God1 View Post
    lol jesus

    The ML market is more efficient and much larger than the RL market, therefore the ML market is far more likely to arrive at the correct price.

    If the ML market thinks the rays should be more expensive, then they should be. The much smaller and less efficient RL market making the rays cheaper is therefore wrong and presents an opportunity.

    Slow enough for you?
    I had the numbers reversed in my book. My bad. Seattle is -115 on the RL -- not +105. Never mind -- had it written down wrong. Tampa RL is +105.

    In any event, I still think Seattle is worth considering on the RL.

  10. #10
    God1
    God1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-18-11
    Posts: 848

    I think seattle ML is a much better bet, why pay extra juice on a RL?

  11. #11
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by God1 View Post
    I think seattle ML is a much better bet, why pay extra juice on a RL?
    At + money, I would take the RL just to be safe.

    Since it's -115, you're probably right. Still, I hate taking big ML dogs on the road when it's an inferior team that finds ways to lose like Seattle did last night.

  12. #12
    warriorfan707
    SBR Poster of the Milennium
    warriorfan707's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-29-08
    Posts: 13,698

    under 8.5 is free money

  13. #13
    HoulihansTX
    Bowl $ea$on
    HoulihansTX's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-11-09
    Posts: 30,566
    Betpoints: 295

    Seattle ML is a good fade.

    Tampa ticket go up in flames.

  14. #14
    face
    face's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-31-11
    Posts: 14,740
    Betpoints: 201

    i already bet rays -1.5 at plus money. did not want to pay rays juice. gl

  15. #15
    TPA
    TPA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-11
    Posts: 177

    Im with Warriorfan707...Rays take it 4-1

  16. #16
    lunchbawks
    NB#
    lunchbawks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-31-10
    Posts: 12,873
    Betpoints: 173

    furbush gets it done.

  17. #17
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,589
    Betpoints: 15121

    Don't spend too much time on watching line movements. Just cap your plays properly and youl'll be fine.

  18. #18
    Luv2Play2
    Luv2Play2's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-10
    Posts: 2,461
    Betpoints: 225

    IM 15 mins from the park.. no F'nn way i play the M's not ever on the road..

  19. #19
    warriorfan707
    SBR Poster of the Milennium
    warriorfan707's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-29-08
    Posts: 13,698

    Mariners are garbage on the road, absolute garbage, worst offense in AL and it aint even close

Top