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June 8 Ganchalysis
Cincinnati 64% - Rusch has had a very high degree of volatility in his starts. Over the course of his career, he has usually gotten hit hard but has still managed some sharp performances. Arroyo's excellence is likely to fade in the near future. The Cincinnati pen is very sub-par and has been extended recently.
Toronto 76% - Halladay has been having great success lately with few strikeouts and very low pitch counts. The Toronto pen is extended recently but that factor is rather minimal here. Toronto has been hitting lefties well and Loewen enhances the likelihood of a continuation of these tendencies.
Houston 54% - Both starters have been experiencing a sharp reversal from expected form which could be due to any of a number of possible underlying factors but in this situation, Pettitte is more likely to return to his previous standard. Both pens are shaky, but the Atlanta offense has been more productive, and more likely to push Pettitte into another bad outing.
Boston 53% - The Yankees' replacements have produced as well as the injured stars would have been expected to produce. Both pens are at maximum performance now after the rainout, which benefits the Yankees thinner, but still quality roster. Wright, while very sub-par overall, tends to have very low volatility in his outings regardless of his opponents -- which works in the Yankees’ favor against hard-hitting Boston. Schilling benefits quite a bit from the extra day of rest, as his 2 starts against the Yankees this year anecdotally attest.
Arizona 52% - Both starters have been very volatile in their performances and both offenses are strong. Combined with a hitter-friendly park this implies a high degree of uncertainty for this game.
Detroit 55% - Garland has not performed well vs strong offenses this year, and the White Sox are having trouble vs lefties. Coming off of 2 close road losses also benefits Detroit. The White Sox' pen is also at less than maximum expected performance.
San Francisco 53% - Pittsburgh has the more productive offense at this point, and San Francisco underperforms vs lefties. Both starters have had mediocre performance numbers and low volatility making the modest edge Pittsburgh has in the pen all the more important a factor.
Texas 61% - Snyder is making his first start of the season, and although he has been terrible in the majors to date, some of his question marks could be answered positively tonight. Loe has been hit hard recently, and his expected performance for tonight’s outing against the road favorite is uncertain. The Texas pen has been unpredictable this year, and this is not an optimal spot for them with Cordero’s production uncertain. The Kansas City pen has been extremely unpredictable this year, both in terms of who is used and how they perform, which actually works in Kansas City’s favor due to diminished expectations.
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