[ebbearsfb1]

long term,..... im strictly asking, so lets not all get excited and get your panties in a bunch...
yes i know 30% of games end up in 1 run win/loses.


so could playing the -1.5 on both teams work long term?

Testing
1) Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +145 vs. Chicago Cubs Risk 5 to win 7.25
2) Chicago Cubs -1.5 +190 vs. Cincinnati Reds Risk 5 to Win 9.5
3) Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 +155 vs. San Diego Padres Risk 5 to Win 7.75
4) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres -1.5 +200 Risk 5 to Win 10
5) Atlanta Braves -1.5 +135 vs. New York Mets Risk 5 to Win 6.75
6) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets -1.5 + 210 Risk 5 to Win 10.50
7) Florida Marlins -1.5 +170 vs. Saint Louis Cardinals Risk 5 to Win 8.5
8) Florida Marlins vs. Saint Louis Cardinals -1.5 +180 Risk 5 to Win 9
9) Colorado Rockies -1.5 +165 vs. Washington Nationals Risk 5 to Win 8.25
10) Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals -1.5 +185 Risk 5 to Win 9.25
11) Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 +150 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Risk 5 to Win 7.5
12) Arizona Diamondbacks -vs. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +200 Risk 5 to Win 10
13) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 + 145 vs. San Francisco Giants Risk 5 to Win 7.25
14) Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants -1.5 +210 Risk 5 to Win 10.50
15) Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 + 150 vs. Baltimore Orioles Risk 5 to Win 7.50
16) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +190 Risk 5 to Win 9.50
17) Boston Red Sox -1.5 + 130 vs. New York Yankees Risk 5 to Win 6.50
18) Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees -1.5 +220 Risk 5 to Win 11
19) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +125 vs. Oakland A’s Risk 5 to Win 6.25
20) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland A’s -1.5 +235 Risk 5 to Win 11.75
21) Texas Rangers -1.5 +135 vs. Cleveland Indians Risk 5 to Win 6.75
22) Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians -1.5 +220 Risk 5 to Win 11
23) Chicago White Sox -1.5 + 145 vs. Minnesota Twins Risk 5 to Win 7.25
24) Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins -1.5 +190 Risk 5 to Win 9.50
25) Detroit Tigers -1.5 +150 vs. Kansas City Royals Risk 5 to Win 7.50
26) Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals -1.5 +150 Risk 5 to Win 7.50

[ebbearsfb1]

lot of views no responses

[ravitri2k]

I remember a thread by someone who used to play dogs and RL for favorites on the same game and it was quite profitable for sometime.

[EXhoosier10]

I'd say depends on which book for sure. Some books offer much better prop bets than others. Try finding the stats for amount of 1 run games. RL's are a lot lower (lower meaning +120 instead of +150) after the AS break for whatever reason, so i'm sure starting this now isn't the best time frame.

[GemSportsPicks]

It can be very profitable, but you need to pick the right spot to get in... YOu will make doe every day for like 10 days in a row if you get in at the right time... But that one bad day, where there are like 6 1 run games absolutely crushes you.

[EXhoosier10]

That's deep, Gem. Good thinking!

[GemSportsPicks]

hahaha thanks wouldn't really say its that deep... but it is all to true... All us degenerates overlook one thing when gambling... Winning at this isn't about how good you are really... I mean it is a little, but it is so much more about timing.

[snapperman2]

long term,..... im strictly asking, so lets not all get excited and get your panties in a bunch...
yes i know 30% of games end up in 1 run win/loses.


so could playing the -1.5 on both teams work long term?

Testing
1) Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +145 vs. Chicago Cubs Risk 5 to win 7.25
2) Chicago Cubs -1.5 +190 vs. Cincinnati Reds Risk 5 to Win 9.5
3) Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 +155 vs. San Diego Padres Risk 5 to Win 7.75
4) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres -1.5 +200 Risk 5 to Win 10
5) Atlanta Braves -1.5 +135 vs. New York Mets Risk 5 to Win 6.75
6) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets -1.5 + 210 Risk 5 to Win 10.50
7) Florida Marlins -1.5 +170 vs. Saint Louis Cardinals Risk 5 to Win 8.5
8) Florida Marlins vs. Saint Louis Cardinals -1.5 +180 Risk 5 to Win 9
9) Colorado Rockies -1.5 +165 vs. Washington Nationals Risk 5 to Win 8.25
10) Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals -1.5 +185 Risk 5 to Win 9.25
11) Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 +150 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Risk 5 to Win 7.5
12) Arizona Diamondbacks -vs. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +200 Risk 5 to Win 10
13) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 + 145 vs. San Francisco Giants Risk 5 to Win 7.25
14) Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants -1.5 +210 Risk 5 to Win 10.50
15) Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 + 150 vs. Baltimore Orioles Risk 5 to Win 7.50
16) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +190 Risk 5 to Win 9.50
17) Boston Red Sox -1.5 + 130 vs. New York Yankees Risk 5 to Win 6.50
18) Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees -1.5 +220 Risk 5 to Win 11
19) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +125 vs. Oakland A’s Risk 5 to Win 6.25
20) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland A’s -1.5 +235 Risk 5 to Win 11.75
21) Texas Rangers -1.5 +135 vs. Cleveland Indians Risk 5 to Win 6.75
22) Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians -1.5 +220 Risk 5 to Win 11
23) Chicago White Sox -1.5 + 145 vs. Minnesota Twins Risk 5 to Win 7.25
24) Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins -1.5 +190 Risk 5 to Win 9.50
25) Detroit Tigers -1.5 +150 vs. Kansas City Royals Risk 5 to Win 7.50
26) Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals -1.5 +150 Risk 5 to Win 7.50

It certainly won't work if you bet on every game. If you select specific games where a win by 1 run is unlikely for some reason, I guess it could win. Assuming that 30% of games end up in 1 run win/losses:

1) Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +145 vs. Chicago Cubs Risk 5 to win 7.25 (+145=100/245=40.8% winning expectancy)
2) Chicago Cubs -1.5 +190 vs. Cincinnati Reds Risk 5 to Win 9.5 (+190=100/290=34.5% WE)
Chance of one side winning by 1 run = 30% WE
So the total chances add up to 105.3. This is more than 100% so the sportsbook has the advantage in this bet (big surprise!). It's called an overround.

I'm too lazy to do the calculations for the other games, but you can do it yourself if you're interested. Combining -EV bets together cannot generate a +EV bet. In other words, if you agree that each of the run line bets are -EV by themselves, then combining them will also by -EV. Sports books cannot be beaten so easily. But nice try.

[frognose20]

Nevermind. Read it wrong

[Inspirited]

Only if things were this easy.

[ebbearsfb1]

It can be very profitable, but you need to pick the right spot to get in... YOu will make doe every day for like 10 days in a row if you get in at the right time... But that one bad day, where there are like 6 1 run games absolutely crushes you.

lol like today.

[ebbearsfb1]

this was more something out of courisity then anything else

[ebbearsfb1]

lol of course first night i look it has 6 1 run games... knowing my luck if i did this for a long period of time, 1 run games would jump from 30% to 50%

[ebbearsfb1]

if results hold

-1.5

1) Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +145 vs. Chicago Cubs Risk 5 to win 7.25
2) Chicago Cubs -1.5 +190 vs. Cincinnati Reds Risk 5 to Win 9.5
3) Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 +155 vs. San Diego Padres Risk 5 to Win 7.75
4) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres -1.5 +200 Risk 5 to Win 10
5) Atlanta Braves -1.5 +135 vs. New York Mets Risk 5 to Win 6.75
6) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets -1.5 + 210 Risk 5 to Win 10.50
7) Florida Marlins -1.5 +170 vs. Saint Louis Cardinals Risk 5 to Win 8.5
8) Florida Marlins vs. Saint Louis Cardinals -1.5 +180 Risk 5 to Win 9
9) Colorado Rockies -1.5 +165 vs. Washington Nationals Risk 5 to Win 8.25
10) Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals -1.5 +185 Risk 5 to Win 9.25
11) Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 +150 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Risk 5 to Win 7.5
12) Arizona Diamondbacks -vs. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +200 Risk 5 to Win 10
13) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 + 145 vs. San Francisco Giants Risk 5 to Win 7.25
14) Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants -1.5 +210 Risk 5 to Win 10.50
15) Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 + 150 vs. Baltimore Orioles Risk 5 to Win 7.50
16) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +190 Risk 5 to Win 9.50
17) Boston Red Sox -1.5 + 130 vs. New York Yankees Risk 5 to Win 6.50
18) Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees -1.5 +220 Risk 5 to Win 11
19) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +125 vs. Oakland A’s Risk 5 to Win 6.25
20) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland A’s -1.5 +235 Risk 5 to Win 11.75
21) Texas Rangers -1.5 +135 vs. Cleveland Indians Risk 5 to Win 6.75
22) Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians -1.5 +220 Risk 5 to Win 11
23) Chicago White Sox -1.5 + 145 vs. Minnesota Twins Risk 5 to Win 7.25
24) Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins -1.5 +190 Risk 5 to Win 9.50
25) Detroit Tigers -1.5 +150 vs. Kansas City Royals Risk 5 to Win 7.50
26) Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals -1.5 +150 Risk 5 to Win 7.50

lose of 40.75


there were 6 one run games