[Allure]

Let's discuss this game.

I personally liked the Rangers here - a solid team, a great offense and you can get them at a "cheap" price. It somehow seems like Vegas wants you to pick the Rangers. Is Texas a trap?

But first of all, everyone and their mom is on the Rangers - of course this should not be significant on the outcome of this game, but whenever the average Joe is heavily on the same side as me, I actually can forget about my ticket.

Now, getting the Rangers at a -130ish price does not make it easier for me. The Tribe played pretty well against the allmighty Red Sox and send an ace-caliber pitcher to the mound, whereas the Rangers start Holland.

Rangers offense is powerful indeed, but they've been struggling lately and it's their first home game after 2 three-game road series which they both lost.

Also their bullpen is among the worst in the game. Now can you count on Holland to pitch well enough to give the relievers some insurance? Will the Rangers bats be able to hurt Ubaldo?

A reason to take the Rangers might be Ubaldo who will face some solid AL sluggers. The Rangers could easily pound him, but as I said can you count on the Rangers offense today?

The Tribe has won a lot of games in the late innings, so even if Holland limits the Tribe offense there's the Rangers bullpen that's ready to choke.


Texas Rangers -130 (Holland)
Cleveland Indians +125 (Ubaldo)


So what's the play here? To me it's either a small play on the Tribe or nothing.

[IamAmonkey]

Both teams coming off a big win yesterday..slight lean on cle myself..gl

[stevenash]

Texas has never seen Jimenez, if he's on, he cam shut down Rangers bats, good pitching usually beats good hitting.

No play

[Giant Rebels]

I love rangers. Holland has been dominate as of late.

[BigDan]

Let's discuss this game.

I personally liked the Rangers here - a solid team, a great offense and you can get them at a "cheap" price. It somehow seems like Vegas wants you to pick the Rangers. Is Texas a trap?

But first of all, everyone and their mom is on the Rangers - of course this should not be significant on the outcome of this game, but whenever the average Joe is heavily on the same side as me, I actually can forget about my ticket.

Now, getting the Rangers at a -130ish price does not make it easier for me. The Tribe played pretty well against the allmighty Red Sox and send an ace-caliber pitcher to the mound, whereas the Rangers start Holland.

Rangers offense is powerful indeed, but they've been struggling lately and it's their first home game after 2 three-game road series which they both lost.

Also their bullpen is among the worst in the game. Now can you count on Holland to pitch well enough to give the relievers some insurance? Will the Rangers bats be able to hurt Ubaldo?

A reason to take the Rangers might be Ubaldo who will face some solid AL sluggers. The Rangers could easily pound him, but as I said can you count on the Rangers offense today?

The Tribe has won a lot of games in the late innings, so even if Holland limits the Tribe offense there's the Rangers bullpen that's ready to choke.


Texas Rangers -130 (Holland)
Cleveland Indians +125 (Ubaldo)


So what's the play here? To me it's either a small play on the Tribe or nothing.

did you not see the improvements Tex made to their pen around the trade deadline? I think calling their pen "among the worst" is not very accurate at this time.

that said im not trying to say jump on tex or anything, personally dont think i want any part of this gm as who really knows how Jimenez performs tonight?

either way BOL...

[KnowingNothing]

Flip a coin. No way of knowing how Jiminez will perform. He's been completely off all year.

[BigDan]

Flip a coin. No way of knowing how Jiminez will perform. He's been completely off all year.

that isnt really 100% accurate as for the most part he has been very good away from Coors this season, with a whip under 1 and opponents hitting around .170 against him (not sure if these went up much after the start he never should have even made in SD where he got blew up and then left after 1, felt throwing that start out was a reasonable thing to do as it was ridiculous he was put in that spot)...still really dont see much edge either way here so rather not get involved...

[LockPickMaster]

the sabermetrics have both pitchers even but texas has the firepower to win

[BigDan]

the sabermetrics has both pitchers even but texas has the firepower to win

cant argue that. just think Jimenez making his 1st start for a team that just played very well in Bos for 4 gms makes this a easy pass..

[KnowingNothing]

[/B]

that isnt really 100% accurate as for the most part he has been very good away from Coors this season, with a whip under 1 and opponents hitting around .170 against him (not sure if these went up much after the start he never should have even made in SD where he got blew up and then left after 1, felt throwing that start out was a reasonable thing to do as it was ridiculous he was put in that spot)...still really dont see much edge either way here so rather not get involved...

Don't get me wrong, I love the fella. He just hasn't had much support this year and he's mentally weaker than he was last season. That current ERA of 4.46 and WHIP on 1.37 don't do him justice.

I just think he'll need a bit of time settling in before we can get a good read on him.

Holland is in good form as well so I'm avoiding this match.

[pacocn]

We all know who the books like in this one, and they rarely
miss on Fridays, especially a big public play, it is the Tribe or nada.

[LockPickMaster]

We all know who the books like in this one, and they rarely miss on Fridays, especially a big public play, it is the Tribe or nada.

how do you know who the bookmakers like, is it that easy

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

I'm on the Tribe here........BOL

[pacocn]

never said it was easy, but i think the linesmakers
are leanin tribe with 72 percent on Tex and the line
holdin steady, I don't always go with the house, but
in this particular case i will not go against them. bol

[pacocn]

I am leanin the Under in this one, Ubaldo tough on road,
strong wind blowin in, tex unfamiliar with Ubaldo, Ump not
named yet, the Over is being juiced, and the beer is cold.

[BigDan]

Don't get me wrong, I love the fella. He just hasn't had much support this year and he's mentally weaker than he was last season. That current ERA of 4.46 and WHIP on 1.37 don't do him justice.

I just think he'll need a bit of time settling in before we can get a good read on him.

Holland is in good form as well so I'm avoiding this match.

im with you bro. really not a gm im trying to get involved in..just felt like talkin bout it a little to see if i could convince myself of a side. well that and had to comment on the "terrible" tex pen the op mentioned.

[HOT WINGS]

I like the Over but want to see an ump before I play it. Also like Rangers ML if I had to choose a side.

[jlee]

Holland is strong against lefties, and he'll be facing a lefty heavy lineup. But the downside is he is considerably worse at home. No matter how good Ubaldo is, can't trust any pitcher at Arlington.

Going Texas on this one, hoping Holland can continue his July run and not allow any homers.

[Allure]

Well, indeed Texas made some improvements as for their bullpen. However, they're still the 5th worst of the league. Just Detroit, Baltimore, Minnesota and Houston are worse than Texas'.

We will see some improvement for sure, but to me it doesn't change the fact that their bullpen sucks right now. Time will tell us, which impact the new guys will have.

As for Ubaldo; he's had some solid outings, but remember guys he's now pitching in AL, which to me has the better sluggers. Overall probably Rangers not the best in your first start for your new team.

Best play would probably be no play, but I'm going to take the Injuns for a unit.

GL though if you're on the opposite side.

[HoulihansTX]

Check wind conditions. If not blowing South. Then under is a play

[Pluthero]

I'm going with Ubaldo and the under.

[BigDan]

I am leanin the Under in this one, Ubaldo tough on road,
strong wind blowin in, tex unfamiliar with Ubaldo, Ump not
named yet, the Over is being juiced, and the beer is cold.

that is not the wind you want for a under in Arlington brother...wind in from south/se = jet stream out in this stadium...

[BigDan]

Check wind conditions. If not blowing South. Then under is a play

south/se is what is being forecast and reasonably strong. should be a little wind tunnel at least.

[DDT]

Rangers take this one easily

[HoulihansTX]

Yea gotta wait until gametime to check conditions.

[BigDan]

for what its worth Holland has been considerably worse on 5 days rest than any other this season and this is what he will be going on tonight...small sample so like i said take it with a grain of salt just something else to possibly consider..tried to post the numbers but every time i try to paste numbers they never turn out in a readable fashion. if anyone knows how i can do this PM me as i would love to post them at times but it takes me a hour adjusting the original cut and paste to make it understandable

[HoulihansTX]

You can not post tables or charts in the SBR reply field. Try the "advanced features" page, or post a screen shot.

[Ice House]

Rangers a solid play here. Holland proven to be one of the best LHP in the game. ALWAYS fade a pitcher making his first start with a new team. It takes awhile to get adjusted to new catcher etc...


Remember last year Cliff Lee at -300 making his 1st start with the Rangers after being traded from the Mariners? He gave up like 15 runs. I can see the Rangers opening up a can of whoop ass on Ubaldo. Texas is a very tough place to pitch and Rangers are a much better hitting team than Ubaldo has faced all season. No more automatic outs in the 9 hole for Ubaldo.

Besides that Holland is a lefty and the Indians struggle vs Lefties. They struggle vs Righties but Lefties even more so.

[BigDan]

You can not post tables or charts in the SBR reply field. Try the "advanced features" page, or post a screen shot.

hmmm. no shit...Houli you know im computer illiterate. only thing ive ever learned to do well on a computer is research.

[BigDan]

Rangers a solid play here. Holland proven to be one of the best LHP in the game. ALWAYS fade a pitcher making his first start with a new team. It takes awhile to get adjusted to new catcher etc...


Remember last year Cliff Lee at -300 making his 1st start with the Rangers after being traded from the Mariners? He gave up like 15 runs. I can see the Rangers opening up a can of whoop ass on Ubaldo. Texas is a very tough place to pitch and Rangers are a much better hitting team than Ubaldo has faced all season. No more automatic outs in the 9 hole for Ubaldo.

Besides that Holland is a lefty and the Indians struggle vs Lefties. They struggle vs Righties but Lefties even more so.

Edwin Jackson pitched just fine in his first start for a new team. im sure there are as many examples of a pitcher preforming well in this spot as not. Maybe im wrong but would like to see some numbers to actually buy into this at all. figure everyone is wired a little different so think this a hard generalization to make.

[Ice House]

you know I was just thinking about edwin jackson when I posted above... but a lot of times guys struggle in the 1st start with a new team.


Tony Larussa pissed me off the other day.. when I looked at that game I saw where K-Rod and Axford just pitched the night before so I'm thinking advantage Cardinals and if anything the Cardinals bullpen would be stronger than the Brewers on wednesday.

Little did I know that Larussa was going to give up in the 6th inning and leave a pitcher in that had given up 7 earn runs... They should have pinched hit for Jackson with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs only down by 3. Absolutely rediculous


and then Jackson gives ups 3 more runs and the Cardinals even had bases loaded in the 9th inning maybe if Larussa used that bullpen and a pinch hitter they win the ball game. Also Pujols failed to come through at the plate with runners in scoring position. But that was brutal that Jackson stayed in until he gave up 10 runs.

[BigDan]

Jackson was a trooper in that gm as the pen needed a rest. he earned mad respect points in that game from everyone in that clubhouse. despite the miserable performance. like i said when we got him at worst he will eat innings that Cards really needed.


that was his second gm with the club. not saying tex is a bad bet at all, i have no idea, just saying i think the statement about pitchers 1st start with a new team is tough to swallow as im sure many do struggle as i said no one is wired the same so it a really random thing i believe. unless i could see a ton of a sample size that really backs it up id be hard pressed to use that as a reason to sway me one way or the other.

[KnowingNothing]

I'm pretty tempted to take Texas now. Some nice movement and the more I think about it, the more I reckon that Jimenez will struggle.

[Allure]

I'm pretty tempted to take Texas now. Some nice movement and the more I think about it, the more I reckon that Jimenez will struggle.

What kind of nice movement? All I see is the public pounding the Rangers.

[BigDan]

nothing nice about playing tex at the current level. if you bet them before the jump all i can say is nice bet, how it is nice now is beyond me....still not touching this one...BOL everyone