[BigDan]

ok my brothers you know the drill, lets get after this shit...wont be around till after the start of a few of the day games so i got a few hours now to figure out wtf ill be on by morning..

1st thing i like is a total and they havnt been good to me the last few days but here it is anyway...


stl/mil un 8.5 -110..Wolf not the kind of guy stl can hit, evidence being in the numbers, which just support how i felt about him already. Albert the only one that has decent numbers against him and atm albert is really expanding his zone so i would think Wolf can take adv of that. No reason for me not to expect Jackson to be sharp with not many of mil players seeing him much. I guess the one problem is the fact both pens got worked tonight. lot of the big guns only went a inning tho so most should be available, figure Salas to be out and Lynn turning into defacto closer if needed (a roll i think he belongs in anyway), think it safe to count on Jackson to eat innings as that has always been something he is capable of. tough fought series and hoping bats a little worn down and starting pitching can control this game. Darling behind dish and i trust him to try and speed up the get away gm as much as possible with a nice wide k-zone...like i said my totals have been shit the last 2 days so take it for what its worth.



still looking at the other games but dont see much i love until the night set (unless someone can convince me otherwise by the morning)....should actually be home before the west coast day gms anyway.

will post some other thoughts as i go thru card but wanted to get the party cracking....As always thoughts, comments, stats, leans, anything you got is appreciated....

[No coincidences]

Cards got hammered early -- went from +111 to +100. I like the play, but it's hard to say after tonight's battle. I hate Randy Wolf, so it's definitely StL or nothing for me.

Cubs probably win again.

Like Tigers a little with Fister's arrival.

Why not take Toronto again? Shields doesn't deserve to be favored by that much at this point. Ridiculous price on that one.

Can the White Sux avoid the sweep vs. AJB?

Like the Twins with a red-hot Baker vs. gas-can Pineiro.

I don't see anything I love either, but I'm sure I'll come up with a play or 20 before all is said and done.

[No coincidences]

What about Arizona too? I've been waiting and waiting for Vogelsong to lay a home clunker for once -- this might be it vs. the hot Zona bats.

I think Toronto and Arizona are the two best dog plays on the board.

[BigDan]

yea there good chance ill be back on the Jays, better team at nice plus always sounds good to me. think im gonna go ahead and wait on it, if i lose a little so be it even tho not sure i will, but rather talk to myself about it 2marro for a while.

[BigDan]

Cards still a little weak vs lefties and wolf throws the kind of junk they dont like. who knows this game probably get wild and my under be screwed.

[No coincidences]

Cards still a little weak vs lefties and wolf throws the kind of junk they dont like. who knows this game probably get wild and my under be screwed.

Wolf is schizo. He either locks a team down or throws BP. Who knows.

GL brother.

[BigDan]

What about Arizona too? I've been waiting and waiting for Vogelsong to lay a home clunker for once -- this might be it vs. the hot Zona bats.

I think Toronto and Arizona are the two best dog plays on the board.

id be lying if i said zona didnt pop into my head soon as i looked at card, problem is i always feel the same way about Marquis as you seem to be thinking bout Vogelsong. Really dont trust Marquis to come over and be a difference maker, i mean he serviceable but never liked him. You def got the right bats on your side but think i have got enough off this series and not sure im trying to continue fading sf....very tempting tho as you know the chasers prob be out in full force, sadly i think i agree with them here. ill be home before this bitch starts tho so i reserve the right to change my mind. It just all a sudden im getting less plus with the worst pitcher zona has offered up yet? and im betting on a very good home team to get swept? not sure i like that combo.

[BigDan]

Wolf is schizo. He either locks a team down or throws BP. Who knows.

GL brother.

if i gotta chose between the 2 id bet lock down, well i guess i already did. not Cards kind of pitcher, not saying i dont think they can win but a lot gonna have to be on Jackson. Under FF may be better as then there no worries about tired pens or gm getting crazy (hopefully it doesnt get out of hand early).

[bigballer891]

I would lean over in that St.louis game but Im not playing that total at all.

I Kinda Like Nyy/Cws under 9, Floyd has really been pitching well and burnett has been pretty solid ty although he is prone to a blowup at any time. CWS just flat out cant hit, even with PK and hes a ? right now. Also kinda like Nyy -105 in this one, seems like a good price to support the far superior team

Also looking at Cinci ML, Hou/Cinci Under 8.5, Tor/Tb Under 7.5 and Chc/Pitt Over 7.5

[BigDan]

oh yea baller, im all bout hou/ciny under, even tho i like righties against hou better (not even sure if this still holds tru guess ill have to check).

cant blame anyone for not getting involved in the stl total. after tonight it prob a gamble either way, im just trusting Wolf to do what i know he can to Cards lineup and Jackson to be solid.

i know under in tampa always tempting but not convinced Shields doesnt get hit and Villanueva doesnt have my confidence like Romero. actually if 7 was number today seems to me 7.5 a little short here prob because of park and tb propensity not to hit there.

[borednaz]

Once again I was on the right side of 6 of 8 games but had to parlay them......

[BigDan]

Once again I was on the right side of 6 of 8 games but had to parlay them......

you didnt bet them all str8 bro? at least round robin? not that im condoning that either.

[borednaz]

No but when I get low/desperate I tend to not pay attention n throw the same teams into every play. Tonight was oak/sea over 6.5

[borednaz]

Im down to like 35 bucks tried to make it happend. Did not have even to bet each game.

[bigballer891]

oh yea baller, im all bout hou/ciny under, even tho i like righties against hou better (not even sure if this still holds tru guess ill have to check).

cant blame anyone for not getting involved in the stl total. after tonight it prob a gamble either way, im just trusting Wolf to do what i know he can to Cards lineup and Jackson to be solid.

i know under in tampa always tempting but not convinced Shields doesnt get hit and Villanueva doesnt have my confidence like Romero. actually if 7 was number today seems to me 7.5 a little short here prob because of park and tb propensity not to hit there.

Yea I know its low but tb struggles to score and maybe shields is starting to come back to reality but whenever a starter gets rocked like he did against oaktown I would expect him to be focused for this game.

I really like Chc/pitt over 7.5 the most out of those ones, morton has been getting lit up lately, look at the walks, would have liked a better umpire. The scrubbies are hitting well right now, and the pirates just added lee and ludwick, also alvarez is back. I know Garza is good but its not like he has to get rocked for this to go over. Seems like a really low number here, maybe theres something im missing...

[golfrulz]

thx for the opinions guys.

[supr_villn]

Im down to like 35 bucks tried to make it happend. Did not have even to bet each game.

boredoff_urazz ,, u should've just said something ! ..
follow me 2morrow & u will be back & on ur way

even if i have 2 keep it 2 (3) or even (2) gm's i won't lose

[BigDan]

Yea I know its low but tb struggles to score and maybe shields is starting to come back to reality but whenever a starter gets rocked like he did against oaktown I would expect him to be focused for this game.

I really like Chc/pitt over 7.5 the most out of those ones, morton has been getting lit up lately, look at the walks, would have liked a better umpire. The scrubbies are hitting well right now, and the pirates just added lee and ludwick, also alvarez is back. I know Garza is good but its not like he has to get rocked for this to go over. Seems like a really low number here, maybe theres something im missing...

very small sample but seems to me Shields does much better on normal rest which he wont be on 2marro as he hasnt pitched since the 27th, so that what 6 or 7 days? He already shut Jays down once and im just not sure how easy that is to do again. I know TB doesnt score at home but Villa prob only good for 5+ and a few runs, doesnt take much to get to that number. Way i see it even with Price not being as dominate at times this year tonight was ace/ace and total was 7, now you telling me all i get for these 2 is 7.5? Not to mention if i mess with this game think im gonna be on the nice plus side with Jays.....


prob wont be interested chc/pit. Never know when cubs gonna decide to leave 20 runners stranded and Garza certainly a headcase but he has the goods. def agree Morton is a gascan but he been playing better offenses than this and if cubs arnt stranding runners they could easily be hitting into dps. Personally and i dont know for sure as i dont play them a lot but if i liked this over id prob look at the h/r/e number a little bit. best thing i can say is it wouldnt shock me if line went up from here or over was really juiced at least later as i could see this being pretty popular. I really dont know bro it could cash easy but i see to many ways this gets screwed and after you left thinking how the fukk that go under.

[BigDan]

boredoff_urazz ,, u should've just said something ! ..
follow me 2morrow & u will be back & on ur way

even if i have 2 keep it 2 (3) or even (2) gm's i won't lose

wanna be tout alert wrong thread bro, we all hope you dont lose but i hope no one in any thread im talking in is looking to blindly tail anyone, no disrespect to you of coarse

you never know any given day anyone can win or lose, you gonna hook him up if you do lose? is there a guarantee here? i love those. How bout you just bet it for him if you so concerned then send him the check after it hits, i mean you printing money and shit, we just discussing plays playa...

what did you call me that one time? "public speaker" and "you didnt mean that in a good way"

so what shall i call someone as generous as you that instead of sharing information is printing money for ppl? whatever it is its fukkin awesome that you willing to do that for peeps

[borednaz]

Dan, does colo get swept... Does Atl lose even with this minor league pitcher?

[supr_villn]

big_dale ,,

i WILL NOT lose 2morrow ..

even if it means releasing only 2 plays ,,
'cuz of course any1 could win "1" gm

ps

u are about as unsophisticated as it gets just saying

[BigDan]

Dan, does colo get swept... Does Atl lose even with this minor league pitcher?

havnt got far on these bro as im not sure i like the prices either way. i dont see rox beating Doc but SF is on deck for philly so does look ahead come into play at all? If so is it worth it to worry about? im not sure and didnt even try looking any further into it cause i hate gms like this, high price and a look ahead when the whole world be on this day gm. Lots of times id play Rox just because but like i said Rox vs Doc, i really not trying to fade Doc.

if it has to one of these 2 gms, gun to my head id say atl is much more fairly priced and looks like could be drove down to more than reasonable for Beachy vs Wang. that said i dont love either but im assuming you almost have to play phi rl if yo take them and that would scare me more than atl i think but doubt i play either one. slightly lean atl but unless i have some crazy dream during my 2 hours of sleep before work my guess is i stay away.

wish i had a crystal ball brother but i do not...apparently superjerkoff(villn) does have one so maybe you should ask him..

[borednaz]

Been doing some forum lurking, found a decent bet Phili to score first. I would feel comfortable making that bet 75% of the time in this spot. So Im going with my gut and taking it.

[BigDan]

big_dale ,,

i WILL NOT lose 2morrow ..

even if it means releasing only 2 plays ,,
'cuz of course any1 could win "1" gm

ps

u are about as unsophisticated as it gets just saying

im nobody bro...go back to your little thread and go about your business...i hope you kill it..never saw your plays as you came here, never really heard of ya...BOL

[BigDan]

Been doing some forum lurking, found a decent bet Phili to score first. I would feel comfortable making that bet 75% of the time in this spot. So Im going with my gut and taking it.

either way it better to go with what you like, what else is the point of this thing we do? certainly cant be tailing some assclown like superdouche or anyone else for that matter.



I hope you cash that shit brother....

[supr_villn]

bored_az don't pay 4 winners ,,
they'll run u -155 on that sorta play
& heads'll be talking about what a lock ..

(garbage)

u gotta take $$$ -> hunt down the free $$$ ,,
it's only a matter of going against everything
that u were ever been taught or can remember ..

IT'S
THAT
EZ

[borednaz]

Thanks dan. It just made the most sense. Why sweat a whole game when logically the have the best chance outside of lazy player error to score first. If I think they are going to win anyways it also stands to reason they have to score more frequently,than colo can.

I treat gambling more like a game of logic, I dont care about the cash, I just want to see my logic validated..pretty expenscive strategy game Im playing. Which is Why I parlay. I like proving my theories right on a big scale. The last two months if I had just done straight bets Id be hitting 68%. But I never feel straight bets are worth it. Lifetime Im still up 2g but that keeps dwindling because of baseball. Hockey & Nfl are my sports. I suck at baseball I guess.

[supr_villn]

Thanks dan. It just made the most sense. Why sweat a whole game logically the have the best chance outside of lazy player error to score first. If I think they are going to win anyways it also stands to reason they have to score more frequently,than colo can.

I treat gambling more like a game of logic, I dont care about the cash, I just want to see my logic validated..pretty expenscive strategy game Im playing. Which is Why I parlay. I like proving my theories right on a big scale. The last two months if I had just done straight bets Id be hitting 68%. But I never feel straight bets are worth it. Lifetime Im still up 2g but that keeps dwindling because of baseball. Hockey & Nfl are my sports. I suck at baseball I guess.

if u think i'm annoying "now"
w8 'til i'm up 50K off NFL NHL

U NONBELIEVERS
WILL NEVER
LIVE IT DOWN !

[shopbar picks]

BigDan, One ? I See you post on other threads. Does it seem to you that every thread has to have, someone that clutters up and just post s**t, to piss the thread originator off. Wow this entire place is going down hill

[BigDan]

BigDan, One ? I See you post on other threads. Does it seem to you that every thread has to have, someone that clutters up and just post s**t, to piss the thread originator off. Wow this entire place is going down hill

always been like that around here bro, this place has tons of traffic so if you actually have something worth reading inevitably you gonna get attention seeking dipshits that come along to scream their name as it is very important for these douchebags to be popular. if i was printing money like these jerkoffs claim i wouldnt feel the need to scream about it, but hey that just me....

the plus side is you find a way more diverse group of ppl with brains here because numbers dictate there has to be, and has been proven in this "talkin bases" thread with the exception of a few stragglers we have a solid core of guys that have been posting in these threads since i started doing them. not gonna mention them all as its obvious every day who they are and im sure they all be around 2marro (im even talking about you "god")......

[God1]

Why not take Toronto again? Shields doesn't deserve to be favored by that much at this point. Ridiculous price on that one.

It's ridiculous that the rays aren't alot more expensive. Shields is cheap at -155 by at least 10 cents. You are burning money on Toronto at that price. Price closed at -140....Toronto is something like .100 OPS worse against righties, Rays are .50 OPS better against righties. Toronto's pitcher got worse and Rays' pitcher stayed the same. You tell me that's worth only 15 cents? Oh and the blue jays get alot of production stealing bases and Shields has allowed zero SBs this season

[lesterdymond]

This is baseball talk here supr villn... sharing ideas, inside info, and opinions.

Find a new thread to warn everybody about your excellence.

Have a little respect for others, you might catch a fanbase with your picks.

Just a thought...............

[BigDan]

God, you got me right the fukk off twinks yesterday, appreciate it as i was leaning

[shopbar picks]

Lol and amen the DB`s seem to find a good posters thread, to put the "GOOD PICKS OUT" any way you have good picks thanx for the time you put in to posting. Sbp

[BigDan]

It's ridiculous that the rays aren't alot more expensive. Shields is cheap at -155 by at least 10 cents. You are burning money on Toronto at that price. Price closed at -140....Toronto is something like .100 OPS worse against righties, Rays are .50 OPS better against righties. Toronto's pitcher got worse and Rays' pitcher stayed the same. You tell me that's worth only 15 cents? Oh and the blue jays get alot of production stealing bases and Shields has allowed zero SBs this season

even tho i feel like Jays are capable of hitting Shields here i think i gotta agree with what you are saying, nice point with the steals as well. possible they set low because it likely ppl overreact to tb losing with Price yesterday as he is still looked at as the ace much more so than he should be?(lot closer split in percentages of ppl on a side than yesterday that i see) , while there is certainly no disputing the drop off in Jays pitcher.

That said im not sure because the price not right for tor that i want to get behind tb, im sure this is one area we disagree as i know you saying tampa warrants a play @ current odds. I just cant simply make a play because of this alone but trust me i understand it (no need to explain as i get the theory), that said i dont mind passing one bit...