[God1]

Arizona didn't get "lucky" that night. They hit him hard. If you'd watched the game you'd know that.

home runs are luck!!!! a pitcher is going to give up home runs at the league average % of flyballs a vast majority of the time, there are very few exceptions to this rule in baseball. Therefore, looking at how many home runs a guy gives up in one game is absurd

Also high K guys tend to give up slightly than HRs than avg so points for Luebke

And his line drive % that game was about 23%. His line drive % on the season is 19%, i can't believe we're really talking about this but all it took was for ONE pitch to be hit differently for him to have a good great performance in that game on LD%

[No coincidences]

Yes, and the Padres have awesome pitching and terrible hitting so you wouldn't expect a higher than expected walk rate

Who leads the NL in strikeouts?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/...ded/order/true

They also rank in the middle for BB.

[No coincidences]

home runs are luck!!!! a pitcher is going to give up home runs at the league average % of flyballs a vast majority of the time, there are very few exceptions to this rule in baseball. Therefore, looking at how many home runs a guy gives up in one game is absurd

I'm not looking at it on paper -- I'm telling you what I saw. They hit him hard. And I'm sorry, but homers at Petco aren't luck -- quite the contrary, in fact. You give up three dingers in one game there, you've been hit hard.

[BigDan]

fuk me...no more threads for me, i havnt got anywhere on my card with this shit.........

where the fuk are Madhatter/miyakuza/houli/LTA/ Biff sorruy if im leaving anyone else out you know you my boys...im sure ill see them 2marro but could NC and L&m with all respect please take this to his thread cause this shit does not help me on damn bit. greatly appreciated.


NC you my boy to but please take this shit to your thread cause it gives me a fukkin headache...

[No coincidences]

It's a nice theory, and to make it relevant, how many cents are you shaving off luebke's expected performance as a result?

Luebke's pitching at home -- why would he shave cents off when he's said he's more comfortable at home than pitching at PHI?

[No coincidences]

fuk me...no more threads for me, i havnt got anywhere on my card with this shit.........

where the fuk are Madhatter/miyakuza/houli/LTA/ Biff sorruy if im leaving anyone else out you know you my boys...im sure ill see them 2marro but could NC and L&m with all respect please take this to his thread cause this shit does not help me on damn bit. greatly appreciated.


NC you my boy to but please take this shit to your thread cause it gives me a fukkin headache...

My bad.

[God1]

Who leads the NL in strikeouts?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/...ded/order/true

They also rank in the middle for BB.

Their pitchers are also about middle of the NL for walks given up. If the theory held, shouldn't Petco produce very few walks because pitchers aren't as afraid to throw strikes?

[God1]

Luebke's pitching at home -- why would he shave cents off when he's said he's more comfortable at home than pitching at PHI?

I was just curious how many cents that was worth to him because it's irrelevant for trying to bet a game if you can't price it even if he's right(which he's probably not)

[God1]

he fuk are Madhatter/miyakuza/houli/LTA/ Biff sorruy if im leaving anyone else out you know you my boys...im sure ill see them 2marro but could NC and L&m with all respect please take this to his thread cause this shit does not help me on damn bit.

We're having a discussion on exactly to how to price a starting pitcher and that is too much for you? You kidding?

I guess you just want winners or something? Or look at home or away stats or 10 AB sample sizes and pick a side? You're trying to actually profit here right? You could learn something

[No coincidences]

What do you think about the Cards on Monday Dan?

[God1]

Greinke once again underpriced by at least 10 cents

[BigDan]

We're having a discussion on exactly to how to price a starting pitcher and that is too much for you? You kidding?

I guess you just want winners or something? Or look at home or away stats or 10 AB sample sizes and pick a side? You're trying to actually profit here right? You could learn something

I dont know what else to say, i dont factor prices like you, i understated the process but i just simply dont buy into that being the only way to win, i factor my own things and weigh my odds on a very lose scale on whether or not i believe a play warrants a bet, ive always been more of a get the answer w/o doing the formula type guy, if yo find that comical or dont understand it, or think i can win like that, that is fine with me because there more than 1 way to skin a cat and ive been around a long time playing tons of sports, ive lost on occasion (except college hoops, havnt lost yet but only 4 years), broke even some years, and did well more than not, im sure its to small of a sample size for you (im only 33) but i dont give a shit..now please argue with nc in his thread because what you are talking about means jack dick to me....laugh away just do it elsewhere.

far as im concerned the true genius is not having to have to do metrics or formulas that someone else decided were law cause ive had my own way of looking at that same numbers and ideas for years and gaining the same info while still leaving room for creativity because i dont believe in absolutes....now go talk about it somewhere the fuk else please cause obviously your brain is superior to mine.

you probably fukkin right tho i could learn something, which is something i seriously doubt you are capable of, and whatever i could learn im pretty god damn confident i wouldnt be learning it from some 1st year college kid, or at least some coward who acts like one. I hope this will be the last of our oh so fun discussions where i post plays and thoughts on games while you go around like the pretentious ass you are never having the balls to post a play.

[No coincidences]

I dont know what else to say, i dont factor prices like you, i understated the process but i just simply dont buy into that being the only way to win, i factor my own things and way my odds on a very lose scale on whether or not i believe a play warrants a bet, ive always been more of a get the answer w/o doing the formula type guy, if yo find that comical or dont understand it, or think i can win like that, that is fine with me because there more than 1 way to skin a cat and ive been around a long time playing tons of sports, ive lost on occasion (except college hoops, havnt lost yet but only 4 years), broke even some years, and did well more than not, im sure its to small of a sample size for you (im only 33) but i dont give a shit..now please agree with nc in his thread because what you are talking about means jack dick to me....laugh away just do it elsewhere.

Wins are wins and money is money.

You can do all the analysis in the world or next to none -- if you've been up and done it consistently through multiple seasons, it's not just a lucky streak.

[No coincidences]

Greinke once again underpriced by at least 10 cents

You don't think there's a reason you're getting a SP unbeaten at home throwing for a divisional leader with the best home record in baseball for such a short price?

[God1]

You don't think there's a reason you're getting a SP unbeaten at home throwing for a divisional leader with the best home record in baseball for such a short price?

Of course there's a reason, Carpenter is a stud and the Cardinals are the better hitting team especially with craig counsell replacing weeks. On the other hand, Greinke is still being priced projecting an ERA around 3 and that is considerably high

[BigDan]

What do you think about the Cards on Monday Dan?

im not sure bro, pissed i didnt middle the bet like i intended to and turned into a fan after a good day so im a little steamed at myself and the cards at the moment. so i thought it would be a lot better to sleep on it but i tend to agree with L&M for the most part, not his price and expected era because i havnt looked to tell you what i expect Greinke will give up yet. I really just need to wait on that one and get some sleep seeing how ive wasted a hour not accomplishing anything.

[Maddhatter]

Pretty exhausted to cap but have committed myself to Oakland, Philly, and Atl RL. Taking the square plays today. I just can't see none of these teams losing. Oak bats right now are hot and Seattle will find a way to lose. Oak 7-1. Still riding the over train but small. Philly has found renewed energy w/ Pence in the lineup and I feel they will exploit Chacin's mistakes w/ Hamels pitching a decent game. Phil 8-3. JJ should rebound after getting rocked by Washington the last time they played each other and counting on Hernandez's inconsistency. Atl 4-2. Sprinkled a little on Oak O6.5, Atl/Wash U7.5, Phil/Colo O8, NYY RL and Zona also. Whole lot of other reasons but just too tired to go into it. My brain is half asleep. Better to fade than follow, perhaps.

Oak, Phil, Atl RL (smaller bets on Oak O6.5, Atl U7.5, Phil O8, NYY RL, Zona). Florida, Houston, Boston RL didn't make the cuts.

[ShogunRua]

Like the leans. Already on Oak and Zona. Good luck.

[BigDan]

took oak-112, seems like line gotta go up. and im happy here. i would actually lean under with a good ump but ill worry/talk about that later.

also jumped on ..

stl/mil u 7.5 -107. .hope i get a solid ump but figure hook could easily come off and id like to have it....

lad-126. again figure this line prob goes up, not sure if i will keep it.

zona+123..wasnt sure whether or not to play now so did for half a unit in case it drops(really not sure), like spot for zona but still dont like playing against sf at home or Cain for that matter.

that all tonight, we talk more about it during the day, really need some sleep.

[jashtonrich]

i am wondering about the sox indians match up you think boston will score alot

[BigDan]

couldnt sleep yet..again w/o ump

arz/sf un 6 +102...wont be plus later on.

[BigDan]

i am wondering about the sox indians match up you think boston will score alot

define a lot?

[miyakuza]

Dan, I like the Pirates to keep rolling tomorrow at home. Maholm has been great, and Overbay is fighting for his 1B spot with D. Lee now. Ludwick is an extra bat in the lineup who has been hitting well.

Pirates DOMINATE THE CUBS!!!!!

I do like Kershaw, but something is saying this can be a pitchers duel and Padres can take the win in low scoring fashion. Laying off this for now.

I really like Cain tomorrow for the Giants though. Kennedy has ever won IN SF, though he beat them at home earlier this year. I like Cain to shut down the D-Backs here.

ATL LOOKS good, but I hate going with public road favs. Especially when Washington competes with ATL very well, and Jurrjens got lit up against them last time. Might take Washington small.

There is no reason for Yanks to be favored this much with CC on the road against Peavy. What the hell man.

I also like Greinke. Anybody else?

Also like Florida.

So to summarize, intial leans are:

White Sox
Indians
Giants
Pirates
Brewers
Marlins
Nationals

Some research notes

SF leads Ari in the season series 7-2!

Cleveland leads Boston in their series 4-2.

Mariners lead A's in their series 6-4.

[twelvejewelz]

couldnt sleep yet..again w/o ump arz/sf un 6 +102...wont be plus later on.

I never like to bet an arizona under . If it goes under sf wins if it goes over arizona wins IMO , good luck though

[BigDan]

I never like to bet an arizona under . If it goes under sf wins if it goes over arizona wins IMO , good luck though

not sure about that, kennedy in good form and they did add a little pen help. i understand what you saying but 3-1 wouldnt shock me with zona on top..either way they both plus so if i get one or the other at least i still picked up a little...worst case i change my mind but shouldnt get hurt doing that either cause juice gonna shift.

[BigDan]

Miyakuza,

i actually lean scrubbies. not sure i buy Maholm can keep that up, was surprised when i 1st saw what he has done against chc as i normally think of cubs as a team that would hit him. Bucs so scrappy and determined tho and cubs so not that, where it would make actually playing them a little tough on me. think Bucs expended a lot of energy trying to battle phi tho and not sure how the new bats will effect lineup right away, most cases it seems it takes a little adjustment to lineup changes but not a certainty. so still gotta trust big Z, of coarse he might go yard against Maholm he just such a fukkin headcase.

prob just leave it alone because im never real sharp with teams that just finish playing stl for some reason, i know it and except it most the time.

[BigDan]

i figured you would like g-men and like i said im not a huge fan of fading Cain or sf at home but i think this about as reasonable spot as i can get. only went .5 cause i do feel like im pushing it. But think this race could get interesting real fast so i took a little shot....

[BigDan]

i feel pretty good about un 7.5 in mil/stl gm so you can have mil as i dont blame you but im gonna play fan at least at 1st of this series and not mess with a side. honestly id like to chase stl and hope like hell they get me a win in 1 of 1st 2 but dont think im gonna do it against that bunch at home, id be beyond impressed and pretty demoralized as a fan if mil swept them tho.

[miyakuza]

I know a couple people are on the Cubs, but Pitt has the edge here. Zambrano has given up 22 hits in his last 3 outings and against the Pirates, that will be hard to turn the corner, right? Cubs are still 18-34 away, and with the history between Pirates/Cubs in the last couple years, I still think Pirates shall win, and win the series.

[BigDan]

i really couldnt see myself playing Chisox either bro. i doubt im on nyy either but i just saw what sox looked like against a lefty that couldnt command his good offspeed pitches hung plenty and at times could only throw a fastball for a k and they only managed 3. and now Konerko out and that means Dunn (he of the 3 for 73 clip against lefties) will assuredly be hitting cleanup if anything id prob look to play their tt under with a good ump but not really sure yet.

[miyakuza]

i figured you would like g-men and like i said im not a huge fan of fading Cain or sf at home but i think this about as reasonable spot as i can get. only went .5 cause i do feel like im pushing it. But think this race could get interesting real fast so i took a little shot....

you know me too well

I just see Cain as he was in the postseason, straight up stopper lately.

Sabathia hasn't been getting much run support, and ever since he's faced the Rays and lost 2-0, his slider has been out of location and has been giving out a good amount of walks.

[BigDan]

I know a couple people are on the Cubs, but Pitt has the edge here. Zambrano has given up 22 hits in his last 3 outings and against the Pirates, that will be hard to turn the corner, right? Cubs are still 18-34 away, and with the history between Pirates/Cubs in the last couple years, I still think Pirates shall win, and win the series.

series i wouldnt doubt but this 1st gm im just not sure. yea Z is like that but his fat ass can turn on you and show up at any minute, and with the other uncertainty i have with Maholm, the infusion of new bats, and what i think had to be a exhausting and disappointing series just not sure if they bounce right back. like i said im not really thrilled with the notion of backing the scrubbies i just think this not a gm id be wanting to feel real strongly about.

[BigDan]

you know me too well

I just see Cain as he was in the postseason, straight up stopper lately.

Sabathia hasn't been getting much run support, and ever since he's faced the Rays and lost 2-0, his slider has been out of location and has been giving out a good amount of walks.

if today was any indication even if he out of the k-zone with it id still expect guys to chase.

[BigDan]

Cain is able you are correct. just not so sure g-mens offense is just yet.

[LovetoSpooge]

I like oakland ml betting against a team as bad as seattle has got to be profitable and dodger ml. Leaning towards the atl/nats under but waiting to see umpire.

I thought arizona looked like value but can't bring myself to bet against Cain so might have a nibble on the under.

Also taking philly ml.