[og4667]

I spend a lot of my time analyzing the card on a daily basis and thought it would be helpful for others to get another perspective on how these games could play out.

Too many people just posting picks with no explanation and this thread isn't intended for just picks really just good info. As a bettor I want to know every little thing there is to know about these games that way we can make the best decisions. I want to hear everybody's opinion on these games so if you got something to add, please do.

Here is to a good 2nd Half

[BigDan]

i like this i will stop by frequently..let me start with a few quick thoughts.

think ppl are getting way to carried away with Zoolander mania. when they should be looking at how well Peavy has pitched against det (throwing out his last outing) his numbers against Miggy and Magllio are awesome and all year he has been tough on lefties which should help negate some of tigers switch hitters. Of coarse Zoolander has great numbers against the chisox as well (who doesnt he have good numbers against?) and im more than willing to throw out his last start against them, that said if Chisox can remain patient and work a few counts maybe they can get him out by the 7th while scratching a few runs across. i have peavy's line in the 6 in 2er range so if this becomes a battle of pens i really like getting the better one at +140 (and still climbing). CWS are the #1 threat to this div imho and i see them getting to .500 tonight and proving it. 6-3 since the break (even with the 2 losses in kc who seem to be playing decent right now) this team is on the rise and will compete in this div. the line continues to climb in a game i feel is much closer than the price you have to lay to take Tigers in this one.

[og4667]

hey BigD thanks for stopping by, good info there thats what I am talking about. I feel the same way considering how White Sox hit Verlander, he is also 3-8 in Chicago, albeit his last outing in Chicago was very good. White Sox haven't even been a dog at home yet this season and Tigers getting pounded, line could keep going up and we are getting lots of value here on the sox and you could even go for a lil bit of +1.5

[og4667]

Here is the NL

Marlins @ Nats:**Marlins 21-8 L29 in Washington & 46-18 overall** **Ricky has had a few rough outings but stillA better pitcher on the road, I see the Marlins winning this game, Nats coming off long road trip andThis seems like the kinda game the Schtzo Marlins would win** **Both pitchers coming off bad outings so thisGame feels kinda like a crapshoot as to who will rebound, as probably both will rebound** Action on this gameShould be split, but it looks like early $ likes the Marlins as well, Play: Marlins ML**

Giants @ Phillies:**Initial lean is on Giants w/Lincecum, Giants should get to Worley, I feel he is due for a correction****Huge revenge game for the Phillies who are also coming off a loss, its a tough call but interesting toSee what the public bets, I would guess Giants?? I would probably fade the public in this game and ifThe action is split go with the Giants and initial lean. Nothing easy here as Worley has been Great and Giants have never seen him before. Play: ??Giants ML???**

Pirates @ Braves:**Hanson coming off 2 bad bad outings and Karstens coming off 3 very good outings and BravesHave never seen Karstens** **Hanson due for a bounce back but this is just too much value to pass upOn the Pirates here** **If Braves get shutout tonight then check their shutout record but too muchValue on Pirates. Karstens is their best pitcher** **Have a feeling Karstens will pitch a gem but will be a sore Luck loser and loose by 1. Braves 0-13 on the RL revenging a home loss as a home favorite this season andHanson 2-12 at home on RL w/current price. Play: Pirates ML/+1.5**

Mets @ Reds:**Reds 30-11 L41 home games vs LHP and Reds should get to Niece easily, Reds should have healthy lineup****Mets have some good numbers vs Cueto but he is in good form, just banking on Reds to hit Niece and his LHP, Public could be split on this game w/lil more on Reds** **Reds 31-20 SU after loss and Cueto 7-2****Reds 5-22 w/current ump at home plate & road tream 10-3 L13** **Cueto 0-2 w/8.14 ERA vs Mets****Seems like some fishy stuff going on in this game but still like Reds to get the win, Play: Reds ML**

Cubs @ Brewers:**Narveson 4-0 vs Cubs and Dempster has a GREAT record (3 games no ER, 3-3 in Milwaukee) vs Brewers****Brewers 2-5 L7 home games after road trip of 7 or more days and that was a tough tough road trip****Cubs are 11-31 after a win and have won 3 in a row so due for a loss cubs could win but I see this game beingclose with it coming down to the bullpens and in that case Brewers win..Play: Brewers ML**

Astros @ Cards:**Meyers ain't nearly as bad as Happ but still Westbrook should be able to pitch well enough and Cards willGet their runs off Meyers** **Sure Meyers could pitch a gem but I would rather play the % and Bank on the cards getting enough runs and then into the Houston bullpen, always a good idea toFade BAD teams (astros, mariners, orioles, etc...) Play: Cards -1.5**

Dbacks @ Padres:**Padres coming off nice win and 9-4 L15 home games after road trip****Dbacks 2-11 L13 in San Diego but Pads 1-8 vs L9 vs NL West and Mosley is 1-6 L7 home starts****Pads hit Saunders well in the past, but Dbacks hit Mosley hard in SD. I lean Pads to get the win. Its a tough call, since Saunders is pitching much better now and Mosley doesn't get any run support. Looks like Dbacks getting a lot of actionOn this game. Dbacks better team and maybe even have slight pitching edge but its rarely that easy. Play: Padds ML**

Rockies @ Dodgers:**Kershaw hasn't given up any ER in 3 games, and Chacin has been bad lately, feel Kershaw due to give up some tonight****Rockies 17-11 vs LHP and hit Kershaw pretty good, kinda lean Rockies in this one since they are due For a win and have good hitting history vs Kershaw BUT rockies are a bad road dog bet and don't have muchPop on the road. Rockies on Value but it might be more likely Kershaw pitches a gem, Rockies seem to be fading fast?? StillGonna go with initial lean towards the Rockies,despite Kershaw being 5-0 at home vsRox Play: ??Rockies ??**

[ebbearsfb1]

really awesome stuff

[kiln]

Cubs @ Brewers:**Narveson 4-0 vs Cubs and Dempster has a GREAT record (3 games no ER, 3-3 in Milwaukee) vs Brewers****Brewers 2-5 L7 home games after road trip of 7 or more days and that was a tough tough road trip****Cubs are 11-31 after a win and have won 3 in a row so due for a loss cubs could win but I see this game beingclose with it coming down to the bullpens and in that case Brewers win..Play: Brewers ML**

This is my top play today, for sure.

[ebbearsfb1]

og did you write all this stuff up yourself?

[BigDan]

OG, i think you will find the majority will be on Phils as SF continues to be denied the respect they deserve. dont think Worely is nearly as good as some believe and that will be proven in the near future, still a tough gm tho because revenge is a funny thing, not sure if phils are more geared up to beat sf to say this their time or SF more motivated to remind everyone they are the champs. prob not even worth worrying about as you could use it either way to justify a play. bottom line is Freak as dog against Cy Worley? either G-men or pass

played Buccos yesterday as their record in 1st games of road trips is a spectacular 8-1 now carrying a 7-2 unde mark with it so they obviously no how to go on road and make teams play their game. I expected Hanson to have a tough go in Col but i also think atl pitching as a whole has came to earth a little bit and like ive believed all along they are gonna let the wild card pack catch up to them at some point, atl still prob wins it but id be shocked if there wasnt a wild card race to talk about. lean pit+1.5 and under then possibly a little on pit ml.

really no interest in fish/nats

I believe you are underestimating Neise a little by saying cincy should "get to him easy" and/or overestimating cincy's struggling offense, these guys havnt been hitting since the break with the exception of the atl series but i feel bravos pitchers were in a bad spot and possible fading a little anyway. in limited abs against Neise votto/bruce havnt did anything and if you can hold down these 2 who generally hit lefties well you can hold down this offense. Ump has a nice wide k-zone and should allow Neise to nibble forcing reds to roll over on quite a few balls. Cueto is a absolute stud and i expect it from him every time he goes at this point. with this ump and everything else i mentioned i think the play to make here is under 8.

Rather give Brew Crew a day home to get adjusted before i start taking them all thru this home stand. pass for me tonight

Cards rl/cards ml/ov parlay just over. all seem more than reasonable to me.

In Kershaw i trust, never fade, either play lad when he pitches or pass. do have a creative way or 2 im looking at this one tho. thinking neither team to score 3 should be around +450, then Lad 1st team to score 3 as hedge (should have a little plus next to that) as chacin the only one worrying me. if kershaw gets hit by rox so be it but the kid has made me a lot of cash and i wont get off until he gives me a reason to, i know he wont win them all but he damn sure win most.

[CAS2550]

Sweet thread og. I like the brewers as well. They should smash the cubs.. I like the whisox again today too. I just dont know if they will sweep Det right now. I expect 2 out of 3, and that 2nd win should happen tonight. Whisox are starting to heat up.

[CAS2550]

And btw I think the publics gonna take Philly tonight

[og4667]

BigD, I get your point with Niece he isn't the normal leftie. The Phillies hit lefties well but Niece has been very good against them. From the Reds standpoint, they don't seem to enjoy winning too many games in a row but are good off a loss. Reds have a really bad record with home plate ump so that is a little worrisome for REds backers.

I am just not a total guy, only on rare situations will I play them. AL coming soon...

[og4667]

og did you write all this stuff up yourself?

yeah, this is all my stuff. I like to cap all the games and try and know as much about them as possible.


here is the AL... I always make my picks 5-10 minutes to tip off so I can watch line movement. I'll be posting what I actually bet when the games go off...

Angels @ Indians:**Weaver is great but rarely gets much run support and Tomlin is a great home pitcher and a Highly Capable home dog. Neither team is really hitting but Public will bet Angels tomorrow and IndiansWill get no respect, sounds like my kind of pick. Not crazy about going against Weaver because I wouldn't Be surprised if Angels win but there is no edge in this one so gotta take the disrepected home dog. Watch toSee what the line does, also if Angels ML too low Angels could be the play. Still, Play: Indians**

Mariners @ Yanks:**Mariners continue their loosing ways, no reason to think it won't stop here. Not excited about laying -150 on RL Play: Yanks -1.5**

Orioles @ Jays:**Jays own the Orioles and are 14-7 vs them on the RL L3 average score 6-3, should be easy win for Jays, maybe too easy??****Arrieta has pitched well vs the Jays and Bautista is 0-7 vs him BUT Arrieta has given up 7 HR in L4 outings and other guysThan Bautista can hit HR's on that team. Arrieta also has an ERA of 8.68 in July while Morrow is now pitching very solid****Jays should blow out Orioles but starting to get funny feeling, doesn't help that Arrieta is10-1 vs the RL against teams w/OBP of .320 or worse** Play: Jays -1.5**

Royals @ Red Sox:**Red Sox coming off a low offensive output should be upset with themselves. 2 rookies going here, don't seeAny reason why Red Sox don't blast new kid Duffy. Miller will give up some runs and Rsox 20-8 at home w/current ump, RsoxShould cruise, Play: Red Sox -1.5**

Twins @ Rangers:**Twins could bounce back but Rangers are a beast** **CJ will be fine and Rangers will should get to Pavano with him Being 0-2 w/ 11+ ERA. Just seems too easy, and its hard to put money on Twins after last night. **Rangers on the otherHand are 0-4 SU after scoring 15 or more runs L3 seasons. Really wish the Rangers hadn't of beaten the twins soooo bad Yesterday because I like the pitching matchup for the Rangers today. This does set up a sharp bounce back spot for the Twins. Pavano will have to pitch lights out because Pen is shot and CJ won't give up more than 2-3. Not gonna get too sharp on this one, Even if Pavano pitches well, Twins pen will get hit hard in the 7th. Play: Rangers -1.5**

Tigers @ White Sox:**Verlander is 3-8 L11 in Chicago & hit hard by them recently in Detroit...Revenge???****Peavy been struggling but will probably step it up for this game, White Sox as a home dog has a nice soundTo it. Verlander is a stud so tough call since he could be top 1-3 pitchers right now. Still like the White Sox becauseVerlander has had trouble with them and I like home dogs. White Sox are a good team to bet next few weeks...Play: ??White Sox??

Rays @ A's:**A's 3-14 L17 w/umpire Joe West at home plate****Rays SHOULD get a win w/Price BUT I don't like what I have seen out of this team lately, not necessarily Going to play the A's...Rays pen sucks right now. **McCarthy has struggled vs AL teams (2-11) w/batting average of .255 or lessBut hasn't faced the Rays in about 2 years.** **Rays 8-1 on the road as a fav in this range, its a tough call, since I havePropensity to play home dogs I initially lean A's but A's are 18-26 after a win and Rays could get this one...need to wait andSee how the night plays out** **Maddon 18-48 in road games with a struggling pen w/WHIP of +1.75 or more** Play: A's

[og4667]

4:00 Batch:

Straight: x1
Marlins +115
Pirates +1.5 -140
Reds -140
Indians +125

2 Team Parlay:
Jays -1.5
Red Sox -1.5

[og4667]

5:00
Straight: x1

Brewers -145

[og4667]

Angels @ Indians:**Santana 0-3 w/8.1 ERA in Cleveland & Hiff 0-2 w/7+ERA vs Angels****Indians loaded the bases with 0 outs last night and didn't score, but haven't been scoring much as it is lately and same w/Angels****Home team is 20-7 vs the Angels w/current ump** **Angels 8-21 L29 road games vs LHP** **Angels have the advantageIn day games as they have had a good day record for a long time, still no clear cut advantage here, so play dog, Play: Indians**

Mariners @ Yanks:**Feliz 5-0 vs Yanks but Mariners 8-23 in NY** **Seems like a good spot for Mariners to get a win here but counting on the Mariners To get a win is like waiting for Godot** **Yanks also great during the day and Felix has been rough lately but still Mariners have thePitching edge** **Action on this game is about split, so for me to take Mariners here I would still want everybody doubting them, Not good when everybody is trying to be sharp on a certain side, if anything take them on the Atlernate -1.5 for betterValue. If they do win they should beat Hughes easy and Felix will pitch well Play: ??Mairners??**

[chevy6]

will look at ur plays later !!

[og4667]

Tigers @ White Sox:**Danks 1-5 vs Tigers** **Tigers 13-5 in road games vs LHP** **Danks 4-12 vs division L2 & 8-20 L3****Still tough call, since White Sox are unpredictable for me but I am getting the better team and the pitchers are about equal at + money, so...Play: Tigers

[og4667]

everyhing else...

Marlins @ Nats:**Marlins 22-8 in Washington** **Going back to 2010 Hernandez is 1-5 vs the Marlins** **As long as Marlins are + MoneyI am gonna roll with them** **They play well vs the Nats, and Vazquez is ?? but should bounce back** **From Nats perspective,They did get blown out and are 9-2 after 3 or more losses so they can are due to bounce back, still lean Marlins. Play: Marlins

Giants @ Phillies:**Cain really struggles on the road vs winning teams but Giants have hit Hamels well in the past** **Initial lean is on the Giants to bounce back** **Phillies should be a public play** Play: ??Giants??

Pirates @ Braves:**Malholm is 1-8 in road games but is 1-1 w/1.64 ERA vs the Braves his lowers ERA vs an opponent****Jurriens struggled a bit but should rebound tonight. Tough loss for Pirates who are 1 game back and in 3rd place in the division****Neither team is scoring much and both pens tired, should be a low scoring game and Pirates could either bounce back after theBad call at the plate or they could just not show up, not really sure** Play: ???

Mets @ Reds:**Reds 0-5 at home w/current ump but home team is 20-7 vs the Mets w/current ump****Pelfrey 3-10 in road games but Arroyo 4-8 in home games** **Both pitchers should give up 4 runs or so, both pitchers have Trouble giving up the long ball and Mets don't hit too many HR's while the Reds do** **Just realized Gomes was traded from RedsAnd he was ok for them, not sure about impact** **Reds DUE for a win and always a good idea to fade Pelfrey on the road**Not crazzy about this game and not crazy about laying -140 with the Reds who now are 50-53 on the season. Play: ??Reds??

Cubs @ Brewers:**Brewers trying to beat Zambrano at Miller Park for the first time in 5 years?? crazy****Greinek has good home record with lots of run support and good peripheral numbers but has bad luck a lot of times as far asGiving up runs** **Greinke had really bad outing in Chicago recently and Zambrano was hit hard by Brewers recently in Chicago****See Brewers winning but only way I can play this game is -1.5 and not too confident about that** Play: ??Brewers??

Astros @ Cards:**Bud Norris is the Card killer and If Astros weren't so putrid I would bet them. Stros trying to avoid longest road skid in 6 years****Cards 3-10 at home w/current ump** **Not gonna spend much time on this game** Play: ??Astros??

Dbacks @ Pads:**Don't see Padres really hitting Kennedy and Dbacks aren't gonna get too many runs off Luebeke, hence the low total****Dbacks were a popular play last night that cashed easily and lots of people will be on them today and for good reason. PadsReally shouldn't be favored here, Kennedy has 3 games vs them without giving up and runs* *Home ump w/home team going 32-13 L45****Still a tough call, small Lean Dbacks, Play: ??Dbacks??

Rockies @ Dodgers:**Kuroda 2-5 vs the Rockies and Cook 2-5 vs Dodgers** **Rockies trying to avoid the road sweep, and are 0-8 as a road dogIn the current range** **Rockies are kinda unbettable for me right now despite Kuroda's struggles vs them Cook is just much worse****Small Lean Rockies...Play: ??Rockies??

Orioles @ Jays:**Orioles 16-40 L56 road games vs LHP****Romero 0-7 vs the RL & 1-6 SU after a loss this season** **Really shouldn't be any reason why the Jays don't get some revengeAfter being blown out at home** **Simon nothing special and Jays have hit him when he has pitched in relief situations****Lean Jays -1.5 based on revenge, pitching edge, hitting edge. Play: Jays -1.5**

Royals @ Red Sox:**Lackey hasn't won 4 consecutive starts on the Red Sox** **Red Sox hit lefties well and Chen has been hit hard by Red SoxBefore** **No Reason to think Red Sox don't blow out the Royals tonight** Play: Red Sox -1.5

Twins @ Rangers:**Rangers 4-11 w/current ump at home plate and Colby Lewis 1-4 L5 vs Twins w/ ERA of around 10****Kinda like the Twins here since Lewis has been hit hard by them and he is kinda due for a letdown after pitching so well****Duensing could get rocked as well, probably a good Over bet here but I like the price on the Twins tonight and they showedA lot of heart bouncing back like they did and winning after trailing 7-3. Based on Lewis struggles vs the Twins and the price of this Game I feel its worth taking a shot. Play: Twins

Rays @ A's:**Rays due for a win here, this is a 4 game set so no sweep situation yet but Shields has been pitching much better thanCahill as of late but he doesn't get much run support and the Rays have been too inconsistent to lay chalk on them on them on theRoad for me** **From the A's standpoint, Cahill always gets hit hard by the Yanks and this could be a nice bounce back spot for Him** **Shields has struggled vs low scoring AL teams in the second half of the season historically, while he is a different pitcher This year, A's are still a capable home dog and playing better than the Rays right now. Play: A's

[chevy6]

og4667 good work buddy...going over todays card

[og4667]

thanks chevy, not crazy about todays card and not much time today but here is a minor breakdown in my eyes...

Mets @ Reds: Like the Reds here to finally get a win, Bailey is a solid home pitcher and Capuano will get hit by the Reds. Probably my only play today. Reds typically avoid the sweep in these situations. If they win it will be by DD so I feel comfortable laying the -1.5 +150


Marlins @ Nats: Like to bet teams to avoid the sweep, and Nats should do just that. I doubt Hand will pitch too deep into the game. Lean Nats

Cubs @ Brewers: Randy Wells on the road, no thanks. Cubs are trying to avoid the sweep but I wouldn't want to take a shot with them here. Staying away from this game but lean on the Brewers -1.5

Dbacks @ Padres: Tough call, Pads trying to avoid the home sweep. Latos is unpredictable and Hudson is a bit mroe reliable lately and he is one of the best batting pitchers in the NL, always think that ads some kinda edge. Small lean Pads to somehow avoid the sweep just like the did in Philly.

Giants @ Phillies: Pitching matchup obviously favors the Giants here but not a fan of the road chalk and only in rare situations. Don't really want to bet against the phillies as a home dog coming off a loss. Small lean Phillies, tough call

Pirates @ Braves: Lowe is 10-0 vs the Pirates. Correia has been great road pitcher all season long and neither team is really scoring right now. Too much to pay on the ml for the braves and too much to pay on the +1.5 for the Pirates. Have a feeling the Braves might be due for an offensive outburst. Small lean Braves -1.5

Astros @ Cards: Garcia 0-3 vs the Astros who are putting their Ace in Wandy up against the Cards coming off a loss. Astros can hit lefties sometimes so at this price I would maybe take a shot on the Astros here based on Garcia's struggles vs the Astros and thinking that Wandy could pitch well but in the end I think the Cards squeak it out today. Lean Astros +1.5

Angels @ Cards: Should be a high scoring game as both pitchers will give up runs today. I lean on the Tigers to get the first win in the series. Penny has a good record as a home favorite in this range and Pinero will give up a few and see the Tigers winning in the end. Pinero could just decide to walk the bases full in the first inning as he seems to struggle with his command at times. Lean Tigers.

Royals @ Red Sox: Too much to pay here for the Red Sox -1.5 and this could be a lookahead spot for them here as I am not sure what their motivation is in this game with the revenge game against the White Sox next. Not gonna back Hochevar
in Boston either. Maybe Red Sox -1.5 in a parlay or something like that...

Rays @ A's: Kinda suprised to see the Rays in this situation vs the A's but then again maybe I am feeding into the public perception that the Rays are superior becuase they aren't playing like it. For the A's to be favored here says a lot and trying to back the Rays here doesn't feel right. Wade will give up a few runs but then the pen comes in and they are really struggling right now. Lean A's

Orioles @ Jays: Really not a fan of Bradley Bergesen I think the Jays score a lot more than 3 runs today. Villannueva will give up a few runs but weird shit happens when he pitches at home sometimes. When I say weird I mean bullpen collapses or errors that lead to unearned runs. Anyway, still lean Jays -1.5

Twins @ Rangers: Twins coming off 2 wins vs the Rangers after that bad beatdown in the first game of the series. Baker is the Twins best pitcher and Harrison has been pitching well lately. I lean on the Twins to get another win here as this is a good price on Baker.

Good luck today guys. My favorite plays are Reds -1.5 +150, as a smaller play I like the Tigers -130, and maybe Twins.

[chevy6]

gl today peeps

[og4667]

Mets @ Nats:**Nats on a 5 game slide coming off home sweep to the Marlins and Mets coming off road sweep of Cincy** **Mets rollingRight now** **Line seems a bit like an overaction to the sweep and Nats losses lately. Mets were +120 in every game at CincyAnd the Reds basically have the same record as the Nats by a difference of just a few games** **Really don't know what to expect Out of the Wang but he will be on a pitch count of 80-90 pitches** **Gee is coming back down to earth a bit w/ERA around 5 in last3 starts** **Based on recent play Mets should win this game but I don't like them as road favorite especially after what Terry CollinsSaid regarding how tired his guys were and that they were out there just playing on Adrenaline. Still might not be a good idea to Fade the Mets comsidering how hot they are, and current Nats players are 2-39 vs Gee w/.51 avg. Play: Mets**


Pirates @ Phillies:**Couple ways too look at this game. Philly will come out strong trying to avoid their longest loosing streak at home in a whileOr they will be a little hungover after loosing last 2 games vs the Giants** **Pirates split a tough series in ATL and Morton has beenPitching well lately but walked 5 batters in his last home start vs the Cards and was able to still get the win** **Morton is 5-1 on roadWith a 3.00 era so tough to go against him based on Value but the pitching matchup is obviously lopsided but after looking at theBat vs pitcher #'s each team has similar #'s vs the opposing pitcher. Pirates penn is doing a great job so even if Morton is a little offThey can come in and help out. Pirates also faced very solid pitching in ATL and I have to believe they can muster a couple runsOff Halladay. Gonna buck the trend here and lean on the Pirates to hang in there on the +1.5 at even money. Pirates +1.5**

Giants @ Reds:**Giants 20-8 vs LHP and 18-6 on the road vs LHP** **Giants coming off 2 solid wins vs the Phillies and are ripe for a letdown vs a Team that is hungry for a win. Reds fought hard yesterday but those Mets are scrappy** **All the stats support the Giants to Win but I think the Reds break the 4 game loosing streak and get the win. Yesterday everybody was backing the Reds to avoid the Sweep at a bad price and today everybody is on the Giants. Reds get the win tonight.** Play: Reds

Marlins @ Braves:**Marlins trying to win 7 in a row on the road dating back to Setp 10 2004****Marlins 5-21 L26 vs a team w/winning record** **Hensley pitching ok, his K/BB ratio not good and he has been pitcing no more 85 pitches per start** **Beachy on the other hand has been hit hard by the Marlins and has given up 19 runs w/ 4.3 ERA in 7 homeOutings** **Beachy also 0-7 vs division opponents L2 season, so seeing Beach at -160 is a joke** **Hensley has some good reliefNumbers vs the Braves** **Like the Marlins at this price, Play: Marlins ML/+1.5**

Astros @ Brewers:**Brewers coming off sweep of the Cubs and now face Astros w/Lyles who they have never seen before and Wolf has good #'s Vs the Astros** **Brewers without Rickie Weeks for a couple weeks so gonna wait out this game to see how it affects them****Brewers have the Cards coming to town after this series so and I don't really see them being too motivated to smash the Astros** **If the Stros can win 2 in Saint Louis they can get 1 out of 3 in Milwaukee** **Brewers are 27-7 as a home favorite in theCurrent range, so fading them as a fav would put you in the poor house and getting to Lyles shouldn't be too hard** **Gotta go Brewers in this one, not crazy about it but Small lean Brewers -1.5. Play: Brewers -1.5

Cubs @ Cards:**Cards 38-18 on Fridays** **Garza has some good numbers vs Holliday and Berkman but last time he was in Saint Louis he gaveUp 6 runs** **Edwin hasn't given up less than 4 runs in his last 3 starts vs the Cubs** **Tough call since its hard to tell what Kind if outing Jackson will have with his new team** **Cubs due for a win and if Cards can drop 2 in a row to the Astros thenThey can for sure loose to the Cards. Lean Cubs** Play: ??Cubs??

Rockies @ Padres:**Hammel 1-8 as a road dog and Stauffer 6-2 as a home favorite** **Rockies 7-0 on Fridays and 5-1 at Petco** **Staufer 4-0 vs Rox****Padres have seen Hammels a lot and have done well vs him in the past. Stauffer is pitching great right now especially at home Where he has a 2.77 w/ 1.16 WHIP where as Hammels has been hit hard last few outings albeit in Atlanta and in Arizona****I actually expect Hammels to pitch well as he hasn't given up more than 3 runs at Petco, but I think Stauffer will edge him outAnd the pads win 3-2. Play: Pads

Dbacks @ Dodgers:**Dbacks 8-1 as a road favorite** **Lilly 1-5 w/ 7.5 ERA over last 7 outing** ** Collmenter has been pitching great and I Think Dbacks will get to lilly w/ease like they have done earlier this season. Play: Dbacks

Angels @ Tigers:**Angels 7-2 on Fridays and Tigers 2-8 on Fridays** **Chatwood 4-0 as a road dog in current range****Tigers 1-11 w/current ump Jerry Layne at home plate** **Porcello hasn't given up less than 4 runs in 4 games vs the AngelsAnd he sports a 7+ ERA vs them** **Really like the Angels to get another win at a nice price in Detroit** Play: Angels

Rangers @ Blue Jays:**Jays 36-15 on Fridays and Cecil 11-1 on Fridays as well** **Rangers 8-0 on Fridays as well & 5-0 as a road fav -110 to -150****Jays 4-11 L15 home games vs team w/winning record & Cecil has given up 11 runs on 17 hits in 13 innings at home****I doubt Cecil pitches another CG gem against the Rangers but should be good enough and good chance Ogando has a solid outing****Rangers are 5-11 L16 road games vs LHP** **I always try and find reason to bet the Jays on Friday and lots of value here on theJays as a home dog in a matchup they just won. Play: Jays

Royals @ Indians:**Indians batting .417 off Francis in 48 AB** **Royals 0-6 in Cleveland but Carrasco is just 4-11 L15 home starts****Indians have feasted on Royals pitching this season with 45 of the 105 hits going for extra bases****Gotta continue the Francis fade and take the Indians who are due for a home win** Play: Indians

Orioles @ Yanks:**Burnett 7-3 vs Orioles and Guthrie 0-7 vs Yanks** **Not a fan of either pitcher but gotta give the edge to Burnett****Guthrie will be giving up some HR's tonight but you really can't trust Burnett either and the Yanks are only 7-7 as a home favBetween -175 and -200** **Have a feeling Orioles could get the unexpected win here, but I wouldn't put any money on theseBums, and I can't trust Burnett either** Play:??Yanks -1.5??**

Red Sox @ White Sox:**Floyd 5-1 vs Red Sox, Wakefield 4-11 vs White Sox, Red Sox 3-13 L16 Meetings & 1-4 L5 in Chicago****White Sox have big pitching edge vs the Red Sox and White Sox are just a bad matchup for the Red Sox, Play: White Sox**

Twins @ A's:**Gio coming off bad outing in NY but should rebound tonight vs the Twins** **Gio has a great record at home as a favorite inThe current range and 7-0 at home with a total of 7 or less** **Lirano is inconsistent to say the least and the A's have been hot Lately** **Gotta go A's on this one, Play: A's

Rays @ Mariners:**Rays 12-25 L27 Friday games & Mariners 10-4 on fridays** **Bedard will be on a pitch count w/first start off DL****Mariners 0-5 L5 home games following road trip of 7 or more days** **Mariners outscored Rays 26-11 and won 3 out of 4 last month at Safeco****Don't like direction of the Rays right now but can't be worse than the Mariners** **Mariners have a decent record at homeWith a such a low total but I think the Rays can do just enough to win this game** **Rays Friday record is weird butI think they get it done tonight** Play: Rays

[BigDan]

everything points to a Muts win, so im fading common sense on that gm and taking the big Wang-1.5 +200

with you on chisox again even tho the revenge angle for Bos scares me...

Wouldnt worry bout Big Pumas numbers against Garza as Berkman as expected is getting another night off i believe. like you said his numbers suck against Garza and he needs the rest anyway, prob see him late against the scrubbies pen if needed. Cards slick tho cause they got Patterson thrown in that Rasmus deal and he has very good numbers against Garza so puma can rest another day. tough game as hard to know if Jackson will be too jacked up early on, these are important gms for Cards tho and i have no problem chasing pretty big this series as if Cards get swept by scrubbies i should be broke and they should be embarrassed.

playing mostly totals besides those 3 above and maybe Fish FF as Hensley hasnt been going deep as he prob on a count and think Bravos can get this gm late.

GL brother.

[chevy6]

gl peeps

[og4667]

[quote=BigDan;10869619]everything points to a Muts win, so im fading common sense on that gm and taking the big Wang-1.5 +200

with you on chisox again even tho the revenge angle for Bos scares me...

Wouldnt worry bout Big Pumas numbers against Garza as Berkman as expected is getting another night off i believe. like you said his numbers suck against Garza and he needs the rest anyway, prob see him late against the scrubbies pen if needed. Cards slick tho cause they got Patterson thrown in that Rasmus deal and he has very good numbers against Garza so puma can rest another day. tough game as hard to know if Jackson will be too jacked up early on, these are important gms for Cards tho and i have no problem chasing pretty big this series as if Cards get swept by scrubbies i should be broke and they should be embarrassed.


Laid off the Cubs last night, thanks for the insights BigD. I need to get better at
being more selective. Can't play all the games on the card and expect to make a profit. Good luck today.

Rangers @ Jays:**Rangers 7-17 L24 road starts** **Rangers 5-12 L17 meetings and 2-8 L10 in Toronto****Home team 14-2 vs the Rangers w/current ump at home plate** **Holland has pitched well vs weak competition****Mills has supposedly thrown the ball well at AAA Las Vegas but hasn't had much luck on the majors****Rangers are 5-12 L17 road games vs LHP** **Rangers kinda banged up without Cruz today****Like taking the pitcher who the opposing team has never seen, lean Jays** Play: Jays

Orioles @ Yanks DH #1:**Yanks have great day record at 29-7 SU & 25-11 vs RL** **Yanks 11-3 at home w/current ump** **Orioles 15-40 playing vs a team with a winning record** **Tillman has been hit hard by the Yanks before****Gotta go Yanks in this one to bounce back after a loss and cover the -1.5 but -130 too much to pay for me, pass on this game**

[chevy6]

the yankees i took em

[BigDan]

i hear you bro, i had 3-4 really nice gems yesterday and ended up making about 15 bucks because i played like 14 games total. not real smart.

[BigDan]

fukking overslept on the easiest bet on the board. nyy tt ov......

[og4667]

good call on the yanks, easy money. Wish I would have played them now but I don't like laying juice on the RL, no fun. Jays ain't looking so hot so glad you picked a winner.

Cubs @ Cards:**Lohse 9-2 as a home fav of -150 to -200, Cubs 7-21 as road dog +150 to +200 & 1-9 this season between +150 & +175****Cards 10-3 L13 w/current ump at home plate** **Both Pitchers aren't great but Lopez really bad, I think Lohse will pitch fine Today and Cards should get to Lopexz easy** Play: Cards -1.5

Rays @ Mariners:**Rays 12-2 L14 road games vs team w/loosing home record** **Rays 46-20 on Saturdays, Mariners 14-37 on Saturdays****Pineda 1-5 L6 starts** **Mariners should not be favored here & Pineda's innings are getting up there and he is pitching really Bad lately while Cobb is pitching with confidence** Play: Rays

Angels @ Tigers:**Angels 20-7 as a favorite** **Both teams good during the day** **Tigers throwing out new prospect Turner and Angels have Never seen him** **Haren has never won at Comerica park and Tigers are 9-1 in home games vs AL starter w/ ERA of 3.2 or betterAnd I like the Tigers as a home dog** **Angels pen also got hit hard yesterday so they are taxed** Play: Tigers


yeah, gotta be more selective. Trying to get better at weeding out my favorite picks, that is where I struggle the most and its always easy to do after the games are over ya know.

So far in the hole today with the Jays. Gonna play the Rays, Cards -1.5. not sure about the Tigers...

[BigDan]

yea i normally dont lay that huge juice with yanks, in these cases best thing to do is play their Team total over as it not usual more than -125ish and they are terrorist in day games.

[BigDan]

i actually worry about Loshe a little today and surprisingly enough Lopez has been pitching solid lately. Loshe numbers against scrubbies not real good and he has had trouble getting thu 6 lately w/o getting touched up. Still think Cards revamped pen will be enough for them if Loshe does struggle, didnt have the nuts for the -1.5 so played stl-1 @-129...

[BigDan]

played the under 3.5 ff in tb/sea and under 8.5 in det/laa..so here's to 3-1 wins by tb and det


Gl today.

[og4667]

good idea about TT something I should look into more. Lopez is due for a correction and Lohse should be ok today I THINK... Watching some late movement on the Tigers.... maybe a good play w/turner their new prospect.

TT on the Cards at OVER 4.5 -110

[ebbearsfb1]

i hope im not the kiss of death to this thread.. everytime i tail it seems to turn bad for you... im on cards and rays... cross your fingers

[ebbearsfb1]

wtf... already 5-0.. and 2-0..