[BigDan]

Ok boys lots of games, tons of huge juice, a day gm (again with a ton of juice), overall a pretty big card that has to have some creative ways to make some money..had to spend QT with the wife and party with some friends this weekend, feel refreshed and ready to talk some baseball.

here my thoughts on the early game and some other things im thinking about...

phi/u7 parlay...i think the only way to play phils is the same way as gm1 with Hamels vs Luebke, phils and under makes the most sense, think that better than laying the rl. No reason Lee doesnt shut the door and although Harang has had some issues with phils lineup he has been a different pitcher this year, problem is he hasnt pitched in to many bandboxes so that a concern for under, but 4th gm of series everyone gonna wanna get this hot ass gm wrapped up and get the **** out of there. Ump should give a nice k-zone and something like 4-1, 4-2 phils sounds reasonable to me.Of coarse Harang is a fly ball pitcher in a park where that can lead to disaster for the under, gonna trust he gets a nice k-zone and can limit the damage, long as he can give a QS the pen should help keep it under...

really think most these big favs will win, tex, stl, bos, phi. but who trying to lay that juice? trust bos on the rl but it still steep, considering a bos rl/stl parlay as this day screams 2 teamers as long as we can get the right ones mixed together.

Atl/pit u 7 (may even go up a little as over juiced now)...Mcdonald has beter stuff than mot pit pitchers. Huddy is a beast and cant see Buccos doing much against him, atl had to travel home with no day off and could see it taking a while for their bats to get going by which that time Bucs pen should be able to limit much damage. Seems like every time Buccos leave from a homestand their 1st road gm is a under, im sure it a very small sample and may not mean a whole lot but their gm obviously is limiting the other team, and should be able to keep this a low scoring affair. Certainly would like to get a solid ump in this one and def wont bet until i see who it is, just putting some leans out there to get things rolling.

interested in cws and Rox as well. might be tough laying that juice with stinky sox but they are playing well and i wasnt real impressed by the kid Tigers are throwing. Det has hit Buerlhe well but guy has been pitching well and a gm against a kid making his 2nd syart 1st road start is a must win if they wanna be taken serious.

Rox i gotta admit i really like Nicasio's stuff, strange how much better he pitches at home and to make it worse his worst outing at Coors was against these dodgers, call me crazy but i think this kid may enjoy CR just as much as he does pitching at Coors, and he seemed to enjoy getting payback against Bravos so at plus money against another sometimes wild but electric stuff pitcher i really wanna take a shot.


thats what i got so far. lets hear everyone thoughts on these or any other games you like. As always thoughts and comments are appreciated, not working monday so really wanna bang out a solid card.

[BigDan]

Tex rl +110 seems like the rl fav id wanna play str8, these guy just got shut out and they have bounced back well from that all season. anytime i like tex or chisox i gotta consider rl.

[SBRMAN23]

I like your thinking so far only thing I don't like trusting Harrang with the under he could get lit up

[MoneylineExpress]

Phils look like the strongest out of the big chalk tomorrow

[BigDan]

I like your thinking so far only thing I don't like trusting Harrang with the under he could get lit up

Harang has good numbers on 4 days rest. good numbers with this ump who clearly has a nice k-zone, harang has only givin up 5 hr in 5 gms at CBP, Also gotta believe phils will be sitting a few starters (very possible hot day gm with sf on deck) Believe Lee is gonna have to be Ace Lee for phi to win as i think Harang will be good, i may even play neither team to score 3 (should be +600 on this gm, maybe) and phi 1st team to score 3.

[BigDan]

Phils look like the strongest out of the big chalk tomorrow

I disagree. think tex and Bos the two best. obviously i think phils win but Tex doesnt lose after getting shut out and i could see phils being complacent in that game just counting on Lee. The Sox vs Davies? hell the rl is juiced to hell, but tex rl is plus, gonna play tex rl straight then look to parlay bos rl with something else, prob Cardinals.

[vyomguy]

lot of big chalk tomorrow...just bet all big underdogs tomorrow and u will make money.

[bigballer891]

Nice analysis BD, not really a fan of anything tomorow. Kinda like the Under 7.5 in the Oak/Tb game tomorow. Have to see what kinda ump we get but, oakland is going to be travelling east to west and should be tired tomorow for the the first game back. Hellickson is a quality start machine and I think Oakland will really struggle to score off him. Moscoso is coming off his worst start and should be able to bounce back against the rays. Rays offense is average at best and getting there first look at moscoso too doesnt help. I think this one has 3-1, 4-1, 4-2 written all over it.

[BigDan]

im feeling like there gotta be a way to take adv of these big favs..here what im playing now as i dont wanna prices to get worse;;

stl ml/Bos rl 1 to 1.5

Tex rl +110

phi/sd u7/bos ml 1 to 1.57

pit/atl un 7 +105

not sure if im gonna play phi, actually may play sd rl but that can wait along with the rest of the night games. i promise the rest wont be so fukkin "square"

[BigDan]

Nice analysis BD, not really a fan of anything tomorow. Kinda like the Under 7.5 in the Oak/Tb game tomorow. Have to see what kinda ump we get but, oakland is going to be travelling east to west and should be tired tomorow for the the first game back. Hellickson is a quality start machine and I think Oakland will really struggle to score off him. Moscoso is coming off his worst start and should be able to bounce back against the rays. Rays offense is average at best and getting there first look at moscoso too doesnt help. I think this one has 3-1, 4-1, 4-2 written all over it.

i like that under as well, its very juiced at 7.5 tho and im not a fan of -120ish on a total!! not to worried about ump as i didnt see any on the slate that would scare me, but im in no hurry if i play it ill let it drop to 7 and risk a push with plus money.

[Bengals28]

I think i'm gonna play padres ML.

[BigDan]

I think i'm gonna play padres ML.

wont upset me at all if pads win cause it would have to be low scoring i think. i might be on them who knows but it would be rl. i mean rest of phils may be looking ahead but i expect Lee to come out and handle business.

[Bengals28]

Yeah like you said under is definitely a good play. Love the odds for the pads to get the W though.

[stingyrivers]

best way to take advantage of big chalk parlayed is this

take the two you feel strongest about and two team parlay them for half the total amount you plan on betting on the day

three team those two with your next choice of solid chance... put 25 % of total amount betting on the day on that play

four teamer with those three and your next choice for 15% of total amount betting on the day

and finally, a five or six teamer for 10 % of total amount betting on the day... the four you already have in other plays, plus one or two more, possibly leans that are closer to coin flip odds, like a total you feel strong about...

the result is this... as long as the two you feel are most solid win, you cant lose money on the day

the more you get right beyond those two, the bigger the profit of your good day

and if you happen to get a clean sweep, you have a huge day

trust me... this is kind of my model for betting, and been having very decent days like this the past couple weeks

big chalk parlays is kind of my thing (ML favs and Dog rl)

good luck no matter what you do bud...

im putting my plays together now... maybe I throw them up in here when they are complete if you want

[alexn]

I think i'm gonna play padres ML.

+1 taking them too

[og4667]

good info ther Bigdan. I like your take on the games for tomorrow...here is what I am thinking...

Padres @ Phillies:**Pads trying to avoid 4 game sweep and Harang is 7-3 vs the Phillies****Bad lookahead spot for the Philies here who have the Giants tomorrow** **Public will hammer the Phillies tomorrow, Play: Padres ML and/or +1.5**

Pirates @ Braves:**Braves 57-24 L81 home games after road trip of 7 or more days****Hudson 1-7 vs poor power teams this season & Hudson 2-3 L3 as a home fav in this range****Public should play the Braves, lots of Value on the Pirates. Play: Pirates ML and/or +1.5**

Mets @ Reds:**Dickey 1-5 vs the NL Central this season and Reds have never faced him****Not crazy about playing the winner from the Sunday night ESPN game on Monday but Leake hasDecent home record at 6-3 this season and 15-8 L3 and 3-1 as a home fav of -125 to -150 this season****Mets will get a few runs off Leake and Dickey should give up a few, tough call since both pitchers haveSimilar stats** **Public should be on the reds tomorrow, I have small lean Reds but wouldn't lay more than -145, wouldn't be surprised to see this # steamed down favoring the Mets, Play: ??Reds??

Astros @ Cards:**Cards 24-8 on Mondays but 1-4 L5 home games after road trip of 7 or more days****Happ sucks, Astros suck, Cards coming off loss after resting several players, Cards should blast theShitty Astros, Play: Cards -1.5

Rockies @ Dodgers:**Rockies 3-10 L13 road games and 7-15 in LA****Nicasio has been pitching well but at home, hasn't fared too well on the road this season but I kinda feel Like the Rockies could bounce back after 2 bad losses in a row in Arizona but Rockies are A bad road dog (18-44 L62 as a road dog) Play: ??Rockies??**

Mariners @ Yanks:**Yanks should beeat Mariners easy here, Vargas will give up some runs and Yanks will win easy****Mariners covering the +1.5 would be an upset and their loosing should continue, Play: Yanks -1.5**

Angels @ Indians:**Indians 0-5 last 5 home games****Indians struggling lately but Carmona coming off a nice outing in Minny and I see the Indians getting a Win here as Carmon has pitched well vs the Angels but nothing to show for it** ** I see the PublicBetting the Angels tomorrow and I can buy low with the Indians as a home dog, Play: Indians ML**

Royals @ Red Sox:**Red Sox rolling along here and Davies should get blasted as Lester should pitch solid****Red Sox are a beast but not crazy about laying juice on the -1.5, still though Play: Red Sox -1.5****Royals 8-22 in Boston but Lester 1-4 L5 w/ 19 or more days rest coming off DL**

Twins @ Rangers:**Don't like Blackburn on the road and Holland seems to be pitching better albeit vs bad teams and Coming off bad outing in LA, Blackburn has had good success vs the Rangers but w/Beltre outThe Rangers were shut out by the Jays** **Twins have good record vs the Rangers going 16-8 L3 Season but 1-4 L5 in Texas, rangers should give Holland lots of Run support, Play: ??Rangers -1.5****Check shutout stats**

Tigers @ White Sox:**Buehrle 13-1 as home fav of -125 to -150 L3 season and is 10-3 at home vs Tigers****Wsox have never seen rookie Duane Below, so thats in their favor but hard to go against Buhrle And his stats above, Play: Wsox

Rays @ A's:**Rays 15-38 L53 in Oakland and is 4-6 in Oakland L3****Rays better team and Hellickson is solid but Moscoso is good also at home and Rays have never seen Him** **Public should hammer Rays tomorrow as small road fav, and since I don't see a big advantage For the Rays and don't wan't to lay square road chalk I have a small lean on the A's based onThe Rays not seeing Moscoso, recent play in Kansas City and A's perform well as a home dog,So 3 factors in A's favor, Play: A's


My Top Plays: Padres +1.5, Pirates ml/+1.5, Cards -1.5, Yanks -1.5, A's ???

[Duby]

I think the best way to play the chalk tomorrow is laying the -1 line.

[Love The Action]

Good luck Big Dan.

I agree with most of your assessment respecting the Philly under. My biggest fear is the poor history of Harang versus the Phillies. That really scares me because I played the under in that game yesterday for a bigger type play despite Stauffer's poor history and he got shelled early. I would hate to see history repeat itself two days in a row....

[BigDan]

Good luck Big Dan.

I agree with most of your assessment respecting the Philly under. My biggest fear is the poor history of Harang versus the Phillies. That really scares me because I played the under in that game yesterday for a bigger type play despite Stauffer's poor history and he got shelled early. I would hate to see history repeat itself two days in a row....

believe me brother that was by far my biggest concern, it helped ease it a little when i saw Harang has only givin up 5 hr in 5 gms at phi and 12 in 11 gms total, thought it may be worse with his tendency to get a lot of fly ball outs, still would be surprised if phils go with a complete lineup today and Harang has a decent history with this ump and on 4 days rest. The way he has been pitching and the fact Pads are facing a 4 gm sweep im gonna go ahead and trust him to keep Pads in the game, as long as he can give us 6 solid w/o getting lit up early i like the pen to keep scoring down after that.

[oiler]

soxs are my only play today buerhle pitching well of late

[zjohnzzz]

liking detroit in that game BOL all

[BigDan]

im feeling like there gotta be a way to take adv of these big favs..here what im playing now as i dont wanna prices to get worse;;

stl ml/Bos rl 1 to 1.5

Tex rl +110

phi/sd u7/bos ml 1 to 1.57

pit/atl un 7 +105

not sure if im gonna play phi, actually may play sd rl but that can wait along with the rest of the night games. i promise the rest wont be so fukkin "square"

ok well im not happy about the shitty number on the phi u or the fact lines screaming it going over so just living with the parlay above but gonna add..

Phi ml/oak un 7.5 +149

[Bengals28]

Lee getting roughed up! Let's go Padres!