[ebemiss]

Here are my Sunday MLB Projections.

Away-- Atlanta Braves Brandon Beachy -123
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Dontrell Willis



Projected Game Total 9.9

Away-- New York Mets Dillon Gee
Home-- Florida Marlins Anibal Sanchez -129



Projected Game Total 8

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Kyle Lohse -129
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Charlie Morton



Projected Game Total 7.9

Away-- Houston Astros J. Lyles
Home-- Chicago Cubs Matt Garza -165



Projected Game Total 8.8

Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo
Home-- San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner -121



Projected Game Total 6.3

Away-- Colorado Rockies Ubaldo Jimenez -124
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks M. Owings



Projected Game Total 8.5

Away-- Washington Nationals Jason Marquis
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Chad Billingsley -130



Projected Game Total 7.1

Away-- San Diego Padres Tim Stauffer
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Roy Halladay -220



Projected Game Total 6.8

Away-- Chicago White Sox Edwin Jackson
Home-- Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson -125



Projected Game Total 8.4

Away-- Oakland Athletics Gio Gonzalez
Home-- New York Yankees Bartolo Colon -168



Projected Game Total 8.8


Away-- Los Angeles Angels Tyler Chatwood
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jeremy Guthrie -122



Projected Game Total 9.6

Away-- Seattle Mariners Michael Pineda
Home-- Boston Red Sox Tim Wakefield -143



Projected Game Total 9.7

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays A Cobb -117
Home-- Kansas City Royals F. Paulino



Projected Game Total 9

Away-- Detroit Tigers Rick Porcello
Home-- Minnesota Twins Francisco Liriano -125



Projected Game Total 8.5

Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Brett Cecil
Home-- Texas Rangers Alexi Ogando -187



Projected Game Total 9.2

[Romanianbornwin]

You picked all the favorites and there is no way that all 15 of them win. And how do you project the game totals?

[ebemiss]

I didn't pick anybody. These are just stat based predictions using overall team rankings, plus starting pitcher, bullpen, and park factors.

I use them as a starting point to my handicapping and I thought others may be interested.

[ebemiss]

Played

Over 9 Atl/Cin -105

[Love The Action]

Played

Over 9 Atl/Cin -105

I was on the under...good game nonetheless.

I noticed the Boston game was projected at 9.7 and was an easy cash. Why not have a second play on Boston.?

Do you simply go with the biggest difference between the closing line and your model to make it a play?

What filters do you use after the projections are calculated? I assume you flat bet based on certain comments you have made. So what is your model's record on the season?

[clarkd32]

how do you use the bullpen to create your projected team total? ytd stats, more recent stats, or availability of certain pitchers?

just curious...

[ebemiss]

LTA,Busy earlier didn't post any of my day plays. Wow, That's great you were on the under thanks for the update. Classy move to let me know you had the winner as soon as the game was over. Nice job. You must have had a very profitable day.

A friend on another forum has tracked every projection since mid April. I'll try and get in touch with him to get an update on which numbers/situations have been most profitable. I have an updated record from a week or two ago, but I'd rather get the most recent before I post anything.

There have been great situations to use the projections for profit and an angle or two to fade it in certain situations. It's not perfect, although I don't think I ever claimed it was. It's just another handicapping tool to use.

[ebemiss]

how do you use the bullpen to create your projected team total? ytd stats, more recent stats, or availability of certain pitchers?

just curious...

Yes. total bullpen stats are factored in the totals, not available pitchers. That's where the actual handicapping comes in.

These numbers are just a starting point. I don't usually blindly play them, and wouldn't recommend that ever. But they are fairly accurate and the totals seem to move towards the early money on alot of overnight totals.