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Brosuf riding .600 teams system thread
Just testing out a system here. Riding all .600 teams on the ML. The theory is that if we ride these teams from the start, we would win 60% of the time and in capping 60% or above is pretty darn good so of speak right?
Lets see if this system is profitable or not. Tracking starting today.
Boston and Philly made the cut so lets ride it.
Boston and Philly
0-0-0 record
Good luck bro. nice to see you in the mlb forums
What about the heavy juice? .600 teams will usually be heavy favorites.
Didn't recognize most of you guys since I only see avatar. LOLOriginally Posted by Anthonyg7
I'm not betting on MLB this year but would like to test things out to get a taste of it.
I understand that but I'm more focus on winning percentage right now.
If I was betting and with gambling, I'll taking the + points by laying -1.5. It is still gambling by the end of the day.
Baseball and high juice and RL +/- 1.5 is something I don't yet see. I'm more used to the -110 usual odds with them other sports.
Just recently, I ran into a local bookie who plays all games, spread included at even. Too bad he does not play MLB but just nba and NFL. What I am getting at with this experiment is to ride with winners and always bet on winners. However, I do also understand that with spreads involved, even the detroit lions of yesterdays were profitable the whole year, even though they lost all of their games. LOL
Instead of jumping around and trying to pick a winner, how about just stick to one or 2 winning record teams and just ride them till the end for a gradual potential gain. A system where you do not have to stress yourself and like mutual funds, although small returns but yet a positive return in the long run.
Looks good on paper I know.
philly won
1-0-0
waiting for boston tonight
When there is another .600 team rise up, I'll add them to the listing and when a .600 falls down, I'll drop them from the listing.
Boston won ML
2-0-0
next game, same thing. tracking ML for philly and boston again.
a few more wins by yankees and/or braves, imma add them to the system.
Boston won and philly lost
3-1-0
ml boston and philly again until they drop out of the .600 league.
If yankees win tonight, they are in the .600 league.
Last edited by NBA_Brosuf; 07-18-11 at 10:01 PM.
Tues ML for the .600 system
Boston
Philly
yankees
Boston lost
philly won
yanks lost
4-3-0
next .600 system rider
Boston
Philly
poor yanks, they just barely got onto the .600 train for some playtime and with the loss, they are back down to the minor league. LOL
boston wins
philly wins
.600 system 6-3-0
next up
Boston
yankees <<-- congrats for .600
philly
You should parlay the games. Cuts out the juice.
Just to put this out there: A moneyline of -150 needs to win 60% of the time to break even. So maybe it would be wise to hone your system to something around that, like only bet .600+ teams at a line below -150?
I dunno about this system though, it seems kind of obvious.
GL anyway homey
After all, if you have 2 or 3 teams, you must win 2 to make a daily profit, so just do a parlay. Maybe I will even take my advice.
yeah, this is just a rough draft. In order to make a system play to work, filtration is needed, money management is needed and chasing requires a big bankroll to ride a slump. No chasing allow in this system.
I guess you can say that with this basic system here, if there is a win then it will be a small win by the end of the season. This system here fits more of a casual better, bets on the best team(s) and have a cold one and who gives a chit type of a thing. Stress less without spending 6 hours a day doing research.
Now if I was really tracking this system, I'll put a filtration like this.
If ML is more than -150, take the RL and these .600 teams give out -1.5 runs for some positive odds.
You bring up a good point. I will add the filtration and track things starting right now at 0-0-0. Lets see what the results may bring.
I'm not playing Yankees since that game has already started.
Friday
Boston ML -136 3U
Philly RL -1.5 +115 3U
yankess for Friday after today's results. If they lose, they lose their .600 title. If they win, they get to play for Friday possible at RL -1.5 +120
0-0-0 for Friday.
good luck with this dude..... think you are better off with small moneyline dogs.....when you see the line drop..and the public is split or is overwhelming on one side...laying -1.5...generally is a bad bet, that was put in by the books to suck more money out of squares.....I believe 25 to 30 % of games fall on one run
Last edited by JR007; 07-21-11 at 08:13 PM.
thanks JR. You always be giving me some good infos.
I know the game of baseball but when it comes to MLB bettings and odds, I am in the dark. I'm trying to learn it as I go for a possible next year's season.
Now I understand why the books puts it as -1.5 instead of -2. Winning by 2 runs are no joke. I'm so used to spread at -3 and beyond at other sports but seeing it as -1.5 in baseball, it just tickles my fancy with them RL.
I'm giving this trial run a shot and anything in the positive numbers will be good.
Whoo hoo JR. Lets see how this will pair off. My first sweep. LOL Too early to say how this will hold up.
2-0-0 +6.45
Next one for SAT.
San Diego Padres
Philadelphia Phillies
-Philadelphia Phillies (-144) [General] to win 4.32 risk 3.00
Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox
-Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-130) [General]to win 3.90 risk 3.00
4-0 +12.45Whoo hoo JR. Lets see how this will pair off. My first sweep. LOL Too early to say how this will hold up.
2-0-0 +6.45
Next one for SAT.
San Diego Padres
Philadelphia Phillies
-Philadelphia Phillies (-144) [General] to win 4.32 risk 3.00 winner
Boston Red Sox
-Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-130) [General]to win 3.90 risk 3.00 winner
Looks like philly -1.5 -105 and Boston -1.5 +130 are both winners today under this test run system.
I'm not adding today's result to the tracking. Same Drill for the next game. All .600 teams play the ML but if more than -150, take the RL.
just play a daily labby line , you will be up every season, but mind you even the +0.600 teams are subject to a 6+ game losing skid at some point , a labby line can take care of it.
thankx for that labby tip.
a losing skid will drop a team out of the .600 club and will save the destruction of a dangerous chasing?
With losing, someone else is going to rise to play them so it should balance it out somehow. In theory and on paper that is.
Good luck!
Have you thought about playing the -1 RL instead of the -1.5 RL? About 30% of all games over a MLB season will end with a one-run difference. Therefore, instead of losing on those plays, you would push and save yourself a lot of profits using the -1 RL for this system.
If your book does not offer a -1 RL (neither of my locals offer these), you can do it yourself by betting half of the wager on the ML and the other half on the -1.5 RL. For example, assuming your 1x = $100 and Boston is a -150 ML favorite with the -1.5 RL at +125, you could take Boston ML (-150) for $50 and take the -1.5 RL (+125) for $50. If Boston loses, you lose $125. If Boston wins by 2, you win $112.50 and if Boston wins by 1, you effectively push because you win on the $50 ML wager but lose on the -1.5 RL wager. You are basically trading away part of your potential profit of playing the -1.5 RL for the ability to push on the one run games.
With this particular system you are trying out, I think you would win more using the -1RL (despite the smaller payouts) because you would push on the one run win instead of losing. I actually think there is a math formula you can use to confirm whether you are better off with the -1 RL v. the -1.5 RL, which is based on historical results of the teams (i.e the number of games ending at a one run difference) and the average odds those teams generally face on the ML and -1.5 RL. Good luck!
Dude, as always good luck....just be careful and pick your spots
totally yes way lta. In bases, that .5 point, might as well round it up to 1. I mean it is not like a baseball game is going to tie with extra innings and winning by the .5 hook. -1.5, I see it as a team must win by 2. You gave me an insight into something here. I'm not quite there yet and all of these styles of bettings are rather new to me and too much for me to absorb right now. I'm getting what you are saying though. Low rewards = low risk but a lesser stress free way to play bases due to that push factor. I'm going to incorporate everything you have shown and for next year in MLB, I'm standing with ya.Good luck!
Have you thought about playing the -1 RL instead of the -1.5 RL? About 30% of all games over a MLB season will end with a one-run difference. Therefore, instead of losing on those plays, you would push and save yourself a lot of profits using the -1 RL for this system.
If your book does not offer a -1 RL (neither of my locals offer these), you can do it yourself by betting half of the wager on the ML and the other half on the -1.5 RL. For example, assuming your 1x = $100 and Boston is a -150 ML favorite with the -1.5 RL at +125, you could take Boston ML (-150) for $50 and take the -1.5 RL (+125) for $50. If Boston loses, you lose $125. If Boston wins by 2, you win $112.50 and if Boston wins by 1, you effectively push because you win on the $50 ML wager but lose on the -1.5 RL wager. You are basically trading away part of your potential profit of playing the -1.5 RL for the ability to push on the one run games.
With this particular system you are trying out, I think you would win more using the -1RL (despite the smaller payouts) because you would push on the one run win instead of losing. I actually think there is a math formula you can use to confirm whether you are better off with the -1 RL v. the -1.5 RL, which is based on historical results of the teams (i.e the number of games ending at a one run difference) and the average odds those teams generally face on the ML and -1.5 RL. Good luck!
As always, thanks LTA for showing this newbie the ropes.
Luck is the name of the game but can't rely on luck to bail us out all the time. I think them Vegas odds setters are getting sharper. Boston and Philly games for Monday, they be juicing the ML like crazy.
Odds like thus, I prefer not to play. However, the show must go on to gain a better result for the fun run.
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-140) 3U
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110) 3U
Under LTA advices, 1.5U on -1.5 and 1.5U on ML too much to track but just wanted to make a point.
Boston and philly both lost
4-2 +4.95
Tuesday .600 play cards which includes yanks
New York Yankees -1.5 (-150)
Philadelphia Phillies -120
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
7-2 +14.10
Weds cards
New York Yankees -1.5 (+145)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+100)
+11.10 8-4
Thurs cards
Boston -1.5 (-135)
Philly Whatever the line is, that is the play for philly. If ml more than 150, take rl.
both lost
+5.10 8-6
Looks like this system play here is not working. A few more of these and I'm pulling the plug on this system play.
Fri cards
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-119)
Boston Red Sox -102
No way don't pull that plug. You got to fight the juice.
Did you know since June 1st, The Red Sox and Phillies won on the same day 19 times. That bet would lose 22 times. That is good considering you would be getting +odds just about every time. Even if both teams that day are -200 you would be getting +125 odds. (19 x 125 = 2375) - (22 x 100 = 2200) = $175 profit. Believe me there were many times that payout would have been MUCH more.
If you don't like the 2 team parlay method, try another slight chase variation.
You are on the right track for successful betting!
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