[cappinthepigs]

Good work on those plays

[pacocn]

Biff, Loving the Tribe today at -105

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, Loving the Tribe today at -105

i like it too. Carrasco has been going well, and i think that the Tribe will be able to hit Zach Duke. everyone else does...

[Lord and Master]

haha, good one, LM.

I was being dead serious, there's nothing wrong with that

for what it's worth, it seems as if the method that i use tends to generate plays, at least in part, based upon the delta between ERA and xFIP. so, if ERA is relatively high, i'm more likely to be on under, and if ERA is relatively low, i'm more likely to be on the over.

lol, I usually bet unders when the ERAs are through the roof and you happen to be on the opposite side way more often than not. The cards/orioles game today for example, you're on the over, two pitchers with sky high ERAs. Yesterday for the cards, two pitchers with low ERAs you were under.

[BiffTFinancial]

I was being dead serious, there's nothing wrong with that lol, I usually bet unders when the ERAs are through the roof and you happen to be on the opposite side way more often than not. The cards/orioles game today for example, you're on the over, two pitchers with sky high ERAs. Yesterday for the cards, two pitchers with low ERAs you were under.

heh heh, wasn't sure about the ERA comment. i've seen some people catch shit or be viewed as overly simplistic for relying on "old" stat like ERA.

actually, i was on over in Cards game yesterday and am again today. i totally agree that you get great value by going under with high ERAs, over with low ERAs. generally, if both SPs have xFIPs a run or more off from their ERA (and in the same direction), my method seems to trail the xFIP, and go contra the ERAs, which i think generally agrees with your point.

[Lord and Master]

heh heh, wasn't sure about the ERA comment. i've seen some people catch shit or be viewed as overly simplistic for relying on "old" stat like ERA.

people do but let's be honest, without a serious, thoroughly backtested model or a very strong understanding of the market it doesnt matter if you use ERA, xFIP, SIERA, or the sky being blue today then it's not possible to beat the books.

actually, i was on over in Cards game yesterday and am again today. i totally agree that you get great value by going under with high ERAs, over with low ERAs. generally, if both SPs have xFIPs a run or more off from their ERA (and in the same direction), my method seems to trail the xFIP, and go contra the ERAs, which i think generally agrees with your point.

you should just leave ERA out all together if your model is using ERA to generate a run prediction and not as a guide for how the market will bet