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Ray's 2011 MLB Picks Pt. 2
After getting wrecked in the first half of the season to the point that I just decided to take a break for a while, I'm back with a new strategy. So far, it's doing decent and at the risk of jinxing myself, I've decided to post the plays here to track them.
All plays are to win a unit.
Today, they all happen to be totals and lines are from 5dimes.
6/27 Plays
Cle/Ari Under 9 @ -117: Risk 1.17 to win 1
Atl/Sea Under 6 @ +102: Risk 1 to win 1.02
Cin/TB Under 7.5 @ +108: Risk 1 to win 1.08
i like all three of those. couldn't quite pull the trigger on CIN/TB because of Mike Leake, but love unders at the Trop. BOL with your plays.
Thanks
I've been reading "Conquering Risk" especially about MLB modelling in regard to EV and I think it's really helped me pick my plays. I went from betting instinctively to putting more emphasis on probability in association with edge and the given lines. Let's see how it works out.
6/27 Plays
Cle/Ari Under 9 @ -117: Risk 1.17 to win 1 PUSH
Atl/Sea Under 6 @ +102: Risk 1 to win 1.02
Cin/TB Under 7.5 @ +108: Risk 1 to win 1.08
2-0-1 (+2.1u)
Not bad for a start. Let's see if we can keep it up
2-0-1 (+2.1)
Here are some more unders for you to run with today.
Cle/Ari Under 9.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u
Bos/Phil Under 9.5 @ -105 1.05u to win 1u
Tex/Hous Under 8.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u
Good luck guys!
Im also heavily leaning on sf/chi over 6.5 but i cant get myself to pull the trigger on it...
Wrap it up boys! Clean sweep!
3-0-0 (+3u)
Cle/Ari Under 9.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u
Bos/Phil Under 9.5 @ -105 1.05u to win 1u
Tex/Hous Under 8.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u
Total: 5-0-1 (+6.1u)
Good
Originally Posted by Raynor21
Wrap it up boys! Clean sweep!
3-0-0 (+3u)
Cle/Ari Under 9.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u
Bos/Phil Under 9.5 @ -105 1.05u to win 1u
Tex/Hous Under 8.5 @ -120 1.2u to win 1u
Total: 5-0-1 (+6.1u)
Thanks!Good
Thing is, remember, I'm not picking winners, I'm basing it all on probability, so I'm worried a few losing days are right around the corner. Hopefully, I can keep my head above my projected goal of 56%.
Other than the Philly/Boston game, nothing really looks that good.
Here's my kind of list of what looks profitable tomorrow:
Rockies/White Sox under 9 @ +108
Pirates ML @ +130
Tigers -1.5 @ Even
Brewers/Yankees U 8.5 @ +105
I'm definitely looking at Phil/Bos Under though as a play tomorrow. The others, I'm going to sleep on and look at line movement in the morning.
Official play
Phillies -120 Risk 1.2 for 1
Lost that one.
5-1-1 (4.9u)
Three plays today!
Bos/Hou Under 9 @ -115 1.15 to win 1
STL/TB Under 8.5 @ -110 1.1 to win 1
Bal/ATL Under 7.5 @ -105 1.05 to win 1
BOL boys!
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