1. 05-31-11 11:36 PM #1
    qbsafety8
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    June Favorites on the RL

    Anyone have any statistics on how often large favorites cover the run line? I have no clue but am gonna keep track of favorites = or > -150, and see how often they cover the RL. Not gonna play them until I have a good enough sample size. So lets begin....

    6/1

    Phil -155
    Tampa Bay -155
    Boston -150
    Detroit -160
    Atlanta -200
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  2. 05-31-11 11:51 PM #2
    face
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    all lost today.
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  3. 05-31-11 11:53 PM #3
    BigDan
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    with the way offenses are down and so many teams really dont seem as far apart as the odds would have you believe, id personally rather be taking the 1.5 whenever i can get it for a good price.
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  4. 06-01-11 12:10 AM #4
    qbsafety8
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    Good pt big Dan but If I find these faves are winning by 2+ runs often then I'd stay away from betting the dogs and find the faves I like... But it seems like the dogs win a lot and cover more. I have no clue so I'm just seeing how this goes
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  5. 06-01-11 10:02 PM #5
    qbsafety8
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    Phil 1-2 L
    Tampa 0-3 L
    Bos 4-7 L
    Detroit 4-2 W
    Atl 4-2 W but no cover

    Favorites (= or > -150): 1-4 vs. the RL
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  6. 06-01-11 10:30 PM #6
    qbsafety8
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    tomorrows biggest fave is cleve at -140... if it hits -150 we'll play it, if not.. its a day off
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  7. 06-06-11 01:58 AM #7
    qbsafety8
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    6/2
    St. Louis -170.. 7-12 L

    6/3
    LA Angels -155.. 3-2 W no cover
    Bos -185.. 8-6 W
    Az -185.. 4-0 W
    St. Louis -175.. 6-1 W
    Phil -160.. 1-2 L

    6/4
    Bos -200.. 9-8 W no cover
    Az -150..2-0 W
    SD -150.. 6-3 W
    St Louis -180.. 5-4 W no cover

    6/5
    CWS -155.. 3-7 L
    SD -175.. 7-2 W
    Az -170.. 4-9 L
    St. Louis -175.. 3-2 W no cover
    Phil -200.. 7-3 W
    Fla -150.. 5-6 L
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  8. 06-06-11 02:03 AM #8
    qbsafety8
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    Favorites (= or > -150):
    13-8 overall
    8-13 vs. RL

    Through June 5.

    Tomorrows line-up:

    Phil -190
    Cleve -165
    Texas -155
    SF -200
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  9. 06-06-11 02:32 AM #9
    suicidekings
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    Pretty sure that the RL -1.5 will be a long term loser over a broad-based sample. Look at the frequency of 1 run wins in MLB. If you're going to spend the time tracking them, I would suggest adding additional filters outside of price.
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  10. 06-06-11 03:07 AM #10
    vyomguy
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    let me save you time.

    35% of the games end within 1 run gap. The remaining 65% of the games have more than 2 runs difference.

    This is over 8 years worth of data.

    Now, those 65% part...it could be favs or underdogs.....same goes for 35% part as well.
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