[Cookie Monster]

I am posting here a line that is way off of my model line. Most of the days I find a line so off that I believe my model is broken. But it still give the correct line in 80% of the games, so there has to be another explanation.

For example, yesterday LAD - CWS. The line was +144 / -154, while my model said it was a pick'em game. Both teams have about the same power rating; Lilly has been a solid starter for years, while Humber is an untested starter (40 unremarkable IP in MLB last 4 years, converted to starter this year with mixed success in 45 IP). So, the starter advantage more or less compensated the HFA. So, why was White Sox so heavy favorite?

The WTF line of today is TB - FLA. In team power ratings TB has a very small advantage (.530 vs .527). The issue is the starter. Price is a quality starter, while Vazquez is projected as average. I guess the line is influenced by Vazquez bad numbers this season, but 37 IP should not weigh so heavily in the big picture. Besides, most of the advantage should be neutralized by the HFA, so my model says TB is barely favored. But the line is -156 / +147. Could someone explain?

[agharah1]

Whose hitting hotter right now?

[VicVega91]

best of luck with the Marlins today !!

[kernssca]

I see TB being the hotter more consistant team, the line may be a little off but TB is definately a good play in my opinion

[greva]

I already locked my play in on FLA earlier..

Think is has some value!

[HoulihansTX]

Public perception.

Books can get away with this type of line B/c bettors will side with Tampa no matter the Price, no pun intended.

5 minutes worth of handicapping reveals that the Marlins are better against Lefties, than Righties.

I am on the Marlins myself. I will have fun watching Price being the 3rd out multiple times, with bases loaded.

[No coincidences]

Over is the play here.

I'd love to back Price because Vaz flat-out blows. No play on the side, but I definitely wouldn't lay that kind of road chalk. I think there will be plenty of runs scored.

[pacocn]

how about tampa -1.5 at +110,
I could see Vaz can getting lit up

[jim]

the american league has dominated interleague play over the years, pretty well all their lines are inflated.

not to mention ''chase'' bettors going for one win on the al side.


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no points for you, jobu! - sbr management

[thebestthereis]

line is about right, with obvious shading towards tampa because of price, their road record and vasqueline sucking so bad. marlins +150 at home is the only way to look at this game. to me a decent bet might be marlins and over, two bets. marlins can hit, have been getting guys on base, and one clutch hit gives them 4 runs in this game. marlins muster 4 runs you cannot lose money. good luck!

[No coincidences]

Vazquez is projected as average. I guess the line is influenced by Vazquez bad numbers this season, but 37 IP should not weigh so heavily in the big picture.

Small picture or big, the guy sucks and really has no business being in baseball.

He's given up 135 runs and 206 hits in his last 196 IP. Pitching for good teams.

Just awful.

[keel44]

Simple. The public loves David Price and HATES Vazquez.

[Bswitz32]

I dont know if only the public hates Vazquez!

I am looking Over for this one....the Marlins won last night and the Rays are the hotter team so just go over and call it a day

BOL