[Deggs]

Record: 4-1
Profit: +2.74 units > flat stake
NBA: 2-0 > +1.6
MLB: 2-1 > +0.35
NHL: 1-0 > +0.78





MLB: Atlanta Braves - Washington Nationals
Pick: Atlanta @

Ugly game for the Braves backers yesterday. Hudson and the defensive played miserable, alowing home runs each with 3 runs two times, in consecutive innings. They had a spark late in the game, with 5 runs scored in the 8th one, but couldn't overcome a 1-7 deficit, the final score was 6-7. Today Hanson should take care of business better than Hudson did. Hanson has a 4-3 season so far with 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, has allowed just 13 runs in a little more than 40 innings of work, which is impressive in my book. Most important, he has 3 W's in a row, against the Giants and the Padres away, and against the Brewcrew at home. In these 3 W's, he allowed just 3 runs in 20 innings of work, and the Reds outscored the oponents 19-4 during that span. One could say everyone loves Hanson and they play much better lately with him on the mound. On the other side, John Lannan has a 2-4 season, with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. He allowed 21 runs in 34.4 innings on work and never played more than 6.2 innings in one game, usually being pulled out after the 5th one. He has 3 L's in a row, and he allowed 12 runs in 13.4 innings. I simply can't see how the Nationals can repeat a performance like today and Hanson will roll in this one.

NBA: Miami Heat - Boston Celtics
Pick: Miami Heat -2

Ok, before everyone starts saying "how can you buy so many points????" I want to say that I'm doing this for a long time now and I have some profit. I'm buying points especially during playoff. Today Miami should even cover that spread of 7.5 buy why risk so much? The single advantage Celtics had in front of Miami's Big Three, was the point guard position. Dwyane Wade aranged this to not be a problem. Rajon Rondo plays almost with one hand and Delonte West, altough he plays decent, can't fulfill Rondo's role. I had Rondo in game 4 under 10.5 assists @ 1.83 and he had just 5 assists. It is obvious that he can't play at the same level and Boston without his passes will not be as efficient as they were in game 3. LeBron is in front of a major performance this year, beating the C's in the playoffs after so many years.

TOTAL ODDS: 2.1

[Deggs]

Heat won 97-87.

Atlanta Braves leads 3-1.

[Deggs]

Record: 4-2
Profit: +2.09 units > flat stake
Sides: +1.26
Totals: +0.83





Pick: under 7.5
Odds: 1.85
Bookie: Pinnaclesports.com

+ ADDED:

• Atlanta Braves over 4 runs @ 1.84
• St. Louis Cardinals over 5 runs @ 1.9
• Colorado Rookie over 4.5 runs @ 1.95
• Yankees over 5 runs @ 1.9

Game 2 of this series between two overachieving teams and two overachieving pitchers. Cleveland have a turbo start this season, having the best AL's record with 23-11 and a home record of 14-3. Yesterday they registered the first home loss in a month, being able to score only 2 runs on 5 hits, losing 2-8 in the end. Tampa Bay Rays are also having a great season, after starting 1-8 in the first 9 games, they are now 20-15 and have the majors' best road record at 12-5.

Pitchers battle:

Masterson - Huge season, with 5-0, allowing just 12 runs in 46,3 innings of work + 36 strikeouts. He has a 2.11 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP and is a big reason for the Indians unexpected season.
Shields - Solid 3-1 season, with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He allowed just 12 runs in 53.2 innings. He pitched for a full game two times, including a no-runner against the Blue Jays. Has 44 strikeouts. Also has a great momentum, in the last 4 games has allowed only 3 runs on 17 hits, Rays outrunning the opponents 12-4 in that span.

Grady Sizemore is listed as game time decision, after having an MRI that revealed no structural damage with a bruised knee. Batting .282 with six homers and 10 doubles in 18 games since returning from left knee surgery, Sizemore is a big reason for the Indians' early success.

A few trends for this game:

• Over is 4-1 in Rays last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 6-2 in Rays last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in Shields' last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
• Under is 54-25-5 in Rays last 84 during game 3 of a series.
• Under is 13-6-1 in Indians last 20 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Altough these two pitchers are not by any means Aces, their recent form is top notch. Also is a superstition of mine never to bet overs during day games. I expect a low scoring game here, even yesterday should've been a maximum 5 runs game.

Best of luck fellas!

[lacesout]

Like the play and great write up, good luck!

[sickeric]

under would seem to be the way to go. .... slight lean towards Rays +100 also as Masterson has soon a few more cracks last 3 starts as well as Sizemore missing once again from top of Tribe lineup..... Rays are red hott.... gl all!

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

I like this play too. GL

[rthoughton]

thanks for the write up. Im gonna give it a look. best of luck to you.

[Deggs]

thank's guys for the replies. under but in the same time Rays could even be a better play. How @ sickeric said, no Sizemore. Well, IF no Sizemore. Let's hope for a good pitching game.

[terrors3]

Great write up I'm taking Cleveland. And the over

[Spartan14745]

Masterson and Shields have had great starts to this season but we know what type of pitchers these guys are and sooner or later the runs will be scored against them. Great right up but I don't trust these guys, the first few games of the season isn't enough for me to be convinced. GL with your play, hope it hits for ya!

[Deggs]

Added Atlanta Braves over 4 runs @ 1.84. Both my L's came from the Braves games with the Nationals. Chasing a little here.

[Deggs]

great start masterson.

[Deggs]

under is dead. moving on to the braves game.

[Deggs]

it's funny when you need an over and the bases are loaded with no outs, you only get 1 or maybe 2 runs. when you have under you get 4 runs in one half of inning.

[icemaster47]

under in big trouble now

[Deggs]

under is so dead. i already have this as a L in my book.

[blackeyeshamus]

looking forward to ATL right now.

[Deggs]

yeah, atlanta on the way. + cards over 5 and rockies over 4.5. feeling. let's see how lucky i am today.

[icemaster47]

who bunts with a 4 run lead!!!

[Deggs]

for a second i really thought the under might be money. i was wrong.

[Deggs]

5-0 Cardinals already in the 2nd inning

and if that 2nd inning didn't had 4 runs the under at rays would've been money also.

[Deggs]

c'mon Cards one more to get the money back from rays under.

[Deggs]

+ ADDED: [LIST]
[*]St. Louis Cardinals over 5 runs @ 1.9

6-0 5th inning +0.9

-0.1 for the day so far.

[Deggs]

apparently the Rookies game will not start any time soon. added yanks over 5 runs

[qsilver335]

yanks should go over 5. i like it.

[Deggs]

+ ADDED:
Colorado Rookies over 4.5 runs @ 1.95

7-5 for Mets in the 7th inning.

+0.95u

[Deggs]

+ ADDED:

• Atlanta Braves over 4 runs @ 1.84

5-5 in the 7th inning +0.84

[Deggs]

yankees with 5 runs. money back. still 3-1-1 night in the MLB + 1-0 in the NBA with bulls -3.5 great day!!

[BigDeem5]

Rough loss with Tribe today, Masterson didn't hit his spots.

[Deggs]

yeah. but i managed to have a nice comeback after this loss, going 4-0-1 with 3-1 in MLB @ the team totals and Bulls -3.5 in the NBA.

[Deggs]

Record: 8-3-1
Profit: +4.78 units > flat stake
Sides: +2.26
Totals: +2.52








Pick: Tampa Bay Rays
Odds: 1.7
Bookie: Pinnacle

Added:

• Tampa Bay Rays over 4 runs @ 1.87
• St. Louis Cardinals over 4 runs @ 1.83
• Milwaukee Brewers @ 1.7
• LA Dodgers @ 1.6

The Tampa Bay Rays are rolling on all cylinders right now. They are absolutely on fire. Who are they going to meet today? The Orioles, whch they swept last weekend. In Baltimore. A total score of 19-7 in a series completely dominated. And like if it wasn't enough, they've almost swept the red hot Indians. In Cleveland. I simply can't bet against this team and I have to take advantage of their recent form. As a team, they are hitting .250, good for the 16th place, but have managed to produce on those hits, scoring a total of 166 runs, 8th place in the majors, with an average of 4.49 runs/game. Baltimore is coming after a very hard game at home last night against the Mariners, in which they've managed to win, but extremly hard, in the 11th inning, 2-1, after the M's managed to score a run in the top of the inning. Altough they swept the M's, none of those 3 games was won in a convincing fashion, the 1st game needed 13 innings. As a team they have poor offensive stats, hitting .243, 21st place and their productivity is low, scoring a total of 141 runs, 22nd spot, with 3.92 runs/game. Tampa Bay dominates Baltimore at every stat, except the offensive walks, where Orioles have a +0.06 advantage (that means nothing).

Pitchers battle:

Jeremy Hellickson - An up and down season so far but lately it seems that he managed to find his groove, especially against the Orioles. He pitched a week ago, in game 2 of the series, when Rays won 8-2, in a game where Hellickson allowed only 3 hits and NO runs, being pulled out after the 5th inning. He has a 3-2 season so far, with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Overall he has a 7-2 record since last year when he made his first start in the MLB, showing flashes of talent and signs he could be a dominant arm. He allowed 15 runs in 35.4 innings this season.

Jeremy Guthrie - Guthrie has a mediocre season, with a 1-5 record, the only win was on the 1st of April, against the Rays, but then TB started miserable. He has a 4.09 ERA and a 1.2 WHIP. He pitched against Hellickson last week and the Rays scored 7 runs on 10 hits in 5 innings. Has allowed 20 runs in 44 innings of work so far.

A few trends for this game:

• Orioles are 39-80 in their last 119 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Orioles are 16-35 in Guthries last 51 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Orioles are 6-16 in Guthries last 22 road starts.
• Rays are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Rays are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Rays are 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Tampa Bay is clearly the better team at the moment, maybe the best in the MLB, and today they are facing the same team they swept last week. I'm not saying that this series should be a sweep again, but it is just hard for me to not bet on Rays when they are red hot. Hellickson is clearly the better pitcher altough he has 6 years less of experience in the MLB, but he has a great offense which will score some runs early against Guthrie. Altough Rays are 9-10 at home, they must turn on the power here too against a Baltimore team that struggles in every game.

Best of luck fellas!



*might add later some plays*

[VicVega91]

Great info, thanks for the post !!

[Deggs]

odds now @ 1.67 @ pinnacle.

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

I'm all over the Rays! GL

[BigDan]

id probably go the other way if i played it but i doubt i am so GL.