I've always been about numbers and stats over gut feeling picks and am just getting started with capping MLB this year. I've got a pretty rudimentary system in the works and I want to document it as I tweak it. It's done pretty well for the early MLB season (~55% with small favorites and dogs), but this being my first MLB season actually capping games and the small sample size, it could be an anomaly.
Anyways, on to the picks. Keep in mind I'm just monitoring these picks until I have a larger sample size to decide whether to tail or fade the system. All picks are on the moneyline unless otherwise noted.
May 4, 2011 picks:
Dodgers -116 (vs. Cubs) (not counting this as I'm posting this after the game has started. The game stands 0-0 in the top of the 5th.)
Pirates +118 (@ Padres)
Nationals +133 (@ Phillies)
Angels +162 (@ Red Sox)
Giants -139 (@ Mets)
Royals -104 (vs. Orioles)
Marlins +179 (@ Cardinals)
Rockies -132 (@ Diamondbacks)
Athletics -145 (vs. Indians)
Mariners -116 (vs. Rangers)
Brewers +122 (@ Braves)
Brewers +163 (@ Braves)
A lot of picks, I know. In this tracking stage of this system, I will be tracking favorites as "to win 1 unit" and tracking 1 unit on dogs. Let's see how long I keep at this. Good luck to all.