[High3rEl3m3nt]

I have been putting together a nice run in bases by playing one or two team/game totals an evening. Figured I'd post and track 'em in here. Also, a big thanks to a number of sbr posters who have been kind enough to post links to some great statistical reference sites. I'm not sure how well they have been working for helping to pick outright winners, but they have been pretty descent for my purposes. These are my leans for tomorrow, I'm not locking anything in until I see tomorrow morning's team totals...there's a few that I think will have some great value. Also, I have been betting pretty small (mostly 1 unit/gm..occasionally a 2 unit bet).

Wed.
Giants/Pirates U
Mariners/Tigers U
Rays/Twins O

Again, looking forward to the team total lines tomorrow morning. Feel free to chime in with your leans. -HE

[blanda]

HeyHigh 3....15 teams scored at least 4 runs on Tuesday. I am with you. I think baseball team totals are one of the best bets out there. I hit on the Mets (over 3.5) and Braves (over 3) last night. Both cashed easily.

I always bet the over on team totals, and I look for road team value since they are guaranteed 9 innings of at bats.

An early look for Wednesday...Milwaukee over...

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Alright...probably jinxing myself by posting my plays , but I'm rolling with:

New York Mets over 4 -120 (against Gorzelanny)
Atlanta Braves over 3 -115 (against Latos)

FYI...according to baseballpress.com, both teams' are showing their optimal lineups.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

You have to feel for Latos right now...infield defense is failing him. Braves already scored three in two innings.

[EXhoosier10]

Element, I've found myself playing TTo/u for the last few weeks and have done fairly well for myself. Today I played MIL o/4, SD u/3, Ari u/3.5, and nym o/4. Mil already cashed and sd and ari are already having some trouble getting guys on base. I normally only play overs, but these unders looked good today with both bullpens fresh.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

You're looking good today! I wanted to play Milwaukee, but could not get my bet in before the game started. I really like how the addition of Jason Bay seems to have jump-started the Mets' offense. Well, here's hoping we hit that over tonight. Also, I'm not going to bet it and would not recommend anyone else do so, but I think the Mariners hit their team total too (over 3). We'll see...come back and post your leans after tonight's cards finished and maybe the lot of us can find some good selections for tomorrow. -HE

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Also, I have been following Ethier's hit streak and it's been great to see him put together an excellent run. Let's have some fun with this and guess when the streak will end. I'll give the closet person 40 pts (2pt/day increments lol).

I'm guessing 29 games...though, I hope he goes further!

[blanda]

I like the Royals, too...

[High3rEl3m3nt]

If only I could pull the trigger on my Mariner team total over 3 lean...too hard though. Good to see Justin Smoak getting it done, especially in light of the recent passing of his father. Go get 'em Justin!

[EXhoosier10]

You're looking good today! I wanted to play Milwaukee, but could not get my bet in before the game started. I really like how the addition of Jason Bay seems to have jump-started the Mets' offense. Well, here's hoping we hit that over tonight. Also, I'm not going to bet it and would not recommend anyone else do so, but I think the Mariners hit their team total too (over 3). We'll see...come back and post your leans after tonight's cards finished and maybe the lot of us can find some good selections for tomorrow. -HE

Nice call there. Mets had a nice 4 run 9th to win us our TTo/4. Nice ending to our night!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I thought that the Reyes blown call was it for my team total wager, but the Nats blow it in the 9th and I got lucky. 2-0 today. Leans did pretty well too!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Smaller card tomorrow...might play one, or maybe two. ...I'm going to look at Giants team total over, Mariners team total over (if it's 3), possibly under on Detroit's team total...probably 4, and I might continue to bet on the Mets' team total, especially if it's 4. Let me know what you guys think- HE

[High3rEl3m3nt]

also, it's tough for teams to pull out the broom for the sweep, but I'm leaning on Mariners ML too. Pineda's stuff is fierce and fits nicely after Bedard's style of pitching. Detroit hitters are going to have a hell of a time adjusting.

[Bob Loblaw]

Team Totals are the best plays out there imo. I mostly play those myself. Good luck.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

My guts telling me under on the Tigers team total, but I'm staying away from that game. Just locked these two bets in

Toronto Blue Jays Over 3½ -115 X1.5
Kansas City Royals Over 3½ -120 X1.5

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Wife bought me The Yogi Book (i collect baseball books) and I love the guy and his liners. Lol..in fact, I can see a lot of SBR cappers saying similar things. Quote for today, "We made too many wrong mistakes" Also, if you have netflix, ken burn's baseball documentary is available online.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

God damn it lol how much do balls cost?...I gotta start playing my mariner leans. Looking like I could have gone 3/3 on that game (mariner team total ovr./ tiger team total under, mariner ML) Hope you guys rained in on this! How

[blanda]

Like the Mets again...

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I'm gonna pass on the Mets team total tonight..it was my lean, but Hernandez pitches pretty descent at home and the Mets are coming off facing a lefty...BOL though!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

1-1 today (- juice). Royals had some miscues on the offensive side of things and Aviles missed my over by mere feet...that ball was crushed. Oh well...3-4 so far. Let me know what you all like on tomorrow's card. -HE

[EXhoosier10]

nice work on the leans again HE. I wasn't home most of the day and wasn't able to pull the trigger on anything. Looks like lots of 9's for tomorrows games, meaning lots of 4s out there.

If seattle is somehow at 3.5, they'll probably be -130 or so, so I don't think there is much value in hooping for a dice-k blowup.

LAA @ TB: Even with the double header today, TB bullpen didn't get used at all. not sure I like LAA. Ervin Santana has a 3.25 FIP this year. Not sure I can take the TBo/3.5 there even with a 5 eRA. Maybe the hitters will be tired after traveling and playing 2 today, so maybe TBu/4 at -120 could be a play, but I don't think we'll get that good of a line.

STL @ Atl: Will probably look at whichever TT is 3. Usually team totals combine to be a half run under the total and the total is at 7. STL has the #1 offense in the MLB right now (albeit with an extremely high BABIP) and the Cards 'pen has been shaky at best in close games (which this game should be). I'd be happy to take STLo3 at -120

MIL @ HOU: I have a feeling I'm going to pounce on MILo/3.5. Probably up to -130. Milwaukee is #2 wOBA in the past 20 games. Myers has a 4.75 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, doesn't strike people out. Lots to like with this game. I've already put a bet down on Milwaukee for the game.

TEX @ OAK: Texas 'pen should be tired with Feliz out and Darren Oliver + another reliever should be rested today after a few days of long work. Line is OAKo/3 -140. Not sure I can take the bait with such an anemic offense and a solid pitcher on the hill.

SD @ LAD: Again, both pitchers are going well and bullpens aren't an issue. My only concern is that Lilly hasn't been striking many people out this year while pitching about the same. Not sure where to lean here.

[blanda]

Good job passing on the Mets...who do we love on Friday?

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Can't think about baseball right now...my Blazers are playing. Not looking too good...how do you blow a 12 pt lead that fast? ...if you got some free time, tune into this game...it's old school meets new school...I think I see Charles Oakley reincarnated

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I'm not sure if I will hit the Jays team total over 4 (guessing), might play the Jays during the second game of the series due to their traveling from Texas to New York. The Wind is blowing in the right direction and we all know how the ball loves to leave that park. The game total is over 9 for -112 and I am teetering on locking this in before it gets juiced even more. I'm also looking at the cards/braves game and I might take the over on it or the Cards team total over. Other plays that might have some value are Pirates/Rockies under and Padres team total over. I'll post the team total plays first thing in the morning.

I can't tell my friends 'cause they'd kill me (we're Blazer fans), but I made a nice chunk of change on the Dallas ML tonight ...such a shameful gambler lol.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I decided to pull the trigger on the Jays/Yanks game...hopefully the wind keeps blowing the right direction.
Toronto Blue Jays/New York Yankees Over 9 -112 X1

[High3rEl3m3nt]

The Toronto/New York over is being shaded the wrong way since I posted it last night...tread lightly.

The other plays that I'm rolling with are:
St. Louis Cardinals Over 3½ +100* X2
San Diego Padres Over 3 -125 X2
San Diego Padres/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 6½ -115 X1

...and I'm still going to stick with:
Toronto Blue Jays/ New York Yankees Over 9 -112 X1

Yogi quote for today....
"I usually take a two-hour nap from 1 to 4" ...wish I could today...Friday's a long one for me -HE

[EXhoosier10]

HE, I took STL Over 3.5 as well. I also took MIL over 4 for 2u and TB under 4 for .5u

today

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Getting a lot of late inning swings going my way...though the Jays/Yanks over didn't hit. So many bases loaded opportunities...especially when the Yanks had them stacked with no one out ...oh well...I could easily be down a little over three units right now... Now here's hoping the Padres and Dodgers get it done offensively!

...also, was watching the third inning episode of ken burn's baseball documentary series and you guys have got to watch these...some of the antics of players back in the day are pretty awesome!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Looking like I'm back to square one...minus some juice.

4-4

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I know this is squarish and Wandy Rodriguez has an occasional flash of descent pitching at home, but I'm putting two units on Milwaukee Brewers -120 tomorrow. A lean that I might act on is the Jays team total or under on the Cubs/Diamondbacks.

What are you guys liking?

[EXhoosier10]

I'm having a tough time picking games today HE. All I can come up with is ATL and ATL/o4. Also, ChC and Ari/u4.5. Both TT's have some juice to them, so they aren't the greatest, but I like both the matchups. Brett Anderson and Josh Johnson both look like traps to me, so I'm going to avoid those games.

Sidenote: I'm 3-15 on Saturdays, so take anything I say witha grain of salt.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I'm also putting a unit on Jays team total over 4 -115 X1

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I agree with your assessment of the Marlins/Reds and Rangers/A's games too...I think that my Brew Crew play fits right in there too though...hopefully I squeak bye with a W...at least Astros struggle on the offensive side of things...this yogi quote goes out to the Padres..."Slump? I ain't in no slump...I just ain't hitting."...bastads hit into so many double plays last night...nearly came through in the ninth against a very portly Jonathan Broxton...he better have bought Tony Gwynn Jr a steak dinner for that diving catch

[EXhoosier10]

Well Atlanta blew that one late. Beachy had a great game giving up 2 in the 7th. Unfortunate ending, but I still feel like I had the right lean. Wouldn't mind a CG shutout by Garza tonight.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Pushed and shoved today...4-5-1. Ethier logged in another hit tonight and my M's are looking to pull out the broom and sweep their second A.L team tomorrow night, if things go well. Oh...the strangest thing about that game, beside my M's winning again, Milton Bradley takes up his manager's case from second base during the top of third inning and gets tossed from the game....sure, Olivio was safe at first, but come on man...your manager just had words with the ump...there's no need to take yourself out of the game and further tarnish your reputation. Watched the UFC fight too...that gruesome blood-inflating bump on the dude's head (size of a grapefruit) was the narliest thing I have ever seen in an UFC fight. Several times, I caught the dude's opponent trying to avoid touching that thing...and I don't blame him. If that thing would have popped, it would have been the most blood ever spilled in the octagon.