[Brp27345]

I'm not sure if this prop is available at other books... or just at BoDog... but it is new to me... and seems like a prop that SHOULD be immensely profitable over an extended period of time...

They are offering lines like this now in BoDog prop book...

Who will record a win in the game?

Pavano (+125)
Shields (EVEN)
Other Pitcher (+325)

I would say on average other pitcher pays around +250...

And unless I am way wrong on this... more than 1/4 of MLB games end up with a reliever getting the win...

If anyone has anything to definitely prove me wrong please let me know... but anyway... I am going to start keeping track tonight... and maybe do some back testing over the start of the season for pure percentages...

[Brp27345]

Plays tonight... 4/14/11... (All lines for pitcher other than starter getting the WIN)

MIN/TB +325
BAL/NYY +225
PHI/WAS +250
MIL/PIT +225
FLA/ATL +250
SD/HOU +225
SEA/KC +275
DET/OAK +250
STL/LAD +310

[stc9357]

Plays tonight... 4/14/11... (All lines for pitcher other than starter getting the WIN) MIN/TB +325 BAL/NYY +225 PHI/WAS +250 MIL/PIT +225 FLA/ATL +250 SD/HOU +225 SEA/KC +275 DET/OAK +250 STL/LAD +310

Does seem profitable might have to throw some cash back in Bodog if it proves to be legit.

[yisman]

I'll go along as well, but why are you willing to pay the lower price on some games? Shouldn't you target the ones with about +300?

[Brp27345]

Relief Pitchers Getting Wins Bets (Units made is considering +250 price... 1 unit per bet)

Overall - +22.5 Units (Estimation) ... but pretty damn good!!!

4/13 - (5-9) +3.5 Units
4/12 - (5-7) +5.5 Units
4/11 - (3-7) +0.5 Units
4/10 - (4-11) -1.0 Units
4/9 - (4-13) -3.0 Units
4/8 - (4-9) +1.0 Units
4/7 - (4-6) +4.0 Units
4/6 - (5-8) +4.5 Units
4/5 - (6-8) +7.0 Units
4/4 - (1-5) -2.5 Units
4/3 - (2-12) -7.0 Units
4/2 - (5-10) +2.5 Units
4/1 - (4-7) +3.0 Units
3/31 - (3-3) +4.5 Units

[Brp27345]

I'll go along as well, but why are you willing to pay the lower price on some games? Shouldn't you target the ones with about +300?

well I'm thinking the lines are higher for a reason... slimming down on something like that would to me be something that would be done after the higher lines prove to more profitable... ya know...

[yisman]

Yes, there's reasoning behind the lines being higher/lower, but you didn't factor that in in this first post.

I bet any other on Yankees and Cards games.

[linedrivr]

looks like an interesting prop.

[Brp27345]

Yes, there's reasoning behind the lines being higher/lower, but you didn't factor that in in this first post. I bet any other on Yankees and Cards games.

true... but the LOWEST number on the board today was +225... and with back testing I put in +250... I would think that would be fair...

EVEN if ALL 55 wins using this for the year were ALL at +225... it would still be up 9 Units... and of course some of those +300's had to have come in so far... and a bunch at the +250 and +275 level as well I would think...

[Brp27345]

FLA/ATL +250 CASH IT!!!

[Brp27345]

1 down 2 to go for a profitable night!

[Brp27345]

MIN/TB +325 CASH IT!!!

[Brp27345]

2 down 1 to go for a winning night!

[Brp27345]

BAL/NYY +225 CASH IT!!!

Winning night with some games still open!!!

[Brp27345]

Results so far... (3-5-1) (+3.0 Units)

Plays tonight... 4/14/11... (All lines for pitcher other than starter getting the WIN)

MIN/TB +325
BAL/NYY +225
PHI/WAS +250
MIL/PIT +225
FLA/ATL +250
SD/HOU +225
SEA/KC +275 (games must go 8.5 innings with these bets... so this ones no action)
DET/OAK +250
STL/LAD +310

[TheJames]

Looks really interesting. I'll try it out tomorrow

[Brp27345]

Pads were 90 feet away from tying it up in the 8th with 1 out... and got thrown out at home... would have made the bet a winner...

So frustrating... they better get it done in the 9th!!!

[Brp27345]

Overall - (3-5-1) +3.0 Units

4/14/11 - (3-5-1) +3.0 Units

[TheJames]

When do the prop bets show up? And hour or two before game starts?

[johnkreese]

TO be profitable on this at 1/4 games being decided by a reliever, the average line would need to be +300.

[BernardMadoff]

I dont see these props on bodog.

[MexicanStallion]

Did you give up on your parlay system?

[playr101]

interesting..

-playr101

[yisman]

I dont see these props on bodog.

http://sports.bodog.com/sports-betti...ayer-props.jsp

[Brp27345]

Plays tonight... 4/15/11... (All lines for pitcher other than starter getting the WIN)

BAL/CLE +275
TEX/NYY +300
MIL/WAS +200
FLA/PHI +350
TOR/BOS +310
PIT/CIN +325
MIN/TB +350
NYM/ATL +230
SD/HOU +325
LAA/CWS +300
SEA/KC +300
CHC/COL +215
SF/ARI +325
OAK/DET +310
STL/LAD +275

[TheJames]

Plays tonight... 4/15/11... (All lines for pitcher other than starter getting the WIN)

BAL/CLE +275
TEX/NYY +300
MIL/WAS +200
FLA/PHI +350
TOR/BOS +310
PIT/CIN +325
MIN/TB +350
NYM/ATL +230
SD/HOU +325
LAA/CWS +300
SEA/KC +300
CHC/COL +215
SF/ARI +325
OAK/DET +310
STL/LAD +275

I'm playing these tonight

[playr101]

gl tonight..

-playr101

[playr101]

so today went 3-11-1 ???
-5 units??

am I tracking this right... want to make sure..
seems interesting

-playr101

[TheJames]

I went -3 units today on this

[playr101]

ok..
is there a quick site to show who the starter was for each game and who got the win?

-playr101

[ttratter]

sbr odds should tell you quick after game is over.

[Toples]

now this is interesting prop
but has nothing to do with capping skill, but pure luck

[Brp27345]

Results (3-11) (-2.4 Units)

BAL/CLE +275
TEX/NYY +300
MIL/WAS +200
FLA/PHI +350
TOR/BOS +310
PIT/CIN +325
MIN/TB +350
NYM/ATL +230
SD/HOU +325
LAA/CWS +300
SEA/KC +300
CHC/COL +215
SF/ARI +325
OAK/DET +310
STL/LAD +275

[Brp27345]

there in lies the beauty... a 3 and 11 day... and we lose less than 3 Units... and that was also only the 5th losing day of the year thus far... let's go terrible BULLPENS today!!!

[Brp27345]

Overall - (61-131) +23.1 Units (Estimation)
Overall - (6-16-1) +0.6 Units

Early Season (55-115) - +22.5 Units (Estimation)
4/14/11 - (3-5-1) +3.0 Units
4/15/11 - (3-11) -2.4 Units