[Brp27345]

Plays today... 4/16/11... (Early Games) (All lines for pitcher other than starter getting the WIN)

BAL/CLE +300
TEX/NYY +275
PIT/CIN +225
SEA/KC +400 +400 in a Felix game... yea his team always gives him run support.. LOVE IT!
TOR/BOS +350
NYM/ATL +300
MIN/TB +375
LAA/CWS +275

[icemaster47]

this does seem like quite an interesting prop, I will have to take a look, thanks for the headsup

[Brp27345]

Will do back testing of last season... let's see what I find...

Back testing... Percentages (1 Unit Bet on EVERY game)

*** Numbers take into consideration average win paying +250 ***

And to be honest I'm starting to think that +250 number might even be undershooting the average... So if you can believe it... I think these numbers may actually be undershooting the Prop's potential...

1st Half April 2010 - 51-89 (36.43%) +38.5 Units
2nd Half April 2010 - 56-131 (29.95%) +9.0 Units

[Dwell]

Hey Brp, check your inbox.

[TheJames]

so far today nothing has hit

[playr101]

Did not see a line for the 2nd Game ATL/NYM.. so i did not add it in..

with that said: 3 hit today?... -0.8 Units

making sure I am tracking this correctly

-playr101

[BernardMadoff]

...............

[playr101]

anyone get the early game lines for this?

-playr101

[yisman]

http://sports.bodog.com/sports-betti...ayer-props.jsp

Click All Events

[playr101]

oh.. i never noticed the all event button.. thx

-playr101

[playr101]

7-15 today... +8.6 Units

-playr101

[Drakken]

Figures I start trying this right as it turns around.

Monday, 4/18 - Negative, but not too bad: 3-7 for -0.25 units.
Tuesday, 4/19 - 1-13, for -9 units. OUCH.

Looks like that's negative 4 out of the last 5 days.

[Inspirited]

yeah that's usually how it goes drakken. i followed a certain type of line movement on a certain type of nba dogs for a month this year. it was +30 units for the season and goes to shiz once i started betting it.

[MrShrink]

very interesting little experiment. nice discovery.

got an ... if someone could figure out the threshold for avg. innings pitched at which it becomes probable that the starting pitcher will not get the decision, and then placed that against stats such as (obviously) avg ip for starters, avg. pitches taken per inning by team, weakness of bullpens, strength of hitting/scoring between the teams, etc... this could become a lot more efficient and be verrrry profitable.

anyone? this type of stuff isn't my bag and it would prob take forever for me to find it. thanks.

[EXhoosier10]

My average line on the rest of the games is 18.9/8 = +236.

How does last year look with that as the average line? This early in the season, starters don't go as deep into games, so maybe +250 is the high side of the average expected line.

[Cranium]

Keep them coming! Thanks

[TheJames]

Hows this system doing so far?

[yisman]

Got destroyed yesterday but I'm going to keep trying.

I don't bet the ones with +200 unless I feel both starters stink.

Anything +300 is an auto-bet.

BTW, Accuscore is strongly against this. Their simulations on each game tend to have starter winning combining for 80-90%.

[yisman]

I cashed in a +300 when Kershaw blew the lead in the 9th.

Now going to be betting the late games because of the juicy prices.

+325 on the Phillies game and +350 on the Mariners game. Lines high because the SPs are good and often go deep.

Something pretty funny I saw:

Accuscore has King Felix to get the win at 56% and to lose at 43%, while McCarthy is 44/52.

So basically, they're saying that there is 0 chance of a reliever getting the win, while they can get the loss. They may want to fix their simulations.

[TheJames]

Accuscore isn't exactly god

[EXhoosier10]

2008 AL data shows profit at average odds of +233. I'll get NL data and 2009 later today and tomorrow.

[yisman]

Accuscore isn't exactly god

Didn't say they were. I was just surprised to see such blatant errors.

[EXhoosier10]

Does anyone want to spend 30 minutes and help collect schedules for me for 2009? All you have to do is copy two websites into excel
for example,
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule...land-athletics
and
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule...land-athletics
then press a button to run a macro for all 30 teams. If someone does this for me, we can have the number of games won by starting pitchers for all of 2009 by morning. Anyone interested? PM me and I'll email you my spreadsheet

[EXhoosier10]

nobody interested in helping?

[playr101]

its automatic?
i can run it and leave my computer?

-playr101

[playr101]

Importing all the teams 2009 schedules now... 1h and 2h...

PM me about the Macros..

-playr101

[yisman]

lol, some of these are way too low to bet.

Both must start for action. Game must go 8.5 innings.

Armando Galarraga (ARI)

+205




Jonathon Niese (NYM)

+135




Other Pitcher

+175


I'm sticking to the high ones, almost exclusively.

[playr101]

yisman... how is your tracking coming along..

I am tracking every play.. missed 2 days.. 20/21
sitting at -11U..



-playr101

[yisman]

I'm not tracking them all as I'm betting sporadically. I think I've about broken even. Last few days have not been good.

[EXhoosier10]

getting on avg +275 today on the 9 games.

Yesterday went 3-10 +1.1. For some reason, my Cin @ Stl bet was cancelled. Did SP change? oh well.

[ColdBeerHere]

Interesting prop bets....I may take a shot at this tonight and see what happens...May only go with the games with the higher + odds...

EXhoosier, There was a possiblity of pitching change yesterday for CIN i think but it didnt happen....If you are at bodog they had Volquez listed at starter and he did start...I had a bet on the over in that game, and they gladly took my money. At least that's how I remember it.

[ColdBeerHere]

What ever happened to the OP ? Did he abandon this ? lol

[yisman]

Yeah, pretty sure he did.

Tuesday: I didn't get the chance to place any of these bets, and perhaps it's a good thing, as starters won 10 of 14.


4/25: 2-7
4/26: 4-10

[yisman]

Bodog not offering these today. I hope this isn't permanent.