[Panekkkk]

Hey all,

Back for a third year with my Betting Favorites system. See past threads for verification.

After two years of development, I have a very firm formula and filtering method. Over the last two seasons, it has hit at 72%. Last year was the first year of prospective tracking (you can see that the home ML hit at 69% by the time I stopped posting). I have put all my focus on MLB and nothing else.

So far to start the season it has hit at 6-3 (66%) with RL 4-5. With an average ML of -152 over 2 seasons, in order to remain profitable, on the ML, I need to maintain above a 60% winning percentage. As I said, I expect this to continue to hit at around 70%. With one more win, I'll be right back at ~70%. I usually let the first two weeks run by before posting (although I bet the start just for fun) so I'll be posting from now on. I realize that 70% is incredibly ambitious, so judge for yourself and tail with caution.

The runline has hit at exactly 50% making it very profitable. Again, that's extremely ambitious to maintain.

That said, this system is extremely selective, typically averages 1 play every other day. It is highly conservative and highly selective. No room for heavy action.

I will be betting flat, 2 units ML and 1 unit RL, or 4 units ML and 2 units RL. I will also be prospectively tracking a fractional Kelly style of betting, and, after this year, if it proves more successful than flat betting, I will apply it next year.

I'll try and have picks up each morning but many days there will be nothing. Tail at your own risk and good luck to all!

[Panekkkk]

Now if only people would stop DDOSing Pinnacle...

[Panekkkk]

April 13

2 * Red Sox ML
1 * Red Sox RL

2 * Giants ML
1 * Giants RL

[Panekkkk]

April 13

2 * Red Sox ML
1 * Red Sox RL PPD

2 * Giants ML
1 * Giants RL

Season Record

ML 1-0 +2.00 units
RL 0-1 -1.00 units

Total = +1.00 units

[Panekkkk]

UNITS

Should mention that all negative odd bets are TO WIN X units and all positive odd bets are BETTING X units.

[Panekkkk]

No plays today.

[playr101]

Good luck this year.. will follow along..

-playr101

[Panekkkk]

Good luck this year.. will follow along..

-playr101

Thanks

[Panekkkk]

April 15

4 * Rockies ML
2 * Rockies RL

Normally I haven't had a big play this early in the year so feeling a little hesitant about it but hey, it's Garza ... Lockin' it in!

Season Record

ML 1-0 +2.00 units
RL 0-1 -1.00 units

Total = +1.00 units

[playr101]

GL today..

have you ever thought about using a -1RL calculator?
you bet both the -1.5 RL and ML... just like you are doing here...

-playr101

[Panekkkk]

GL today..

have you ever thought about using a -1RL calculator?
you bet both the -1.5 RL and ML... just like you are doing here...

-playr101

Yeah, Pinnacle will let you bet -1. I think I ran the numbers for a while last year and this method (2x ML and 1xRL) turned out on top since I'm varying the ML and RL bets but it's worth another look. Best ROI is probably just to bet RL every game if they continue to hit at 50%. I want 1 more year of data (this year) before I decide on a final strategy (Kelly betting will probably prove best but maybe you're right, I should Kelly bet a -1RL). Either way, it will be fairly profitable but I should probably check the ROI's now.

[Walulu]

Like this pick, more so like the fact Chacin is on the mound for Rocks but agree they should get to Garza. Rocks have looked good so far however my worry is the double header plus travel yesterday.

[Panekkkk]

Like this pick, more so like the fact Chacin is on the mound for Rocks but agree they should get to Garza. Rocks have looked good so far however my worry is the double header plus travel yesterday.

Yeah, I already locked the bet in but I probably should have waited to see if Tulo or Gonzo are out...

[EXhoosier10]

Followed you the last couple of years and liked what I saw. Does your system take into account travelling across country the night before or playing doubleheaders the previous day? Just curious and this year!

[playr101]

here is a excel calculator... for -1RL... for you to play with
just fill in the top three boxes

-playr101

[Walulu]

I'm from the area so do pull for the Rocks (not my first team though) and hope they keep their streak going for you. Good luck!

[Panekkkk]

Followed you the last couple of years and liked what I saw. Does your system take into account travelling across country the night before or playing doubleheaders the previous day? Just curious and this year!

Nope, no variables for travel or doubleheaders so there are always some other factors to consider. It is somewhat dependent on lines though, so some of that will be taken into consideration by oddsmakers (honestly if there wasn't a doubleheader/travel the line would probably be -160 or worse). That said, I really should have held off to see if Tulo or Gonzo are out especially considering Gonzo's #'s versus Garza. I was worried the line would move given how hot the Rockies have been but we'll see if they're in. They should be.

Running the -1RL now and seeing what gives the best ROI.

[Panekkkk]

Okay, so as expected betting -1.5 RL had the highest ROI. Not sure this info helps me make a better decision. You gain ROI but your profit goes down a bit. Then again, with higher ROI you could raise the size of your bets accordingly. All calculations were assumed to be betting to win/to bet $100. Either way, it places -1RL behind ML/-1.5RL except that it probably provides the most stable bank account.

ML only = 72% WP (highest profit, but most invested, lowest ROI)
-1.5RL only = 54% WP (highest ROI)
-1RL only = 54% WP (18% Push) (least profit and more invested compared to -1.5RL only)

[Panekkkk]

April 15

4 * Rockies ML
2 * Rockies RL

Normally I haven't had a big play this early in the year so feeling a little hesitant about it but hey, it's Garza ... Lockin' it in!

Beauty!

Season Record

ML 2-0 +6.00 units
RL 1-1 +1.78 units

Total = +7.78 units

[playr101]

congrats

-playr101

[merikson]

Very nice!!!!!

[windguy]

you don't have any picks for today?

[Panekkkk]

Well, the Yanks are the play today but they are always overvalued which makes this pick a bit hard especially against this Ogando kid. That said, not gonna question the system (although the Yankees are 1 for 4 last year -- overvalued).

April 17

2 * NYY ML
1 * NYY RL

Season Record

ML 2-0 +6.00 units
RL 1-1 +1.78 units

Total = +7.78 units

[Panekkkk]

Oganda hasn't really had a pressure game so I'm hoping the Bronx gets to him. He hasn't had to pitch out of a jam yet and Sabathia has good numbers vs. Texas.

[playr101]

GL tonight

-playr101

[Panekkkk]

Well, the Yanks are the play today but they are always overvalued which makes this pick a bit hard especially against this Ogando kid. That said, not gonna question the system (although the Yankees are 1 for 4 last year -- overvalued).

April 17

2 * NYY ML
1 * NYY RL

Nice! Close game. RL shoulda hit. Yanks had bases loaded bottom of the 8th, 3-1 count, Russel Martin gets called on a check swing (questionable). Either way, a unit gained is a unit gained. 9-3 to start the season, 3-0 since starting posting.

Season Record

ML 3-0 +8.00 units
RL 1-2 +0.78 units

Total = +8.78 units

[Panekkkk]

No plays today.

GL all.

[Panekkkk]

2 plays for today. Don't love the Rockies pick since it's Jimenez' first game back from injury, but it was a cut thumb and he was hitting 95 mph in his last rehab start. Sanchez has been a monster for the giants but his WHIP is pretty high (1.50) and there is no way he can continue striking out 9 a game. Rockies batters have great numbers against him, especially Tulo. It all depends on whether Jimenez brings his A-game.

April 19

2 * Cardinals ML
1 * Cardinals RL

2 * Rockies ML
1 * Rockies RL

Season Record

ML 3-0 +8.00 units
RL 1-2 +0.78 units

Total = +8.78 units

[playr101]

GL bro

-playr101

[Panekkkk]

GL bro

-playr101

Thx bro

[Panekkkk]

2 plays for today. Don't love the Rockies pick since it's Jimenez' first game back from injury, but it was a cut thumb and he was hitting 95 mph in his last rehab start. Sanchez has been a monster for the giants but his WHIP is pretty high (1.50) and there is no way he can continue striking out 9 a game. Rockies batters have great numbers against him, especially Tulo. It all depends on whether Jimenez brings his A-game.

April 19

2 * Cardinals ML
1 * Cardinals RL PPD

2 * Rockies ML
1 * Rockies RL

Should have held off on the Rockies. Too many red flags, especially considering it was Jimenez' first start back from injury. First inning did us in!

Season Record

ML 3-1 +4.98 units
RL 1-3 -0.22 units

Total = +4.76 units

A few plays for today!

[Panekkkk]

April 20th, 2011

2 * Reds ML
1 * Reds RL

2 * Cardinals ML
1 * Cardinals RL

Both Cardinals games are in fact a play, but I'm going to wait n see how the first one goes before I make a decision on the second.

GL all!

[merikson]

If the Cards end up losing the first game, what are your thought on the second?

[Panekkkk]

If the Cards end up losing the first game, what are your thought on the second?

One bad inning the difference so far. Garcia is a far better pitcher than Westbrook. I'll be doubling up:

4 * STL ML
2 * STL RL

[Panekkkk]

If STL pulls out the victory I'll probably play it but for fewer units.