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So if any given game has this 13% chance for the favorite to win by 1 run only then...
The probability for this to occur once in a 3 team parlay would be more like %30, I'm bad at math so I'm sure that's wrong but it's a lot higher than 13% per bet. Or am I missing something here?
Never mind I see you covered that on post #9
Last edited by Qtip; 04-11-11 at 05:56 AM.
So if we bet the -1 we would never really lose the whole bet, we'd just win the 2 game parlay.
I took the top -1RL odds for today, as shown below
-1RL A = 134
ML A = 105
-1RL B = 138
ML B = 109
-1RL C = 153
ML C = 101
to win? = 10
risking amount = 27.63
combination 1 = A*C*E $2.67
combination 2 = A*C*F $3.36
combination 3 = A*D*E $3.04
combination 4 = A*D*F $3.83
combination 5 = B*C*E $3.05
combination 6 = B*C*F $3.84
combination 7 = B*D*E $3.47
combination 8 = B*D*F $4.37
What would happen if one of the games pushed? Can anyone calculate the winnings on the 2 game parlay?
I took the top three -1.5RL and +ML.
-1.5 RL/+ML
SEA(130)/TOR(153)
SDG(190)/CIN(101)
DET(165)/TEX(118)
$35.18 to win $25 (-141)
lets see if we can get this to work
-playr101
Why not bet the three games with the highest total? Road teams also have a greater probability of winning by more than 1 run because they often get an extra inning at the top of the ninth.Originally Posted by TheJames
Why not:
Choose the highest road favorites / or the games with the highest totals.
I still think this will lose long-term but that may help you improve. This would help you avoid teams like the Giants... Halfway into the season I would also filter out the bottom 5% of teams that tend to win by 1 run.
so you're buying the halfpoint in your parlay? what book lets you do that?
I'm not wagering, just testing, but I did this switching the SD/CIN game with TB/BOS. I'm also incorporating this into a chase/labby system to hopefully further reduce my risk, even though the OP said not to. Again, though, just testing this right now.I took the top three -1.5RL and +ML.
-1.5 RL/+ML
SEA(130)/TOR(153)
SDG(190)/CIN(101)
DET(165)/TEX(118)
$35.18 to win $25 (-141)
lets see if we can get this to work
-playr101
Last edited by JVP3122; 04-11-11 at 02:02 PM.
Sorry I was just testing, your right you cant parlay -1RL
Just toyed around with picking teams based on the total. Using the games with the 3 highest totals, You'd be risking $30 to make $10. Gotta win 75% to break even there.
On the other hand, you'd have to risk $13 to win $10 using the three games with the lowest totals.
I'm optimistic, but skeptical about the idea that we can randomly pick teams and profit.
anyone got the most updated calculator? so that i can try and fool around with picks as well?
same as the last time i uploaded.. seems to work
-playr101
Need Toronto to hold this....
Do not want another favorite in my parlays winning by 1 run for a 3rd time in a row...
-playr101
this system is a bust!
that is 3 in a row
-playr101
that toronto game was a f***kin killerpicked the laa/cle and det/tex games that won earlier and jays totally bomb leading 7-0 in the seventh. 3 of the 10 games today and 2 of the 10 yesterday had the favorites lose on the runline.
interesting system but definitely needs guidelines other than picking random games.
Last edited by oklahoma; 04-12-11 at 01:44 AM.
i won today. finally. to win sth again with this system. but guys, look at the scoreboard...2 favorites out of 10, has won for 1 point.
does not seem to be any decent angles that determine whether a score will be within one point.
Not playing this... just for system development
top 3 highest RL/ML odds
-1.5 RL/+ML
SF +130/LAD +162
SDG +180/CIN +106
ATL +120/FL +162
33.86 to win 25 (-135)
-playr101
Maybe for system development, we should try only two bets instead of three bets...just a thought.
So ... if we play two ...
-1.5 RL/+ML
SF +130/LAD +162
ATL +120/FL +162
53.80 to win 25 (-215)
-playr101
looking up team run differential and picking games when the top 10 teams played the bottom 10 would result in a winning days on apr 9 and 10 but still a losing day yesterday. cant really backtest differentials to far since they change everyday, but its a start.
todays games would be tex/det, phi/wsh, col/nym, kc/min, tor/sea. those first three games look to be best as those teams are hot lately.
Last edited by oklahoma; 04-12-11 at 11:24 AM.
So instead of 3 games (66% chance of winning), we have 2 games (76% chance of winning)...it would win only 3 more games (total of 23) assuming 30 games in a month.
What happens to the parlays in the event of a canceled bet?
that part of the parlay is canceled out and the odds are adjusted for what is left in the parlay...
so if you have a 3 team parlay.. and one team pushes the bet.. your parlay turns into a 2 team parlay...
-playr101
another loss
-playr101
playing the top and bottom 10 teams by run differential would give you nym/col,tex/det,kc/min and tor/sea today. so omit one of those games for the parlay. both texas and kansascity leading right now as underdogs.
Interesting thread...but if it was this easy, wouldn't everyone be doing it?
I like the fact that a team has to win by exactly 1 for it to lose, but is there MATH behind this that shows it's profitable longterm?
what do you mean by top 10 teams by run differential?
this would of won today? no?
-playr101
looking at the league standings based on run differentials, if a top10 team is playing a bottom 10 team, then play that match. today there were 4: nym/col, tex/det, kc/min and tor/sea. 3 of those cashed, detroit won by 1.
so there has to be a way to decide which games to play if theres more than 3.
Here is the pdf
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Lol
Did you guys see the section in the pdf where he talks about bankroll size? He's essentially writing that you should have something like 6 or 7 units in your bankroll. I love it.
sounds good.. wish it was that easy
-playr101
I am gonna track it for a few days.. and see what I can come up with..
Taking the highest average odds from RL and ML.. that are the closest together(IE 120 and 165, as opposed to 185 and 100).
-playr101
your better off doing 2 team parlays however you will fail in the long run
it looks very attraction, but what is the basis of this progrma anywya?...just giving you combinations or parlays?
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