1. 04-07-11 04:23 PM #1
    BeatingBaseball
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    Value Play Marlins/Nationals 4/07/11

    According to commonly held beliefs on these threads - big name favs are the square side of a matchup. Well - they may often be the public side – but they are not always the wrong side. When the price is right I’ll take the Four Seasons over Motel 6 any time. We did so last night with Verlander over Bergesen and I’m going that way again in a very similar pitching matchup with Josh Johnson at home -178 ML and +125 RL vs John Lannan and the Nats.

    There’s a lot of talk about the Phillies rotation – and justifiably so. But Josh Johnson may actually be the best starter in the NL. With his simple, straightforward and explosive FB and plus-SL approach - he led the league in ERA last year (2.30). The guy Ks 25% of the batters he faces. Major league lineups hit .224 against him last year and he went an average of 27 innings between long balls. There may be some physical concerns long term (back, elbow) - but he’s healthy right now. He took a no hitter to the 7th in his opening win over the Mets. And the Nats have never hung a personal Loss on him in his 13 career starts against them. The Marlins club is 10-3 (.769) overall in those starts and this one is at home.

    On the other side - John Lannan is a very hittable, middle of the rotation LHer. Much like the RHer Bergesen last night vs Detrioit - he’s primarily a sinker (88mph)/SL guy who pitches to contact and lives by the ground ball. When his sinker flattens out - he’s in big trouble. For a while last year it did and he was sent down to AAA before returning to finish 8-8. He also mixes in a curve and change that he also must keep down and off the plate to survive.

    Line-up wise - the Marlins will probably be without Stanton tonight but table setter Coghlan is getting on, Buck is seeing it and hitting it and Hanley Ramirez, though off to a slow start, is 7 for 15 lifetime vs Lannan.

    I’m playing this one to win 2 Units in much the same way we did last night w/ Verlander. I have 1.58 Units ML and .89 Units RL. That’s an effective -1 Run at -123.5. We get a push on the money overall if Marlins win by 1 and pick up 2 Units if they cover the RL. It puts only 2.47 Units at risk. The break even percentage on the overall play is 55.26%.

    Good Luck to all.
    Points Awarded:

    Rose' gave BeatingBaseball 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  2. 04-07-11 04:32 PM #2
    xelance
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    thanks BB
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  3. 04-07-11 04:34 PM #3
    GarbageMan
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    Great write up BB, am tailing for units suggested. Cheers mate
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  4. 04-07-11 04:39 PM #4
    playr101
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    like it

    -playr101
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  5. 04-07-11 04:39 PM #5
    Mikail
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    I'm on the ML for a unit. Nice write up.
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  6. 04-07-11 05:06 PM #6
    blackeyeshamus
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    well written. thinking marlins.
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  7. 04-07-11 05:12 PM #7
    sheffield77
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    thakns for the writeup go marlinsssss
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  8. 04-07-11 05:20 PM #8
    HoulihansTX
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    What about both teams bullpens?

    More importantly what about, Marlins closer, Nunez?

    Work backwards when handicapping. Everyone knows JJ is a man amongst boys... Nunez is the biggest piece of shit closer around, and has cost me plenty of times when I have backed JJ for a full game.

    When JJ is pitching I go FF or nothing, b/c Nunez will put his mark on the game.


    BOL
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  9. 04-07-11 05:24 PM #9
    Milanboy
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    I like the marlins here too. I don't see them losing if Johnson pitches anything like his first game.
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  10. 04-07-11 05:27 PM #10
    Jack Rebney
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    What about both teams bullpens?

    More importantly what about, Marlins closer, Nunez?

    Work backwards when handicapping. Everyone knows JJ is a man amongst boys... Nunez is the biggest piece of shit closer around, and has cost me plenty of times when I have backed JJ for a full game.

    When JJ is pitching I go FF or nothing, b/c Nunez will put his mark on the game.


    BOL
    agreed...no matter who the starter is...he's not going to be superman every time either
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  11. 04-07-11 05:34 PM #11
    blackeyeshamus
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    all right.
    deal me in!

    marlins @ -180
    marlins -1.5 @ +115

    better part of three bones hanging out there...
    c'mon, marlins! good luck, y'all.
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  12. 04-07-11 06:11 PM #12
    nickos86
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    Why not just put 2.47u on FLA -1 @ -123...
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  13. 04-07-11 06:14 PM #13
    Iced
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    Quote Originally Posted by nickos86 View Post
    Why not just put 2.47u on FLA -1 @ -123...
    Because you get a better price making your own -1 RL by betting on the ML and -1.5 RL than betting on the -1 RL price that the book offers.
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  14. 04-07-11 08:06 PM #14
    rafa martin
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  15. 04-07-11 08:22 PM #15
    Dabeergod
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    good luck pal
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  16. 04-07-11 08:37 PM #16
    No coincidences
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    Marlins are playing like they're trying to lose.

    Their bullpen is horrific.
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  17. 04-07-11 08:44 PM #17
    ebbearsfb1
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    typical bear stuff, bet the nats they blow a 4-0 lead, bet the marlins they look they never hit before
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  18. 04-07-11 09:47 PM #18
    BeatingBaseball
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    Ugly game. Lose it 5-3 in 11 on a 2-run jack by LaRoche.

    Got off early vs Lannan with 2 in the first - but couldn't come up with the kill shot despite 9 base runners first five.

    JJ wasn't perfect but out pitched Lannan - would have been good enough with a little help on defense (read ss Ramirez) and with the bats.

    -2.47 Units
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  19. 04-07-11 09:48 PM #19
    figue
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  20. 04-07-11 09:52 PM #20
    xelance
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    oh well We will get em next time.
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  21. 04-07-11 09:54 PM #21
    BeatingBaseball
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    You must have had the other side, fig. If so - congrats.
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  22. 04-07-11 10:08 PM #22
    Love The Action
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    No worries...onto the next one.

    What's your early leans for tomorrow BB? I just looked at the card and the Cubs and Cards ML stood out initially.
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  23. 04-07-11 11:22 PM #23
    figue
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    i was on nats ,but i had not see your thread ,if i do i ll be with you.
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  24. 04-07-11 11:29 PM #24
    BeatingBaseball
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    Quote Originally Posted by figue View Post
    i was on nats ,but i had not see your thread ,if i do i ll be with you.
    Glad you missed my play on this one, fig. Wish I missed it myself.

    And Rose' - thanks for the points - sorry it didn't hit.
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  25. 04-08-11 02:12 AM #25
    HoulihansTX
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    I love JJ. He is the ******* man, and will be the best in the biz someday.

    He is a younger version of Doc Halladay. Just as Doc had to deal with shitty teammates in Toronto so does JJ.

    JJ problem is that he challenges hitters way to much. He doesnt throw balls, only strikes. He is all power, w/o the finesse that would extend his career. His power game is beyond elite though, and once he finds better teammates he will finally get his due.
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  26. 04-08-11 02:30 AM #26
    Pauulzcappin
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    He's welcome to come to the Bronx
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  27. 04-08-11 05:49 AM #27
    QuikNZ
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    I had a busy day today so missed it too BB, but would have tailed you. Good luck for the next one.
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