1. 04-06-11 05:19 PM #1
    BeatingBaseball
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    Value Play Tigers/Orioles 4/6/2011

    Bergesen, a middle of the road (maybe less) sinker/slider RHer, is an extreme pitch to contact guy - anything but a strike out type pitcher. His FB barely touches 90. Last year he ranked 70/72 in swinging strike % among pitchers who threw 100 innings. He’s not the guy I’d want out there vs this Tigers lineup.

    Verlander is Verlander - a Cy Young candidate. In the opener he only made one mistake - the FB up and over that Texeira jacked for 3 runs – and I think Dale Scott's earlier calls behind the plate had a lot to do with Verlander getting too much of the strike zone on that one.

    At any rate - I see Detroit and Verlander as the +EV value play tonight at both -136 and +115 RL.

    The way I’m playing it to win 2 Units is 1.27 Units on ML and .93 Units on RL. That’s an effective -1 Run at -110. You get a push if Tigers win by 1 and pick up 2 Units if they cover the RL - all with only 2.2 Units at risk
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  2. 04-06-11 05:35 PM #2
    xelance
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    great post, as always...thanks BB!
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  3. 04-06-11 09:46 PM #3
    figue
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    on the next
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  4. 04-06-11 09:48 PM #4
    xelance
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    cashed em both, thanks bud! great call
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  5. 04-06-11 09:53 PM #5
    figue
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    i miss this
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  6. 04-06-11 09:53 PM #6
    figue
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  7. 04-06-11 09:58 PM #7
    BeatingBaseball
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    Cash both ML and RL

    Verlander goes 8 innings - 9 Ks - one mistake to D. Lee.

    Bergesen lasts 3 2/3 and takes the loss.

    3 bombs from Tigers lineup. Out hit Orioles 12-4.

    One intangible edge going into this game - something I didn't mention in the post - was that Jim Joyce was the plate umpire. First and foremost - he's a good ump. But he's also the guy who cost the Tigers' Galaraga the perfecto with the missed call at 1st base last year. Felt pretty confident he would not be "unkind" to the Tigers on any close calls after what happened there and the way they handled it. I think Jim Leyland would like to have Joyce behind the plate the rest of his career in Detroit.

    Also had Tiny Tim Lincecum First Five vs San Diego tonight - like stealing money there.

    Congrats to all who played Detroit and Best of Luck.
    Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 04-06-11 at 10:02 PM.
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  8. 04-06-11 10:01 PM #8
    xelance
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    didnt notice that Joyce umped the game, good call on that one as well. Hope to see more posts from you in the future BB! You are a great capper and have the most knowledge of the game that I have seen from anyone here.
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  9. 04-06-11 10:14 PM #9
    figue
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    BB ,could you share all your plays with all of us ??
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  10. 04-06-11 10:17 PM #10
    BeatingBaseball
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    Thanks to Rose' for the points and to figue and X for the kind words. Good Luck, guys.
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  11. 04-07-11 01:02 AM #11
    QuikNZ
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    Congrats and thanks BB. I cashed both plays! Awesome picks.
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  12. 04-07-11 01:24 AM #12
    GarbageMan
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeatingBaseball View Post
    Cash both ML and RL
    DITTO! Cheers BB
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  13. 04-07-11 05:59 AM #13
    Rose'
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeatingBaseball View Post
    Thanks to Rose' for the points and to figue and X for the kind words. Good Luck, guys.
    Hey BB just wanted to kno if you were going to post any more plays u kno your stuff and would lov to tail bol
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  14. 04-07-11 06:35 AM #14
    NYSportsGuy210
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    How about parlaying Houston Astros and Florida Marlins tonight. Looks good to me.
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  15. 04-07-11 09:50 AM #15
    shipsn2010
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    Thanks bb just to easy, won both ml and rl also had first 5 innings. Great post hope to see you back. GL
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  16. 04-07-11 10:27 AM #16
    Holdin Aces
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    Great job!! Detroit was also my biggest play of the night but ml only.
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  17. 04-07-11 04:26 PM #17
    BeatingBaseball
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    Hopefully - the sequel:

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-h...4-07-11-a.html

    Good Luck to All.
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