[HoulihansTX]

Why????

[7secondsOrLess]

because that team will probably win thats why

[IAMWINNER]

because they always win easiest money in the world

[face]

made some cash on pirates +175 today. that means i can make a mistake (royals?) and i am still up.

[yisman]

I agree that it's generally a bad idea.

[kbr420]

Why????

its not bad if you know the matchups in pitchers versus hitter (i.e CJ Wilson vs that terrible Mariners lineup) but it can an will get pricey with "star/aces" playing against underrated lineups in the public eye (today carpenter vs pirates)

[HoulihansTX]

its not bad if you know the matchups in pitchers versus hitter (i.e CJ Wilson vs that terrible Mariners lineup) but it can an will get pricey with "star/aces" playing against underrated lineups in the public eye (today carpenter vs pirates)

What does a matchup matter.

Once the game starts anything can happen. A couple of errors, and its a dead even game.

[Z1]

In the long run betting -150 is a sure lose, so those bets are simply terrible.

[CappinTerp]

The worst thing to happen to these guys and thoses who tail is to win some games early in the season. They dont realize yet that you keep betting 5-6 games a nite -165 5x,-175 5x....ect you will NOT win $ in the long run.!!

[HoulihansTX]

BOL

[HoulihansTX]

The worst thing to happen to these guys and thoses who tail is to win some games early in the season. They dont realize yet that you keep betting 5-6 games a nite -165 5x,-175 5x....ect you will NOT win $ in the long run.!!

-110 break even point = 52.38%

-150 break even point = 60%

So if you were to average betting in between those numbers, then your break even point would lay in between 52% and 60%.

Which = impossible to make any money.

[warriorfan707]

if always laying juice is a loser why arent people taking all the big dogs on the board everyday

[Giant Rebels]

I love betting -150 in the middle of the season but not this early.

[Bob Loblaw]

Value doesn't have to have a + sign in front of it

[HoulihansTX]

if always laying juice is a loser why arent people taking all the big dogs on the board everyday

B/c 99% of us are losing money..

Value doesn't have to have a + sign in front of it

Never said that.

[Bob Loblaw]

Never said that.

Well then if there's value in a -150 line there's nothing wrong with playing it

[blackeyeshamus]

y'all are the best, big bros.
learn quite a bit from y'all sharp shooters...
might even learn an expensive lesson tonight:

red sox @ -160
red sox @ -162
giants @ -135
giants @ -138

thats 595 hanging in the balance...
wish me luck, because I know I need it, bros!

[EXhoosier10]

In the long run betting -150 is a sure lose, so those bets are simply terrible.

Using your logic... in the long run, betting IN GENERAL is a sure "lose".
---------------------------
In reality though, a bet is all about value. Like Loblaw said, if you see value in -150, then you should play it. The bad thing is that most people use the wrong stats (pitchers/hitters L3/L5 games, hitters hitting .500 against a pitcher in 10 AB's) with no predictive value, so their perceived value isn't actually real.

[Romanov]

y'all are the best, big bros. learn quite a bit from y'all sharp shooters... might even learn an expensive lesson tonight: red sox @ -160 red sox @ -162 giants @ -135 giants @ -138 thats 595 hanging in the balance... wish me luck, because I know I need it, bros!

Ha, I am on both of the dogs opposite your picks. We shall see what happens.

[HoulihansTX]

Its all about your break even point.

The lower it is the high your chances of making money gets.

[SportsLockPicks]

i never break 135/140 myself...never, just move on

[Duby]

I agree! I never lay more than -120 and most of my plays are +money. I dont remember the last time I lost money in a baseball season so I must be doing something right!

[Inspirited]

even though the break even point is higher, a higher percentage of those games should be won by the -150 team.

the break even percentages are
-110 is 52.38%
-150 is 60.00%

it's not like actual results are going to be
-110 55%
-150 55%

from a sports database i see
-110 51.49%
-150 57.34%

A random like like -175 with a break even percentage of 63.64% hit 65.17%.

I'm guessing these were closing lines. It all depends on when you put your bet, where and at what price. Someone could get same game -130 that another gets at -155 due to line movement. Long term you'll likely lose if you get closing lines unless you can pick a non random sample.

I myself am going to stay away from high lines because I did not do well last year with them overall.

[jorge1]

I don't mean to brag at all. I post this with all humbleness bec I know how loing a season can go but if anyone wants to see a good exaple of value come by my thread

I've been hitting a mediocre winning percentage but getting so much value in plays that I've had a winning night every singlenight except last night where I lost .6x. Which is nothing. I went 4-7 and still had a barely losing day.

The way I see it is that if a fave of -140 or better and there issss a clear edge in the game I usually look for a 2+ run margin. For example. If I cap a game to be 5-4 I would not bet the fave although I capped em wining. If I cap the game at 6-2 with a big run differential then why wouldn't I play the runline on the fave?

True run lines can bite u in the ass but I have a easier time cutting a profit per say winning 4 out of 10 heavy fave run lines. Than 6 out of 10 heavy fave ml. See my point?

Regardless. My opinion is faves u play run line. And dogs u play straight up. In fact when I cap a dog winning by a large margin I even play the rrl. Which if u guys check I've cashed some almost every other day so its not an impossible feat and its rewarded handsomely

In my opinion books make money on all the ppl pounding faves. U can have three good days even four or fi ve. But one bad day betting heavy faves and all ur br. Goes to the garbage.

Bol to all. Come by some time. Houli. Great point. A lot of ppl will argue this but few can make faves work all season long for long term profits. Such as sonny. Props to him.

Come by some time

Jorge

[BlastByou]

Saying that betting teams -150 is bad is copmpletly wrong. Just like any other sport it depends on the pitcher and various other components. This like saying that betting a basketball team thatis -3 is wrong. You cant generalize all bets just beacuse of the ML. These bets just like any other depend on if you win. If you pick the right teams you make $$$$, simple as that.

[Flight]

Houli would you say that gambler's who take long shots at +150 or higher is equally bad?

[LLXC]

Should REALLY pick your spots if you're going over -150.

[daviddaman2]

Can't avoid them constantly, but can't play them regularly either. Now and then isn't bad though

[LT Profits]

if always laying juice is a loser why arent people taking all the big dogs on the board everyday

Because blindly playing all the favorites OR all the dogs are both long term losers

[ji03]

Laying -150 in the long term is bad, but if you do it when you find value why not?

[8ArIvd5]

if i play a fave -200 that has +ev am i a loser?

[ebbearsfb1]

I've been playing dogs and unless u pick ur spots, ur still gonna lose

[Pauulzcappin]

As long as you don't mostly bet -150's it's fine.

[blackeyeshamus]

thank you, giants.
c'mon, red sox!
down 7-4 heading to the bottom of the 8th.
who could have known that a bonehead outta the bullpen
would roll out and hit two batters, walk a third, and completely
annihilate any reasonable chance for the red sox? oh, I know!
maybe ...forget it. laporta just went yard. it's 8-4. f@#k.

[warriorfan707]

Sadly a lot of people just don't get it and never will. Your winning percentage is far more important than the prices you are betting.... (obviously in relation to what kind of juice you are laying)