[Illusion]

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

[bigboydan]

heres an interesting stat for you guys.

Barry Zito has a 15-3 Career record vs. Texas

[imgv94]

How many units?

[bigboydan]

i'm personaly passing on that game myself IMG. i just thought i'd point that stat out to everyone, in case they didn't see it.

[Illusion]

Nice stat, but I don't trust trust Zito.

[moses millsap]

I hope Lohse gets rocked and Gardenhire puts Liriano in the rotation

[Willie Bee]

Tampa Bay (S.Kazmir) at New York (M.Mussina) – 7:05 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Could see changing weather in the Bronx today. They’re expecting an afternoon high about 70° with increasing clouds and WSW winds (15-25 MPH). But by game time, the temp should drop to the upper 50s, low 60s at first pitch with a 40% chance of rain and the winds shifting around out of the North at 15-25 MPH (in from left field corner). Depending when those winds really shift, the game could start with the ball carrying out to right-center.

UMPIRES: New crew.

Lefty Scott Kazmir makes his fifth start of 2006 with a 2-1 record and 4.07 ERA to date. The Rays are 3-0 in his last three starts with left-handers batting just .176 with no homers and no walks so far against Kazmir this season. In three appearances against the Yanks (2 starts), Kazmir is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA. At The Stadium, he’s 1-0, 3.60 in 10 innings of work. Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez are a combined 2-for-29 with nary a long ball against Kazmir. Gary Sheffield, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada have a combined .500 average against him.

Mike Mussina makes his '06 Yankee Stadium debut tonight after his first four starts came on the road. He’s 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA in 27 innings versus the A’s, Angels, Twins and Jays this year. Since 2003, Moose is 4-2 in six starts against the Rays, his ERA over 38.1 IP a whisper below four. Over his last 43 starts in the Bronx, Mussina is 25-11 with a 3.45 ERA. With Aubrey Huff out of the Tampa lineup, the most challenging hitter for Mussina is Julio Lugo (.316, HR, 19 AB). Ty Wiggington is 0-for-5 lifetime against the New York righty, with Johnny Gomes yet to face Mussina. Carl Crawford (.194, 31 AB), Rocco Baldelli (/133, 15 AB) and Jorge Cantu (0-for-6) have had trouble against Mussina.

MY PLAY: The Pinstripers are 1-8 at night so far this season and the Rays gave ‘em fits last year. Based on that, I wouldn’t blame anyone for jumping on TB (+205) with arguably their best pitcher on the hill. I will not be going that route however, instead taking the -105 in the under 9½ due to the weather. If I bet anything else in this one, I might take the Yanks on the run line.


Los Angeles (B.Penny) at Houston (F.Nieve) – 8:05 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Pretty typical spring day in Houston with highs in the low 80s, a lot of humidity and winds out of SE-SSE (5-10 MPH). With the 40% chance of rain/storms, there’s a good chance the roof could be closed. If not, the wind will carry the ball out to right-center.

UMPIRES: Alfonso Marquez makes his fourth go behind the dish with home teams and the O/U lines sitting 2-1 so far. The native of Mexico is the least experienced ump on Crew B, and he calls a very tight strike zone with more walks issued than strikeouts rung up.

Brad Penny is off to a solid start for LA this year, sitting 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in his four starts so far (three at home). The Dodgers have lost both of his last two starts despite Penny pitching well. The league is hitting just .225 overall against him, though left-handers have touched him for a .273 mark in 55 of the total 89 at bats so far. Penny’s 25:2 K/BB ratio is most impressive. This will be just his third start since 2003 against the Astros, with the previous two coming in Houston where he is 0-2 despite a decent 3.55 ERA. Penny has yet to surrender a long ball at Arthur Andersen Memorial Stadium in almost 14 innings. Preston Wilson, who is in the midst of a huge slump (3-for 26, 14 K), has hit Penny well in the past (.400, 2 HR, 15 AB). Craig Biggio (1-for-9) has not.

Rookie Fernando Nieve makes just his second MLB start, and first in Houston. In just 7.1 IP this season, he sports a 4.91 ERA and 7:3 K/BB ratio. He’s never faced the Dodgers or any of the hitters in their present lineup.

MY PLAY: At the risk of repeating myself, I’m lousy when it comes to getting a feel for the Astros. Normally, I’d like Nieve a little more in this one since he should be a mystery to the Dodgers hitters, at least the first time through the order. But this is an LA lineup with solid veterans who shouldn’t let a rook righty bamboozle them too much. I’ve always thought Jeff Kent didn’t let his brain get in the way of his play. Last night’s 9th-inning loss to the Dodgers could set Houston back, so I’m chowing on La-La chalk in this one.


Minnesota (K.Lohse) at Kansas City (S.Elarton) – 8:10 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Yet another locale that could get wet with 30% chance of daytime and nighttime showers. The 1st-pitch temp should be in the mid-to-upper 40s with winds eventually shifting out of the North at 10-15 MPH (in from left, left-center).

UMPIRES: New crew.

Kyle Lohse makes his fourth start of the season and has thrown BP in two of his previous three outings to leave him with a 1-1 record and big fat 11.57 ERA. The AL is batting a whopping .371 against him so far with lefties hitting .452 in 31 AB and righties at .290 in the same AB total. In 14 starts opposite KC, Lohse is 4-4 with a 4.52 ERA and 8 HR (82.2 IP). At Kauffman Std he is 2-2 in eight starts with a 5.57 ERA. Angel Berroa (.345, 29 AB) and Mike Sweeney (.308, 2 HR, 26 AB) are looking forward to facing Lohse.

Scott Elarton brings a record of 0-4 with a 4.07 ERA into his fifth start for the Royals after signing a free agent deal in the offseason. His troubles so far have been 16 walks in just 24.1 IP, along with 4 HR. The league is hitting just .222 against Elarton, but those free passes have killed him. The big righty out of Lamar, Colorado, has had some success against the Twins since 2003 with a 2-0 record and 2.20 ERA in a half-dozen outings. This is just his fourth start at Kauffman where he is 0-3 lifetime with an ERA approaching five. Rondell White (.464, HR, 28 AB) sees the ball well against Elarton, as do Luis Castillo (.357, 14 AB) and Nick Punto (3-for-7, HR). Batters available for Minnesota in this one have a .297 average against Elarton.

MY PLAY: Couple of dog pitchers and a couple of dog teams. Pure gut feeling in this one that Elarton exhibits some control and doesn’t move to 0-5.


New York (S.Trachsel) at San Francisco (Jam.Wright) - 10:15 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Weather once again could be a factor with a 40% chance of rain during the morning and afternoon. It should clear off by game time with temps in the low 50s and West winds at 10-15 MPH (out to center).

UMPIRES: Bill Miller is working his fifth game behind the plate in this one with home teams 3-1 so far, same as the O/U lines. Miller is calling a lot of strikes this year, but seems to begin games with a tighter zone than he ends with.

Steve Trachsel (1-1, 3.71) makes his fourth start of 2006 with the Mets 2-1 in his previous three. Left-handers have banged him around pretty good so far with a .346 average (26 AB) and the lone long ball Trachsel has surrendered so far in ’06. In his last five starts against the Giants, he is 4-1 with a 2.02 ERA. Trachsel is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts in San Fran. Barry Bonds (.293, 2 HR, 13 BB, 41 AB) and Jose Vizcaino (10-for-27) enjoy facing Trachsel.

Jamey Wright has been a pleasant surprise for the Giants so far with a 2.0 record and 2.91 ERA in his first three starts. The Giants are a perfect 3-0 when he pitches this year, two of those starts coming on the road. Wright has been brutal against left-handers, limiting them to a .163 average in 43 AB to date. This is just his second start against the Mets since 2003, and he’d rather forget the other one that last but four frames and saw him surrender nine runs and three long balls to squad from Flushing, Queens. Wright is now 3-0 in four starts at the House that Barry Built by the Bay. Wright has done pretty well against Carlos Beltran and Cliff Floyd over the years, holding that pair to a .167 average in 24 AB with just two homers, both by Floyd. His opposition on the mound, Trachsel, is 0-for-7 lifetime against Wright.

MY PLAY: I like Trachsel in this one for a couple of reasons. First, historically he has pitched his best ball in late April and May. Secondly, he had his sinker working in his last two starts and, assuming the ground is a little damp in San Fran today, that should slow the worm burners down for his infield. Wet ground could also hold Bonds out of the lineup.

[Wassymac]

I was wondering if this Encarnacion character was ever going to show up in St. Louis...only 20 games into the season and he gets his first HR

[Razz]

I was wondering if this Encarnacion character was ever going to show up in St. Louis...only 20 games into the season and he gets his first HR

Now he only needs a single for the cycle...he's due up 2nd in the bottom of the 7th.

[Razz]

Nice job Lidge, walking the bases full so you can blow a save.

[Wassymac]

Seems like everyday I see him giving free passes

[Razz]

I mean, there's worse things than watching a pitcher blow a save, but shit, at least make them get 1 hit to score.

[bigboydan]

Lance Carter is now in for the dodgers.

[Razz]

Now the Stros have the bases loaded without a hit (error, two walks).

[bigboydan]

they got out of it razz.

alomar jr. saved the wild pitch attempt from lance carter.

[Razz]

This is unreal.
Bot 10th, 1st and 2nd, 1 out
Bot 11th, 1st and 2nd, 1 out
Bot 12th, 1st and 2nd, no out; bases loaded, 1 out

No runs.

[Wassymac]

And Borowski has now thrown 4 innings of scoreless baseball

[bigboydan]

this is one hell of a game.

[Wassymac]

Oswalt is pinch hitting?

[onlooker]

This is unreal.
Bot 10th, 1st and 2nd, 1 out
Bot 11th, 1st and 2nd, 1 out
Bot 12th, 1st and 2nd, no out; bases loaded, 1 out

No runs.

Couldnt expect anything less from the Dodgers. Piss poor in clutch situations tonight.

[onlooker]

Oswalt pinch hitting for Houston.

[bigboydan]

Oswalt pinch hitting for Houston.

i guess theres nobody else to bat on the houston bench.

[bigboydan]

End 13th

[Razz]

Yeah, Oswalt just hit for him. I wonder if he will stay in and pitch. You wouldn't think so.

[bigboydan]

no he will not razz.

[bigboydan]

E . Astacio
Season ERA: 27.00

ERA: 27.00

[onlooker]

Lead off walk for the Dodgers.

Lets get a ralley LA.

[bigboydan]

Furcal walked

[bigboydan]

looking good for the dodger backers right now.

K. Lofton grounded out to second, R. Furcal to third

[tacomax]

Furcal now at 3rd with 1 out.

[bigboydan]

2 outs now.

[onlooker]

Go yard Kent, you sorry ass motherfu.....

[bigboydan]

walked kent, nomar is up now.

[onlooker]

They are walking to get to the pitcher...Nomar getting a free pass.

[bigboydan]

loading them up to get to the pitcher.