I think there will be value going against Philly this year. Now obviously, they are most likely going to win 90+ so you have to pick your spots. But with the huge plus money on the other side - there will be opportunities. I don't think the Astros are good nor I am the biggest fan of Wandy Rodriguez, but at +225, this will be definitely be considered for a small play.
I like the Braves, but not at -160. I generally do not go over -140 on favorites.
Mets definitely have value with Niese on the mound at +137.
I also am interested in the Brewers and Shawn Marcum at plus money.
Picks will come tomorrow. Hopefully Seattle can hold on for a nice 3-0 day.
I will be taking the Blue Jays and Brett Cecil to complete the sweep on the Twins. There are several things I like in this game. One, the blue jays are simply the better team right now. Brett Cecil is on the verge of being a very good pitcher and has had very good success against the Twins stars, Mauer and Morneau. They have not gotten on track anyway. Also, twins pitcher, Nick Blackburn, had a good 2nd half, but the Toronto lineup is pretty potent and should be able to give Cecil enough support.
2 Units Mets +116 LOCKED
Rolling with the Mets in this spot. RA Dickey was great last year. Was he a fluke? I say no. There are reasons he is older and only now had a breakout season. He changed his style and some of his pitches. I think he is here to stay. The Mets come into this season with many questions and lots of drama. But they do have talent when healthy. And I think they are undervalued here and in general. The Marlins are a solid squad and have Javy Vazquez on the mound returning to the NL after a disastrous 1 year stint with the Yankees. Many expect Vazquez to simply go back to being pretty good. But why? He has a lost a lot of his velocity on the fastball, and that doesn't magically come back.
2-1 today. Jays came close to pulling it out. But lost 3.9 units on that and won 2 units each on the other 2. So only .1 unit increase to the bankroll.
Love the pitching matchup here. Hiroki Kuroda is annually underrated and constantly gets the job done. Barry Zito still has some ability, but I think the Dodgers can hit him well. Look for Marcus Thames to have a big night as he mashes against lefties like Zito.
I also put in a little prop on Thames most total bases vs Belt. But will not be tracking props.
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