[Willie Bee]

Huge Red Sox/Rays series: Go Under 8½ in Game 1

Game Time: 09/15/2008 07:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Scott Kazmir shut down the Red Sox last week and has allowed three runs or less in nine of 10 starts. Dice-K was off in that same game, but he hardly ever has two bad starts in a row. Go Under in Tampa.

The Tampa Bay Rays begin the biggest series in the history of the franchise tonight vs. the Boston Red Sox, and we look for the pitchers to dominate Game 1.

This is a pitching rematch from last Tuesday, a game that snuck Over late in a 5-4 Rays win. Scott Kazmir did his part though, allowing only two runs and five hits in six innings. This marked the ninth time in the last 10 starts that Kazmir has allowed three runs or less, lowering his ERA for the season to a sparkling 2.99. Furthermore, he has been brilliant here at home, where he is 7-1 with a 2.10 ERA, with the Rays as a team going 11-1 in all of his home starts.

Do not lose sight of the fact that Daisuke Matsuzaka is 16-2 with a 2.97 ERA in his own right however. Sure, he did not have his best stuff vs. the Rays last week while putting men on in every inning, and he was lucky to allow only three runs in five innings. Sill, Dice-K does not usually turn in back-to-back bad efforts, so look for a return to normalcy for him tonight. He has still allowed three runs or less seven of his last eight outings.

If not for the Rays reaching Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon for two runs in the ninth inning of this pitching matchup last week, all three games of the that series in Fenway Park would have gone Under. Look for another Under here tonight.

Free Pick: Red Sox, Rays Under 8½ (-120)

[Willie Bee]

San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies Over 9½

Game Time: 09/15/2008 08:35 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez is working on short rest while San Diego's bullpen is worn out. Look for the Over to cash on Monday in Denver when the Rockies host the Padres.

Our Monday night MLB selection is on the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies going over the total at Coors Field in Denver.

After a promising end to last season, Rockies young righthander Ubaldo Jimenez hasn't really progressed this year and has looked very average for most of the 2008 season. Lately, Jimenez has been battling some nagging injuries and hasn't gone very deep into the innings in his outings. In fact, Jimenez hasn't gone more than six innings since his start way back on August 1 against the Marlins. But that hasn't stopped Colorado from winning when the 24-year-old steps to the mound, especially at home, as the Rockies are 6-2 in Jimenez's last eight starts at Coors Field.

Another 24-year-old by the name of Wade LeBlanc takes the mound for the Padres tonight, and although his name sounds perhaps more like that of an NHL player, the Padres have high hopes for the young southpaw and he figures to be in their starting pitching plans prominently for 2009. But although he's one of their top prospects, LeBlanc did not put up major league-type numbers in his 25 starts this season with AAA-Portland, winning 11 times but posting an ERA of 5.32. LeBlanc has two starts in the bigs, and both were against the Dodgers with one being good and the other being not so good, so the jury is still out.

Look for some balls to be flying out tonight in the thin air in Denver, as San Diego's bullpen is taxed after the Padres used eight pitchers yesterday, while Jimenez is pitching on three days of rest. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Padres-Rockies Over 9½ (-120)

[Willie Bee]

Minnesota Twins -113 to beat Jensen Lewis, Cleveland Indians

Game Time: 09/15/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | experts.covers.com

Jensen Lewis makes his first MLB start tonight for the Indians, and that means an early call to the Cleveland bullpen. Back the Minnesota Twins Monday at the Tribe.

Cheap number here when you consider that Cleveland starter Jensen Lewis will be making his major league debut as a starter. Normally a one inning relief pitcher, Lewis will be on a strict pitch count.

That means an early call to the bullpen which has been a major Tribe problem all season. Coming off three games in the past two days where Cleveland allowed 29 combined runs to a weak Kansas City lineup, the early bullpen call isn't something Cleveland fans cherish.

Minnesota sends their hottest starter, Kevin Slowey, to the hill. They have won 12 of his last 16 starts and one of those losses came against these Indians. We watched that game and Slowey was one pitch away from getting out of trouble. You can be sure the youngster has been waiting for this opportunity to avenge the defeat.

With Minnesota in the thick of the playoff race and the Tribe long out of contention we will back the better team with the proven starter at a cheap price. Play Minnesota.

Free Pick: Twins -113

[Willie Bee]

Play Detroit Tigers & Texas Rangers Over 12

Game Time: 09/15/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The total is fairly high at an even dozen, but in this ballpark and with Monday night's starting pitchers, the Over is the way to play the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers.

Detroit has played over the total in five of their last eight games. Dontrelle Willis is back on the mound for the Tigers tonight and he's been horrible for quite some time.

This season, the southpaw is 0-1 with a 10.32 ERA. Over his last three starts, Willis' ERA is 15.19.

The Over is 6-1 in the Rangers last seven games to open a series. In their last 41 games vs. AL Central opponents, the Over is 29-11-1. The over is 10-4-1 in Texas' last 15 games vs. a left-handed starter.

In the last six meetings between the clubs, the Over is 4-1-1. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Tigers-Rangers Over 12 (-105)

[Willie Bee]

New York Yankees -120 over ChiSox

Game Time: 09/15/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Yankees played spoiler vs. the Rays the last two games, and given the struggles that Mark Buehrle has had against the Bombers, they may do the same today. Take the Yanks with young Alfredo Aceves.

The New York Yankees are trying to make their last homestand at Yankee Stadium a memorable one, as they played spoiler vs. the Tampa Bay Rays the last two games and will now look to do the same vs. another division leader, the Chicago White Sox.

White Sox starter Mark Buehrle has been brilliant in his last two starts, but he has never pitched well against the Yankees. In fact, he has allowed 20 earned runs in just 11 innings in his last three starts against the Bronx Bombers, allowing at least five runs on each occasion. While he does have a nice 3.88 ERA overall this season, he has actually been very erratic, either pitching like he has his last two outing or pitching like he has against the Yankees, with nothing in between.

Young Alfredo Aceves pitched very well in his first major league start, allowing just one run on five hits with no walks in seven innings in a 7-1 win at Anaheim over the Los Angeles Angels. He may be tough his first time through the league and he is catching a White Sox lineup here that is batting a rather modest .252 vs. right-handing pitching in the last 10 games.

Throw in the fact that the Yankees are 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings, and look for the Yankees to play spoilers again.

Free Pick: Yankees -120

[intangible fate]

Minnesota Twins -113 to beat Jensen Lewis, Cleveland Indians

Game Time: 09/15/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | experts.covers.com

Jensen Lewis makes his first MLB start tonight for the Indians, and that means an early call to the Cleveland bullpen. Back the Minnesota Twins Monday at the Tribe.

Cheap number here when you consider that Cleveland starter Jensen Lewis will be making his major league debut as a starter. Normally a one inning relief pitcher, Lewis will be on a strict pitch count.

That means an early call to the bullpen which has been a major Tribe problem all season. Coming off three games in the past two days where Cleveland allowed 29 combined runs to a weak Kansas City lineup, the early bullpen call isn't something Cleveland fans cherish.

Minnesota sends their hottest starter, Kevin Slowey, to the hill. They have won 12 of his last 16 starts and one of those losses came against these Indians. We watched that game and Slowey was one pitch away from getting out of trouble. You can be sure the youngster has been waiting for this opportunity to avenge the defeat.

With Minnesota in the thick of the playoff race and the Tribe long out of contention we will back the better team with the proven starter at a cheap price. Play Minnesota.

Free Pick: Twins -113

Not to be a total a-hole, but wasn't it SCOTT Lewis who pitched?