[stevenash]

I win some, I lose some, in the end I usually get some.
Fade, tail or pass, as long as you don't 'dis, it's all good.

Here we go, let's start the season off with a few props.

Prop 1
Under 66.5 stolen bases for the 2011 MLB season leader.
Or in other words, will the major league leader have more or less than 66.5 stolen bases this year.
I say no.

80 percent of the major league speed merchants have horrible on base percentages.
Rule 1 for a stolen base is you must reach base to steal a base.
Easy.

(The league on base average is about .340)
Let's look at the top swipers in both leagues.
Michael Bourn - Astros
Medicore OBA, stole 51 last year
Expect the same, about 51

Juan Pierre - White Sox
Below Par OBA - getting old (33)
Stole 68 last year - won't do it again
Expect sharp drop off - say 55 SB's, max

Carl Crawford - Red Sox
Good OBA, but never stole more than 60 in his life.
Will not sniff 55 in Boston, not in that lineup.
Expect 48

Brett Gardner - NY Yankes
Potential to steal 80
Fastest man in the game.
Yankees will red light him often because of A-Rod, Texeiria, and the rest behind him.
He'll get 48 max 52.

Others that'll probably steal 35-45.
Jacoby Elsbury
Jose Reyes
BJ Upton
Elvis Andrus
Ichiro
Drew Stubbs

PROP 2
Baltimore Orioles over 76 wins
Earl Weaver once said the differenc
e between a good manager and a bad manager is 5 wins a year.
As much as I don't like Buck's ways of doing things, he's one of the best bench managers in the game and has made a career out of making crappy teams decent.
He'll do that in Baltimore.

Nothing wrong with the lineup.
Vlad was nice pickup at DH
Brian Roberts is one of the better 2B in the league.
Nick Markakis is solid.
Adam Jones is underrated
Luke Scott got pop
Derrick Lee at first
Mark Reynolds at third
Wieters can hit behind the plate
Don't kid yourself, this team can hit and score.

Can the pitching stop the other teams from hitting and scoring more?
I think so.
I like Guthrie and Matusz, they ain't Lee and Halliday, but they'll win 26 between them
The 'x' factor is Bergeson and Tillman, if they do their jobs, I see Baltimore winning 79.

Play ball.
Back tommorow with a game selection or two.

[jds07v]

I also look for Arietta to get some W's for this team. They played good ball post All-Star break. Have the bats to keep up in Al East

[stevenash]

3/31 plays

Braves -1.5 runs +115 over Washington.
1*

Nats will be good in 2014, so will KC, not this year.
Braves get to bat in the 9th, on the road.
Braves have too much lumber, will crush Hernandez.

Tigers +135 over NYY
1*

Look for Verlander to shut down mighty NYY lineup.
Tigers touch CC for 4
4-2 Tigers

[stevenash]

adding St. Louis -1.5 runs +120 1*

Recapping
Braves hit for +1.15
Tigers pending

1-0 +1.15
one game pending