Week 4 XFL best bets: A number we like on each game

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Our experts -- ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian and Anita Marks, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network -- are here to give their best bets for XFL's Week 4 slate.


Records

Marks 6-3 (3-2 last week)
Bearman 3-1 (2-0)
Youmans 2-1 (1-0)
Kezirian 1-0 (1-0)


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Saturday's games


Los Angeles Wildcats (-7, 40) at New York Guardians

Bearman: Last weekend's Guardians-BattleHawks game saw 38 points scored, and it was the highest-scoring Guardians contest this season. It also featured the XFL's first kick return for a score as well as a blocked punt into the red zone -- 14 gifted points, and it still didn't go over.
New York is averaging a league-worst 10.7 points per game. And since scoring two touchdowns in the first 17 minutes of the season, it has been held to one offensive TD. The offense has yet to eclipse 310 total yards (and is just 4-of-31 on third downs), but the defense has allowed only three TDs.


Los Angeles exploded for a league-high 39 points last weekend and is second in the XFL at 24.7 PPG, but the Wildcats will be missing wide receiver Nelson Spruce (knee). Quarterback Josh Johnson will have to find someone to replace the 20 catches and 256 yards Spruce produced over the first three weeks. So far, XFL teams making cross-country trips are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) and averaging 12.3 PPG.


I said last week that I'm taking the under on any Guardians game in the 40s. We are still there.


Pick: Under 40


Marks: Still feeling the dysfunction within the Guardians organization. Quarterback Matt McGloin is expected back under center for Kevin Gilbride, but a leopard doesn't change his spots, and this offense isn't going to change overnight. New York has put up only nine total points over the past two games and can't buy a third-down conversion.


Meanwhile, the Wildcats head to the Big Apple coming off a huge 39-9 upset against DC. At quarterback, Johnson finally looks healthy from his thigh issue, tossing three touchdown passes in Week 3.


And how about their defense? The L.A. Wildcats really should be called the L.A. Ballhawks, considering their D leads the XFL with seven interceptions. They are a dangerous team right now. But they will be without the league's best receiver in Spruce due to a knee injury, and the Wildcats are traveling across the country. I'm rolling with the under more than a side.


Pick: Under 40



Seattle Dragons at St. Louis BattleHawks (-12, 38.5)

Youmans: My preseason power rankings had Seattle, New York and St. Louis in the league's bottom three. I was right about two of those teams but wrong about the BattleHawks, who are 2-1 straight up (SU) and 3-0 ATS. Jordan Ta'amu is not the quarterback I expected to see starting for St. Louis in Week 1, but he has been impressive. He is clearly better than Seattle's Brandon Silvers, who needs to elevate his play this week if the Dragons are going to cover a number that makes the BattleHawks the biggest favorites of the XFL season to this point.


The line looks inflated considering St. Louis is scoring only 22.7 PPG. Seattle has been competitive, and its offense is showing signs of improvement.


Pick: Seattle +12


Bearman: All but one game involving these two teams has gone under the total, and the one that hit the over involved Houston, the XFL's highest-scoring team. Seattle hasn't gone over the 20-point barrier this season, and just like the Guardians, the Dragons have yet to eclipse 310 total yards of offense in any game. In a league that has been pass-happy the first three weeks, the Dragons and BattleHawks rank No. 1 and No. 3 in rush attempts per game (26 and 41, respectively). St. Louis also leads the league in rushing yards and averages 16 more plays than its opponent.


Should the teams find the end zone, they are only a combined 3-of-16 on conversions. Both teams are run-first and ball-control-oriented, and unless we see some change in styles or some fluky defensive touchdowns, I would count on a 20-10 type game. Take the under.


Pick: Under 38.5


Marks: St. Louis is at the top of the XFL East -- and for good reason. Coach Jonathan Hayes is checking all the boxes: a great rushing attack with Matt Jones and Christine Michael that is averaging over 155 yards per game; a quarterback in Ta'amu who is sporting a 76% completion rate; the best home-field advantage in the XFL; and a defense that has eight sacks and is allowing only 15 points per game.


Meanwhile, in a league that requires a good gunslinger to win games, Seattle has one of the worst in Silvers. Silvers has been a turnover machine and is sporting a paltry 54% completion rate. Unless Warren Moon comes out of retirement, give me the BattleHawks laying 11.5. It's a large number, but considering the Dragons are on the road for the second consecutive weekend and have to play in a dome with rabid BattleHawks fans, I'm cool with it.


Picks: BattleHawks -11.5 and small play on over 38 (line shifted at time of pick)
Sunday's games


Houston Roughnecks (-1, 50) at Dallas Renegades

Youmans: So the Indianapolis Colts aren't convinced Jacoby Brissett is fit to be their starting quarterback in 2020, and coach Frank Reich is kicking the bald tires on Philip Rivers. Maybe the Colts should have kept PJ Walker, who was an undrafted free agent in 2017 and spent most of two seasons on their practice squad.


Walker will be back in the NFL soon, but for now he is the favorite to be XFL MVP and is being called the Patrick Mahomes of this new league. In Houston's three wins, Walker has thrown 10 touchdown passes with one interception. Roughnecks wide receiver Cam Phillips was named the league's Star of the Week for each of the past two weeks after totaling 16 receptions for 257 yards and six touchdowns. Houston (3-0) is the best team in the league and the most exciting to watch due to coach June Jones' offense.


Dallas coach Bob Stoops has been more conservative, and while QB Landry Jones is putting up good numbers, he isn't a dual-threat playmaker like Walker. I'm not giving the Renegades a full three points for home-field advantage and rate Houston as 4.5 points better on a neutral field, so I'll ride the Roughnecks and bet on the league's top offense.


Pick: Houston -1


Kezirian: I see Houston as the XFL's best team, largely because of Walker. He is the MVP front-runner and leads the league in passing yards. In all three Houston games, the over has cashed. Meanwhile, Dallas has scored at least 24 points in both games with Landry Jones, who missed the team's first game with injury. This has the makings of a high-scoring affair.


Pick: Over 50


Marks: If there is one game you want to watch this week, this is it!


Walker is crushing it in June Jones' run-and-and shoot offense, and I don't see a defense slowing him down any time soon. Walker comes into Dallas with 10 touchdowns, almost 750 passing yards and a 63% completion rate. Eleven red zone trips have resulted in nine touchdowns, and the Roughnecks' offense is averaging 33 points per game.


Meanwhile, Landry Jones looked better at quarterback for Dallas in Week 3, and he gets a new weapon this week in WR/QB Armanti Edwards, who could be used as a dual QB threat. I love the over in this game, and it should be a fun one.


Pick: Over 50



DC Defenders (-2.5, 44.5) at Tampa Bay Vipers

Marks: I could not have been more wrong about DC last weekend. Defenders quarterback Cardale Jones looked like he was auditioning for a role in "The Replacements" while in Tinseltown, tossing four interceptions and not a single touchdown.


I'm not sure what happened last weekend, but Defenders coach Pep Hamilton needs to figure it out fast, because he has to take his squad back on the road again to Tampa, Florida, and face a Vipers team whose offense looked better in Week 3. Vipers coach Marc Trestman relinquished playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Jaime Elizondo, and it made all the difference. Quarterback Aaron Murray is expected back under center, but tight end Nick Truesdell is likely out.


I'm still a hot mess from DC losing 39-9 to L.A. last weekend, so I'm staying away from a side and playing the under on Sunday.


Pick: Under 44.5