1. #1
    Justin7
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    AFL rules and handicapping

    Rule differences:
    1. Field is smaller - only 50 yards long.
    2. Field Goal post is about half as wide - 9 feet.
    3. Only 8 players per side on the field.
    4. Rosters only allow 20 active players
    5. On defense, pass rush is restricted. Only 3 lineman and 1 (Mike) linebacker can rush until either the QB scrambles, or he pump-fakes. No stunts are allowed.
    6. The Jack linebacker cannot rush, and cannot drop into deep pass coverage. He has to stand near the line of scrimmage until "released" by the QB. If there are no short routs and he doesn't get a pass block, he is dead weight. In essence, it is 8 on 7.
    7. The defense has 3 DBs that can do any type of coverage. The offense has 3 WRs that are unrestricted.
    8. The offense is allowed to have 1 player in forward motion. This is usually a fast WR sprinting towards the line of scrimmage (making it tougher to cover him).
    9. The lock does not stop except for scores, except in the last 60 seconds of each half. In the last 60 seconds, the clock also stops on incomplete passes and out-of-bounds.
    10. There is no punting. FGs are usually returnable.
    11. There is a "rebound net" - kickoffs and FGs that don't go between the upright bounce into play, and are live. Either team can recover them.

    A typical game total is about 98. Home field advantage is worth about 1. Scoring is typically 22% in Q1 and Q3, 28% in Q2 and Q4. Most games see 1 or more onsides kicks (and I've seen a game with 8 onsides kicks).

    The "7" is worth about 15 cents - always buy onto and through it for 10 cents.

    The "3" is worth much less than in NFL/NCAAF (due to the increased difficulty of kicking FGs).

  2. #2
    whatsgood5
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    Thanks for the post Justin, very informative.

  3. #3
    VBOMBER
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    Do teams go for 2 a lot after a TD? It seems like they should as I imagine with all of the advantageous rules for offensive sets it would net more points over time than just kicking the extra point, especially since the fg posts are only half as wide, which must mean more misses on extra point kicks. Also, is it standard practice in this league to go for 2 to win instead of tie the game if you score at or near the end of regulation?

    Also, do teams drop kick for 2 after a TD, or drop kick for a 4 point (instead of a 3 point) fg often/ever?

    Was just reading the rules at cbssportsline and noticed that.
    Points Awarded:

    Justin7 gave VBOMBER 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  4. #4
    Justin7
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    2-point conversion don't typically happen until there are just a few possessions left for each team - maybe last half of 4th quarter. Teams occasionally go for the win near the very end.

    I think there has been only 1 4-pt FG in 20 years of Arena.

  5. #5
    nairaz
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    Thanks for the post man

  6. #6
    DeluxeLiner
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    Are there a significant number of bets from the public or are bets dominated by professional bettors?

  7. #7
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner View Post
    Are there a significant number of bets from the public or are bets dominated by professional bettors?
    Most of the movement is from pros.

  8. #8
    tbill11
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    What's your handicapping strategy Justin? Is this like the WNBA where you can follow a team's inconsistencies and Las Vegas opening steam to the bank?

  9. #9
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbill11 View Post
    What's your handicapping strategy Justin? Is this like the WNBA where you can follow a team's inconsistencies and Las Vegas opening steam to the bank?
    Create an information monopoly, manipulate the market occasionally to keep books honest, and fire away.

  10. #10
    IrishTim
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    Don't know how I missed this forum. Thanks for throwing us without AFL databases a bone. Will be watching the other thread closely for your plays.

  11. #11
    bluefish
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    when does this start?

  12. #12
    bluefish
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    sometime soon I would guess

  13. #13
    bluefish
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    is there money to be made here?

  14. #14
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluefish View Post
    is there money to be made here?
    I've made more from Arena than any other sport.

  15. #15
    Terrapin Station
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    Great information Justin, thanks for taking the time to post all that. Might try my hand at Arena this year.

  16. #16
    Jasonal_98
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    I am definitely interested in tailing this thread and seeing how it does. Best of luck, Justin.


  17. #17
    durito
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    What type of limits are
    there on derivative bets?

  18. #18
    Terrapin Station
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    Will AFL games be offered in the SBR book?

  19. #19
    IrishTim
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    What type of limits are
    there on derivative bets?
    I've seen the term derivative used a few times but never bothered to ask what it means? I know what derivatives mean in the financial services industry with options, futures, etc. but how does it apply to sports?

  20. #20
    Shortstop
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    I'm looking forward to the Arena League returning this Spring!

  21. #21
    Shortstop
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    I've only wagered on the Arena League probably 6 or 7 times in the past years simply for the action.

    Every time, I took the Over having absolutely no clue about the teams, players, injuries, home-field, etc.

    The Over hit easily each game, I mean it wasn't even close.

    Do the Overs hit much more frequently than the Unders, or was this simply luck?

  22. #22
    Justin7
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    Just luck if you're betting blindly. It's about 50/50..

  23. #23
    RogueScholar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    I've seen the term derivative used a few times but never bothered to ask what it means? I know what derivatives mean in the financial services industry with options, futures, etc. but how does it apply to sports?
    To my knowledge, derivatives are 1st Half and 1/2/3/4 Quarter bets on a game, so called because their opening value is usually "derived" from the game spread and total. I don't know if Halftime lines fall into the same grouping.

  24. #24
    Godzilla Man
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    these are hard rules to keep up with

  25. #25
    ClimbSomeRocks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Godzilla Man View Post
    these are hard rules to keep up with

    agreed. When does the season start?

  26. #26
    blanda
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    Is it ever coming back?

  27. #27
    Justin7
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    April 2, 2010.

  28. #28
    dcb11
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    I actually thought the league CLOSED up....LOL but found out it starts back up April 2,2010 and here is the quote from the AFL online news and the link is here if you need it http://www.arenafootballmedia.com/in...021514092NWB9F


    Welcome to the official online newsroom for media materials and resources of the Arena Football League.

    On Feb. 17, AFL officially announced that it is back in the game. Commissioner Jerry Kurz, team owners and coaches discussed during a national teleconference the rebirth of the arena football game. Details are provided in this news release or listen to the taped teleconference. B-roll from the 2008 AFL season is also available for download.

    The Arena Football League’s season kicks off the weekend of April 2-4. The 15 teams will play a 16-game schedule with the Arena Bowl scheduled for the third weekend in August.

    The online newsroom provides media resources for the AFL as well as resources and print-quality logos for individual teams.
    Since it looks like the league is back I will have to back a team and the team is.......

    Cleveland Gladiators

    Here is a breakdown of the divisions

    2010 AFL teams

    American Conference

    South
    Alabama Vipers
    Jacksonville Sharks
    Orlando Predators
    Tampa Bay Storm

    Southwest
    Bossier-Shreveport Battle Wings
    Dallas Vigilantes
    Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz
    Tulsa Talons

    National Conference

    Midwest
    Chicago Rush
    Cleveland Gladiators
    Iowa Barnstormers
    Milwaukee Iron

    West
    Arizona Rattlers
    Spokane Shock
    Utah Blaze

    Rem some of these teams were from AFL 2.

  29. #29
    NSN21
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    Just stumbled onto this thread. I know very little about AFL, but Justin7's original post is very informative. I was especially curious about the decrease in value of the 3, and key numbers in general. Since the 3 is worth less, does anybody know or have a list of the various key numbers and their associated percentages pertaining to AFL games?

  30. #30
    ghuxe078emv
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    you made some good points there. i did a search on the topic and found most people will agree with your idea.

  31. #31
    mikey470
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    whats up fellas!!
    Last edited by mikey470; 10-21-11 at 11:28 AM.

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