On one hand it shouldn't work because that would be too easy. I assume that trends are simply calculated into the line. On the other hand, some trends look really strong and there are no mixed signals, so how could you lose money following them? Let's use NBA for example. Bucks are 17-3 ATS after coming off a loss. Would you have bet against Bucks yesterday knowing that? They won by 10. Maybe the coach gives them a good pep talk after a loss or something. There must be some reason for that because winning 17/20 coinflips seems unlikely.
Let's examine some trends coming up today:
Game 1:
The Rockets are 22-43-5 OU (-5.66 ppg) since Jan 03, 2018 on the road
The Rockets are 1-10-1 OU (-10.33 ppg) since Mar 08, 2019 as a favorite
Houston Rockets vs Western (Under) 27-20-1
Sacramento Kings as Home (Under) 22-15-1
Game 2:
The Nuggets are 4-18 OU (-9.30 ppg) since Feb 08, 2019
The Nuggets are 5-14 OU (-5.03 ppg) since Jan 08, 2019 on the road
Denver Nuggets vs Western (Under) 28-18-0
The Warriors are 4-13-1 OU (-3.33 ppg) since Feb 23, 2019
The Warriors are 1-7 OU (-3.44 ppg) since Feb 23, 2019 as a home favorite
Knowing that, will anyone here bet on the overs? Good luck, but I'll have a punt on the unders. Is there any value though? I have no idea, I've never done trend betting. But surely there must be at least 1% edge, the plays are so obvious.