This season’s NASCAR Sprint Cup series all comes down to two drivers battling it out in one final race for the title with this week’s running of the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. All the action is set to get underway at 11 a.m. (PT) and the race will be broadcast nationally on ESPN. 

Brad Keselowski comes in as the current point leader and can secure his first Sprint Cup title by finishing better than 15th in this Sunday’s race, but five-time champion Jimmie Johnson is still lurking in the wings, 20 points off the lead. It will be a day-long duel to the finish between these two, but there are a number of other drivers that will also have a say in the final outcome. 

The following is a look at a few of the favorites to watch this Sunday afternoon along with our top value pick according to their current odds to win as provided by Sportsbook. 


Brad KeselowskiJimmie Johnson’s scenario for Sunday’s race is fairly simple: win and hope for the best when it comes to his only competition for this season’s Sprint Cup title. NASCAR odds makers like his chances, making the No.48 car the odds-on-favorite at +400 to take the checkered flag at Homestead. This would have been a much tighter competition if Johnson had avoided a disastrous 32nd finish last week in Phoenix after an extended stay in the pits. He now has to pin his title hopes on a track where he has never won before; he did finish fifth in 2009 and second in 2010, but his overall finishing position here is just 13.5.

Denny Hamlin is one of three second-favorites at +800 to steal the show this Sunday. The No.11 car finished second in last week’s race, but its title hopes had already crashed and burned with finishes outside the top 10 in the three previous point races. None the less, Hamlin is always a threat to win and has some level of success at this track. He finished third in this race in 2006 and 2007 and took the checkered flag here in 2009. His overall finishing position at Homestead in seven career races is 10.9.

Another second favorite to win on Sunday at +800 is Matt Kenseth. He started this season with a win at Daytona and would love nothing more than to end it with a win in Miami. While the No.17 car has suffered through a long dry spell after that initial victory, it did post a pair of wins at Talladega and Kansas during this season’s Chase. Kenseth has also raced well at Homestead with victory here in 2007 and a fourth-place finish in last year’s race. Overall, he has three top-five finishes at this track in his last seven races here.

The final driver listed at +800 to win this week is Kasey Kahne. He was able to keep his title hopes alive for a good part of the 10-race Chase, but faded from contention with a 25th-place finish at Texas. The No.5 car has posted two wins this season but has not made its way to victory lane since taking the checkered flag at New Hampshire in mid-July. Kahne has never won at Homestead but he does have four top-10 finishes in his seven races here.

Top Value Pick

The man in the driver’s seat for this season’s title has been opened at +1000 to win Sunday’s race even though Brad Keselowski only needs to finish 15th or better to secure his first career Sprint Cup. Something tells you that the No.2 car is not going to play it safe this week as often times that is a sure way to race your way to a poor finish. That is why we are going with Keselowski as our value pick on Sunday to erase any title doubts by actually winning this race. The five-year Sprint series veteran has limited experience at this track and has never finished better than 13th in four previous races here. However, that has been the case all season long at most of the tracks, and he has still managed to win five previous times this season.