Super Bowl Betting Odds Swings from Preseason to NFL Week 7

NFL Prop Bets

Nearing the halfway point of the season, Sportsbook Review takes a thorough look at the Super Bowl 50 market adjustments made by online sportsbooks, including with where the betting odds opened before the start of the year, where the odds settled, and where the odds have since landed.

Early Super Bowl 50 Odds
At the conclusion of Super Bowl 49, the Seattle Seahawks were widely trading across sportsbook platforms anywhere from +450 to +500 odds.

Nipping at their heels were the New England Patriots (+600), the reigning Super Bowl champions followed by MVP Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers (+700).

Rounding out the triple-digit favorites were the Denver Broncos at +800 NFL odds. That order was largely adhered to by most sportsbooks, save instances where the Patriots and Packers were matched on identical odds, thereby emerging co-second favorites.

Super Bowl 50 Odds Start To Move
As is common, it didn’t take long for a reshuffle to occur on the Super Bowl 50 odds board. For various reasons, perceptible line movement occurred as early bettors began to weigh in. Arguably, the most significant movement involved the New England Patriots following the deflate-gate scandal taking a life of its own.

It started a slow decline of the Patriots at some sportsbooks. For instance, the Patriots slipped down to third overall favorites at +800 with online sportsbook Bet365 while the Packers ascended into second place and +650 NFL odds.

At the height of the scandal and the ensuing Tom Brady four-game suspension, the Patriots slipped down further at some sportsbooks. For instance, Bovada was offering the Patriots at +850, well behind top favorites Seahawks and Packers. In an interesting twist, the Colts leapfrogged into third place, slightly ahead of the Patriots in Super Bowl 50 markets. A move that was mirrored in AFC Conference betting markets too with the Colts matched as the top favorites to win the Championship game at +375 and the Patriots matched at +400 NFL odds.

Of course, when Tom Brady’s suspension was vacated ahead of week 1 NFL betting, the early status quo was restored and the Patriots emerged either co-second favorites with the Packers, slightly ahead of the Packers or slightly behind the Packers.

Super Bowl 50 Market as of Now
Six weeks into the NFL 2015-2016 season and we’ve witnessed another reshuffle on the Super Bowl Odds board. Unlike early market moves that are down to pure perception and conjecture, these moves are all about the results on the season.

Negative Movers and Shakers

One of the biggest surprises in the early goings must be the fall of the Seattle Seahawks from the top of the Super Bowl 50 market to mere contenders in the quadruple range. Indeed, theirs is one of the biggest increases in price from +450 to a whopping +2000 NFL odds at Bovada, underscored by their disappointing 2-4 SU start through the first six weeks.

Indianapolis Colts have also come crashing back down to earth after a brief stint atop the AFC odds board. Behind a lacklustre 3-3 SU start to the season that includes only wins against questionable divisional opponents, they’re set to more realistic NFL odds ranging between 2000-2500. The best price is on offer at Bovada, where they are priced at the top of the range.

Some teams have fallen completely out of the ranks of competitors, such as the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions. Early markets had the pair installed competitively at +2200 and +3300 respectively. With just one win in six rounds though and their season’s practically a write off they are matched as quintessential longshots with the highest price tags trading at 5Dimes.

The Dallas Cowboys are also down from an early +1800 price tag to +4250 at sportsbook Heritage Sports, but their fall has everything to do with injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and a season that looks to be headed south. The Steelers also suffered a setback with Big Ben’s injury, but seeing as he’s out for a much shorter stretch and that the team is still finding ways to win, their NFL odds haven’t moved overly. They are down from an early + 1800 to +2500 or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook.

Positive Movers and Shakers
The New England Patriots burst out of the gates with a verve and swagger to assume top spot in Super Bowl betting markets. Green Bay Packers, meanwhile, have done well to keep up and live up to early expectations, which sees them nipping at Tom Brady and the Patriots’’ heels. As you can see, this pair leads the Super Bowl betting markets unanimously across the board.

Where some discrepancy creeps in is for third overall favorites. Some sportsbooks prefer Cincinnati Bengals in the position (5Dimes) while others have the Denver Broncos as their third favorites. Another notable mover: Arizona Cardinals, who usurp the Seahawks in pecking order at most sports books. Cardinals are off to a solid start behind a 4-2 record in the NFC West.


Sportsbook Review will continue to cover the NFL market movement providing weekly NFL betting digests as well as sportswriters and handicappers NFL Picks.

 
 

 


 

Posters' Poll Pts Rating
#1 5Dimes 675
#2 Heritage 665
#3 Bookmaker 380
#4 Pinnacle 310
#5 BetOnline 165
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