Super Bowl 51 Coin Flip Prop: Tails an Unprecedented +385
Bettors might think that betting on the coin toss for the Super Bowl is a 50/50 proposition. And for just about every variation of that, it is. However, there is one version that relies on human judgment or bias and subject to past trends: whether the actual player calling the toss picks heads or tails.
Just like much of society, many NFL head coaches are a superstitious bunch. Count New England's Bill Belichick among them. You see, Belichick tells his guys to call heads -- and as the visiting team in Sunday's Super Bowl LI against the Atlanta Falcons, the Patriots will call the coin toss.
Bookmaker.eu (SBR rating A+) opened a coin toss prop on what the Patriots player would call: heads or tails. The prices were the same -103 for each just like they are the same for what it lands on, whether the coin toss winner also wins the game, etc.
Some wise bettors/Patriots fans who were aware of the team's past coin-calling tendencies jumped all over heads. For at least the past two seasons, New England has picked heads every time. So odds for the prop were reopened after a flurry of action to heads at -140, tails at +120 and then were taken off the board for two days. They were reposted Sunday and now heads is a huge -600 favorite with tails at +385.
“We’re trying to get some money back by putting a value price on tails," Bookmaker spokesman Scott Cooley said. "We really wish a member of the media covering the Super Bowl would ask Bill Belichick what he’s going to call so we can take this one off the board, or at least create a little more intrigue.”
One thing to keep in mind: The Patriots almost always defer when they win the toss, but they didn't in the past two AFC Championship Games for whatever reason. Pittsburgh lost the toss in this year's game (calling tails) and the Patriots took the ball. They would get a 31-yard field goal. Last season in Denver, New England called heads, won, took possession and ran five plays before punting. The Broncos answered with an 11-play, 83-yard TD drive on their first possession and of course won the game.