NFL Betting: Regular Season Wins Handicapping

The 2014-15 NFL schedule has officially been released and NFL futures odds on the Super Bowl as well as on each conference are already available on the SBR Super Bowl Prop Betting Directory with those dynamic odds updating instantly. Soon, major sportsbooks such as Pinnacle Sports, 5Dimes and Bovada will be posting NFL regular season win totals, and we are here to give you a head start with our win projections for every single NFL team!

Editor's note: References to records against the spread (ATS) last season are based on the closing odds at Pinnacle Sports (SBR rating A+).

Once NFL team totals are released, this betting guide can be used for a quick comparison to find the best possible odds value, whether you agree or disagree with the positions outlined:

2014 Predicted NFL Win Totals

Seattle Seahawks - 12 wins: The current market price on the defending champion Seattle Seahawks is +600 ($100 wager pays $600). While it may be hard to repeat as champions, the Seattle defense is still the best in the game and as an NFL handicapper factoring in the running of Marshawn Lynch and efficiency of Russell Wilson, Seattle should again have the best record in the NFC and seems a nice bet to win the Super Bowl again at +600 ($100 pays $600) at Bovada .

New England Patriots - 12 wins: The signing of Darrelle Revis to help the defense makes the Patriots a popular choice to win the AFC, and they are even worth a pop at +900 to win the Super Bowl at Ladbrokes if that is thinking you subscribe to. They may not win it if matched up with Seattle, but the price is right to hedge.

Denver Broncos - 11 wins: The current market price on the Denver Broncos to repeat is an average +600 ($100 pays $600). Super Bowl XLVIII showed that defense wins championships, and while the Broncos have one of the best offenses of all-time, Seattle laid the blueprint on how to defend them. The AFC Championship Game might be Week 9 at New England, as the winner of that game could earn home field in the potential rematch in January.

San Francisco 49ers - 11 wins: The 49ers are priced at an average +650 ($100 pays $650) to win Super Bowl XLIX. Last season the 49ers had the second most wins in the NFC with 12 but had to settle for the wild card thanks to being in the same division as Seattle. This season we have San Francisco pegged for 11 wins, tied for the second most in the NFC. Unfortunately, the NFL did not re-align its divisions!

Green Bay Packers - 11 wins: If the Packers have a healthy Aaron Rodgers all season this year and if Julius Peppers improves the pass rush as expected, not just because of his own abilities but also by preventing offensive lines from double-teaming Clay Matthews, then the Packers could conceivably challenge the Seahawks and 49ers for NFC supremacy.

New Orleans Saints - 11 wins: The Saints went 11-5 in 2013 and we expect duplication this year, this time resulting in an NFC South title though with Carolina taking a step back. The defense improved by leaps and bounds under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and now adds safety Jairus Byrd, while the New Orleans offense is never a concern.

Indianapolis Colts - 10 wins: We have the Colts pegged for 10 wins after going 11-5 last year and 10-5-1 ATS, but they could potentially win more game playing in the weak AFC South if Trent Richardson rebounds from his atrocious season to give them a semblance of a running game.

Cincinnati Bengals - 9 wins: We have both the Bengals and the Ravens with nine wins in the AFC North, and if we had to choose, we would give the nod to Baltimore to win the division. Yes the Bengals won 11 games last year while going 10-5-1 ATS, but Andy Dalton was not as good as his numbers and the team now has two new coordinators.

Philadelphia Eagles - 9 wins: The Eagles will probably win just enough games to win the NFC East again, but with Nick Foles unlikely to match his unbelievable season last year and the defense still having a good amount of holes, expect some regression and for Philadelphia to fall short of the 10-win mark.

San Diego Chargers - 9 wins: Yes the Chargers have a tough schedule, but they could still match their nine wins from last season provided Philip Rivers again plays like the elite quarterback that he was his first few years in the league, and that then disappeared before re-emerging for new coach Mike McCoy last season.

Baltimore Ravens - 9 wins: The Ravens were a disappointment last year to 8-8 straight up and 7-9 ATS, but the young defense improved and could get better with another year of experience and such is the state of the AFC North this season that nine wins can win the division.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 8 wins: The Steelers slipped to 8-8 last year and we just do not see any rejuvenation this season the way the play of their veterans slipped so dramatically. Time waits for no one and if Pittsburgh wants to get back on the playoffs, the younger players will need to step up and carry the load.

Houston Texans - 8 wins: The Texans were dreadful last year at 2-14 overall and 4-12 ATS, losing their last 14 games after a 2-0 start! But if they use their first overall draft pick wisely, there is talent here on both sides of the ball to at least get back to the .500 mark in a pretty weak division.

Detroit Lions - 8 wins: The Lions seemed playoff bound before another late season collapse last year resulted in a 7-9 season (6-10 ATS) and the firing of Jim Schwartz. Now the Lions made a nice addition to the offense in Golden Tate as a second receiver, but the defense is still awful pending how Detroit does in the draft.

New York Giants - 8 wins: Eli Manning had the worst season of his career last year and the result was a 7-9 record. The defense did get better as the year went on though and the Giants have made some nice signings this off-season, so as long as Eli does not duplicate last year, some improvement is likely.

Chicago Bears - 8 wins: The Bears have a well balanced offense that can score on anyone, but the defense is a severe liability that actually got worse as the year went on last year, which is hard to believe considering how bad it was to begin with. Chicago went 8-8 and poor 4-11-1 ATS, and look for more of the same with no defensive shake-up.

Carolina Panthers - 8 wins: The Panthers surprised many by going 12-4 and 9-6-1 ATS last season, but they did benefit from a fairly easy schedule. Now the starting defensive front seven is as good as any in the league, but it lacks depth and the secondary is shaky. Plus, the offense lost all of its wide receivers to free agency.

Atlanta Falcons - 7 wins: The Falcons went from the NFC Championship Game two years ago to a 4-12 record last season. However, the danger signs on defense were there even during the playoff run as the Falcons have no pass rush, something that needs addressing in the draft. There are also too many other holes on defense to expect a .500 record.

Kansas City Chiefs - 7 wins: We get that this is a controversial call after the Chiefs went 11-5 in their first season under Andy Reid (9-7 ATS), but the schedule is tougher this season and the offense may take a step back with some offensive line issues that may or may not be addressed in the draft.

Dallas Cowboys - 7 wins: The Cowboys went 8-8 last season and 9-7 ATS, but they could not do anything to help themselves before the draft because of salary cap restraints. This could be the year that Dallas finishes with a losing record, causing some heads to roll next season.

Arizona Cardinals - 7 wins: Arizona failed to make the playoffs last season with a 10-6 record while tying their division-mates from Seattle and San Francisco for the best ATS record in the NFL at 11-5. However, we feel they overachieved last year and we just do not trust Carson Palmer or the running game to match that mark in a brutal division.

Washington Redskins - 7 wins: The Redskins were awful while going 3-13 last year and they just quit on lame-duck coach Mike Shanahan. Now, new coach Jay Gruden will keep the West Coast offense which means keeping many of Shanahan's principles, so whether or not Robert Griffin III finally picks it up or not is the key to improvement.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7 wins: The Buccaneers had too much talent to have a 4-12 record last season (6-10 ATS), at least at every position besides quarterback. Enter new coach Lovie Smith, but as long as the likes of Josh McCown and Mike Glennon are battling for the quarterback job, the Bucs' improvement will only be to mediocrity.

St. Louis Rams - 7 wins: If the Rams played in any other division in football, they would be legitimate playoff contenders. Unfortunately, a great defense takes them only so far in an NFC West where the other three teams are just as good defensively, and the jury is still out on Sam Bradford at quarterback.

Minnesota Vikings - 7 wins: The Vikings still have Adrian Peterson at running back and new coach Mike Zimmer is a defensive specialist, so if the defense improves as expected, this team can spring some upsets here and there. Unfortunately the uncertainty at quarterback should prevent further improvement.

Buffalo Bills - 6 wins: The Bills went 6-10 straight up and 8-8 ATS last season and we do not see them improving that win mark unless E.J. Manual takes a major step forward in his second season in the league at quarterback and C.J. Spiller can stay healthy for an entire year.

New York Jets - 6 wins: For all the criticism that Rex Ryan takes, we actually think he did a great job last year getting the overachieving Jets to finish 8-8 while going a stellar 9-6-1 ATS. However, look for tougher sledding this year as Michael Vick is not the answer and Eric Decker is unproven as a go-to receiver.

Oakland Raiders - 6 wins: The Raiders may be a little better than the team that went 4-12 last season after a slew of free agent signings and the trade for Matt Schaub, but most of the new acquisitions are veterans that cannot afford to slip with age. As long as Schaub is not the interception machine he was last year, Oakland could improve.

Miami Dolphins - 5 wins: Like the Jets, the Dolphins were not as good as their 8-8 record last season while going 9-7 ATS and now they have a fairly tough schedule. Miami's easiest matchups appear to be on the road as its non-division home schedule includes Green Bay, San Diego and Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns - 5 wins: Josh Gordon has a chance to be the best receiver in football, and just imagine how good he would be if he actually had a good quarterback throwing him the ball! It may very well be that the starting quarterback this year will be Cleveland's first round selection in the draft, so there should be growing pains.

Tennessee Titans - 5 wins: The Titans may have overachieved at 7-9 last year, but management did not see it that way as it gave former Coach Mike Munchak the heave-ho. Now, the rebuilding process starts all over again and quarterback Jake Locker must show improvement to prevent a total free-fall.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 5 wins: The Jaguars somehow won four games last season when it looked like there was a chance they could go winless in the middle of the season. Maybe they should have, as they cost themselves a better draft position by winning so much.

 
 

 


 

Posters' Poll Pts Rating
#1 5Dimes 675
#2 Heritage 665
#3 Bookmaker 380
#4 Pinnacle 310
#5 BetOnline 165
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