College Football Futures Betting: Week 10 Market Analysis

Sportsbook Review analyzes recent college football futures betting market movement approaching week 10 of the college football regular season.

Futures lines commonly move the most as the season unfolds and action is received from bettors. Most of the movement occurs after key wins or losses, which bettors typically react to causing more movement than what is seen during the pre-season.

The most significant change over the last few weeks has taken place in the top five of the NCAAF futures odds board, as shown below with table one (which shows the odds from online sportsbook Bet365).

A summary of online sportsbooks market movement is attached below showing changes recorded from week eight to week nine of college football.

Table 1: Comparing NCAAF Futures from Week 8 to Week 9

TEAM

CONF.

Overall Record

WEEK 8

WEEK 9

WEEK 10

Ohio State

Big Ten –East

8-0

+250

+250

+250

Baylor

Big 12

7-0

+600

+650

+800

Alabama

SEC – West

7-0

+600

+600

+550

LSU

SEC – West

7-0

+800

+800

+900

Michigan State

Big Ten –East

8-0

+1000

+1200

+1400

Utah

Pac 12 – South

7-1

+1200

+8000

+10000

Clemson

ACC

8-0

+1400

+1200

+800

TCU

Big 12

8-0

+1800

+1400

+1000

Stanford

Pac 12 – North

7-1

+1800

+1000

+1200

Florida State

ACC

7-1

+2000

+6600

+6600

Notre Dame

FBS

7-1

+2500

+2200

+2800

Iowa

Big Ten – West

8-0

+2500

+2500

+3300

Oklahoma State

Big 12

8-0

+2800

+2200

+2500

Texas A&M

SEC – West

6-2

+4000

+10000

  •  

Michigan

Big Ten – East

6-2

+5000

+5000

+5000

Florida

SEC – East

7-1

+5000

+5000

+5000

Oklahoma

Big 12

7-1

+6000

+4000

+2500

Mississippi

SEC – West

7-2

+6600

+8000

+10000

Uni. of Georgia

Sun Belt

6-2

+10000

+10000

  •  
At the close of week 8, the top five priced teams were: Ohio State (+250 odds), Alabama (+600 odds), Baylor (+650 odds), LSU (+800 odds) and Stanford (+1000) odds.

At the close of week 9, however, there have been several noteworthy changes on that shortlist. It’s now comprised of Ohio State, Alabama, Baylor, Clemson and LSU –all in the triple-digit range. TCU also close the gap at +1000 to nip at the heels of the Top 5.

This order of favorites isn’t mirrored at all sportsbooks identically. There appears to be consensus where Ohio State and Alabama are concerned as the top two favorites, but the order of the remaining three alternates from sportsbook to sportsbook, with some favoring Clemson ahead of Baylor or a combination of Clemson and LSU ahead of Baylor. (See Table 2).

Table 2: Snap shot of NCAAF Futures Across Sports betting sites

TEAM

CONF.

Overall Record

WEEK 10 NCAAF FUTURES

 

 

 

Heritage

5Dimes

BetOnline

Ohio State

Big Ten –East

8-0

+250

+250

+220

Baylor

Big 12

7-0

+1000

+1000

+750

Alabama

SEC – West

7-0

+600

+550

+500

LSU

SEC – West

7-0

+800

+800

+800

Michigan State

Big Ten –East

8-0

+1500

+1500

+1400

Utah

Pac 12 – South

7-1

+8000

+10000

+8000

Clemson

ACC

8-0

+600

+600

+650

TCU

Big 12

8-0

+1500

+1500

+1400

Stanford

Pac 12 – North

7-1

+1000

+1000

+1000

Florida State

ACC

7-1

+6400

+7000

+10000

Notre Dame

FBS

7-1

+2000

+2000

+1600

Iowa

Big Ten – West

8-0

+3500

+3500

+3300

Oklahoma State

Big 12

8-0

+2600

+2600

+2800

Texas A&M

SEC – West

6-2

+3300

+20000

+30000

Michigan

Big Ten – East

6-2

+5000

+8000

+8000

Florida

SEC – East

7-1

+5000

+5000

+5000

Oklahoma

Big 12

7-1

+2000

+2500

+2500

Mississippi

SEC – West

7-2

  •  

+10000

  •  

Uni. of Georgia

Sun Belt

6-2

+10000

+10000

+2000

Positive Movers & Shakers
Conspicuously, Ohio State continue to lead the charge on the NCAAF Futures board with most leading online sportsbooks recording them at +250 (See Table 2).

Alabama climb up to +550 at bet365 as well as 5Dimes, GTBets and Youwager. The best price on Alabama however is at Heritage, where they are slightly higher at +600 ahead of week 10.

Baylor, Clemson, TCU and LSU’s football odds differ from sportsbook to sportsbook. Clemson are matched on +600, which puts them on par with Alabama at Heritage as the second overall favorites, while they are as high as +650 at BetOnline giving them a clear edge over Baylor at +800 on BetOnline’s NCAAF futures board to move into third overall favorites behind Alabama at +550.

Only Alabama and Clemson’s football odds are shortening unanimously at sports betting shops, in some cases TCU as well. For Baylor, LSU and Michigan State and several others it’s a mixed bag of football odds, shortening at some shops and steadily swelling from week to week in other shops. .
 

Negative Movers & Shakers
As mentioned above, Baylor, LSU and Michigan State move negatively ahead of week 9, albeit just marginally so at bet365. That move isn’t echoed with all sportsbook though (See Table 2).

Others to move negatively include Stanford, Notre Dame and Iowa. Ahead of week 8 college football, Stanford were trading on tenders of +1000 but have since slipped to +1200 at Bet365 and GTBets (See Table 3 to find live, up-to-the-minute college football odds).

Iowa were trading around +2500 ahead of week 8 and 9, but now they are upwards of +3000 at most sportsbooks cited in Table 3 below. Similarly, Notre Dame swell from +2200 to +2800 at bet365 ahead of week 10 (See Table 1). Curiously, though, that move isn’t replicated by other sportsbooks, most of which have them at +2000 or lower.

Table 3: Real-time NCAAF Futures odds

College Football Championship Winner

 
 

 


 

Posters' Poll Pts Rating
#1 5Dimes 675
#2 Heritage 665
#3 Bookmaker 380
#4 Pinnacle 310
#5 BetOnline 165
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