It may not be a title deciding clash when Roma host Lazio this weekend in Serie A, but the Rome derby is NEVER just a “making up the numbers” match. We run down all the soccer odds and betting options.
Both Roma and Lazio are outside bets to trouble the top of the table this season, Roma are 150/1 with the sportsbooks while Lazio are slightly more fancied at 50/1. Still, the Derby della Capitale (aka the Derby of the capital), is the biggest footballing derby in Italy, ahead of both the Derby della Madonnina (Milan derby) and the Derby della Mole (Turin derby), and is a great match for a neutral to watch.
Sixth place Roma will try and get closer to a champions league spot, as they are just seven points behind fourth place Lazio, and it’s worth noting that while both Rome sides are outside soccer betting options to lift the Serie A trophy, Lazio are 9/5 for a top three finish and Roma are 6/1, so there’s plenty to play for.
Roma have won four of the last five meetings between these sides, but Lazio have won the most recent encounter. Lazio are 5/2 to win the derby this time round but Roma are the bookies’ favourites at 11/10, while a draw is at 11/5. I’m not recommending you back a draw though as looking at those last five games (a spell going back to April 2010) the derby has never ended all square.
Passion and enthusiasm doesn’t necessarily mean goals
You might also want to keep the predicted number of goals low, as there has never been more than three goals scored in one match in those five most recent derbies. Each time the winning side has scored two goals and conceded either one goal (three times) or no goals (twice). The bookies are consistent in their favouring of Roma as 2-1 to Roma is at 8/1, 2-0 Roma is at 10/1, while Lazio winning by those scores is at 11/1 and 16/1.
All roads lead to Rome
Roma’s home form reads won seven, drawn three and lost two, while Lazio’s away form reads six wins, four draws and two losses. But remember to forget home advantage, as although this is down as a Roma home game, the two sides share Rome’s the Stadio Olimpico.
Both teams have had quite a patchy run of late with Lazio winning two games and losing three from their last five while Roma have two wins two defeats and one draw. Looking at each teams’ last five, Lazio have scored six goals, but they have conceded ten (and are without a single clean sheet in that run). Roma have scored seven, but four of them were in a 4-1 demolition of Inter back on the 5th of February. In Roma’s last four games they have only managed to score three and never more than one in a game. Check out a very low scoring game, for example Roma winning 1-0 at 7/1 or Lazio doing the same at 10/1, maybe even hedge a bet on a 1-1 draw at 5/1 in the soccer odds.
Wildly different form of late
In their last match Lazio had a 1-0 victory over Fiorentina at Stadio Olimpico in Sunday evening’s clash, where a solitary strike from Miroslav Klose was enough. It may have been a tight victory but it was a huge win for Lazio and keeps them in contention for a Champions league spot next season and a massive boost for their under fire coach Edy Reja, who had recently reversed his decision to resign.
Roma have problems of their own
Not least an awful last match, where they went down 4-1 to Atalanta. If a drubbing like that wasn’t bad enough they are suffering an outbreak of dissent in the ranks. Roma’s 28 year old “star” midfielder Daniele De Rossi, was reportedly dropped ahead of the game in Bergamo for turning up late for a team meeting. He watched his team crumble for a seat in the stands
Roma manager Luis Enrique was keen to show strength regarding the issue, "The squad always comes before individual players and I am sure that what I did was right. If I could go back in time, I would make the same decision. I need everyone to feel responsible, specially the players who are important to this group and this club." He said.
That’s as maybe but the issue is a huge distraction ahead of the derby. Therefore I’m backing a Lazio win, them to be in the driving seat from the off and take both halves at 4/1.
Prediction: Lazio win 2-0