It may not quite be El Classico but the
Madrid derby is still a massive game in Spanish football and with the Spanish
league poised as it is Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid has huge ramifications
for the title.
Supposedly this derby is “such a big deal”
because (initially) Real supporters came from the Spanish middle classes while
the Atlético supporters were more working class. However, the fact that the
years Real dominated La Liga (between 1961 and 1989) only Atlético spoilt their
party (winning Liga titles in 1966, 1970, 1973 and 1977) probably has more to
do with it today. History and class will mean nothing on Wednesday night when
it’s all about the title for Madrid.
Real Madrid may have slipped up at the
weekend only managing a goalless draw with Valencia, (against perceived
knowledge) but don’t forget that was still just the
third time all season that Real Madrid have dropped points at home.
Madrid are now just four points ahead of
Barcelona (who beat Real Zaragoza 4-1 on Saturday) and will be in no mood to
let any more points slip. La Liga Primera is a clear two horse race (again) and
Real Madrid are currently slight favourites, offered up at 4/7 soccer odds by
the books compared to Barcelona at 7/5. Current form, league standing and derby
stakes aside this game surely must go Real Madrid’s way.
Barcelona play Getafe on Tuesday night and
are 1/12 favourites to take all the points from that match, which means Real
Madrid could be just a single point clear of the Catalans come Wednesday's
kick-off. I think that will just be more of a spur to Real to dismantle
Atlético Madrid are currently seventh in
the table on 42 points but could theoretically drop as low as 12th as they are
one of four sides on 42 points and have to deal with two sides right behind
them, (Athletic Bilbao on 41 points and Rayo Vallecano on 40). Despite the
tight pack following the big two, Atlético Madrid are 11/2 to record a top four
finish and 25/1 to finish third in La Liga.
The last time the sides met, Real Madrid
recorded a 4-1 home victory in which Ronaldo bagged a hat-trick; a repeat of
that score is available at 20/1 while Ronaldo is offered up at 6/1 to bag
another hat-trick. I'm backing Ronaldo to score as he is poised on 49 goals for
this season and a derby game would be the perfect platform to make a round
half-century, he’s on 5/2 to open the scoring.
Real Madrid will be expecting to take all
three points from this match because despite their current league prowess it
has been over 10 years since Atlético Madrid managed a victory over their cross
city rivals. The bookies are backing Real Madrid in this one as the away side
and table toppers are 4/7 to get three points from this derby while the home
side are 5/1 on the soccer betting board to win it. A draw which would push the
door a little further open for Barca to steal the league title right from under
Los Blancos’ noses is at 3/1.
to be Real Cheerful
Looking at the last five meetings in all
competitions between these two sides a very obvious pattern has emerged Real
Madrid have won all five matches and Atlético Madrdi have never scored more
than a single solitary goal in recent memory against Real. In fact Real have
stopped Atlético scoring on two occasions (in their last five meetings), one of
which was at Estadio Vicente Calderón.
In the last five head-to-head meetings
between these two sides Real Madrid have scored 12 goals compared to Atlético
who have only managed three. That sort of form might well result in Real Madrid
winning by a clear two-goal margin (offered up at 15/4) and as Real Madrid have
conceded a few goals this season that would point towards a 3-1 victory which
is available at 9/1. If you think Real Madrid will keep a clean sheet you get
2-0 at 8/1 or if you think we could be in for a six goal stunner, 4-2 is
available at 28/1. It's worth noting that the last two times Real Madrid played
Atlético at their grounds that only managed to win by a single goal; 2-1 and
1-0 a repeat of those scores is available at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. If you fancy a shock result the shortest odds
on a home victory for Atlético is on 1-0, at 16/1.
Soccer Picks: No surprises here, Real
Madrid win, and I’m putting my hard earned $$$ on 2-1, available at 7/1.