Making Sense Of NHL Betting Angles - Sensible or Coincidental?

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Tuesday, January 31, 2017 3:24 PM GMT

In this down time during the NHL, let’s kill the boredom by discussing 2 specific betting angles, and breaking down why neither is purely coincidental.

Throughout my series of ongoing NHL betting blogs, I've focused exclusively on recent team trends that can aid you in making winning NHL predictions. It's time to change it up a bit. I'm going to share a pair of specific NHL money line betting angles that have been successful over an extended time frame. In doing so, I will follow up with deductive reasoning which details why these wagering systems make sense and aren't purely coincidental. Keep in mind, trends concentrate on a specific team's results in an assortment of situations. While betting angles focus on all teams in a variety of circumstances.

Unconventional Wisdom

Play against any money line home team that's -100 to -150 which allowed 1 goal or less in their previous game, versus an opponent that's allowed 4 goals or more in each of their last 2 outings. Betting on the road teams in this precise situation resulted in going 32-12 (72.7%) during the past 5 seasons. NHL betting odds indicates that the road teams in those 44 games had an average money line of +109.4.

Public betting overwhelmingly sided with the home team in a high percentage of these situations. After all, the home teams were coming off a strong defensive effort, and their opponents had exhibited a combination of poor goaltending and shaky defensive play in 2 straight games. Furthermore, the money line price was very reasonable with all things considered. However, this exemplifies one of my favorite sports betting adages. “If it looks too good to be true then most times it is”.

Read Between the Lines

Play on any money line road favorite which has lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, and has a win percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent with a win percentage of less than .500. Since the start of the 1996-1997 NHL regular season began, road favorites thrust into this identical scenario went a solid 117-51 (69.6%) and did so at an average price of -129.2.

There's a lesson to be learned when assessing this NHL betting algorithm. It's easy to fade a road favorite that hasn't been playing well for a relatively long stretch. Nevertheless, keep in mind, the best sportsbooks don't possess an ounce of generosity, and certainly don't just give money away. If they deem the road team to be a money line favorite when these circumstances take place, there's intelligent reasoning behind it. One of the critical errors that sports bettors make is focusing way too much on one side's recent results. Conversely, they either ignore or fail to give opposing teams latest performances equal evaluation time. Avoiding that cardinal sin can go a long way in making successful picks.