The Senators are coming off one of their biggest wins this season over Montreal this Tuesday, but can they keep the momentum tonight when hosting The Boston Bruins? We analyze the market in search of value plus our first update on referees and how they affect wagering.
2016-2017 NHL Pick Record: 24-17 .585 +14.84 units
We keep rolling along as we took a chance with the Nashville Predators at a higher price than we like to lay but we survived and got the money. So the NHL prediction business rolls along today as we look to a more reasonable underdog. First, I want to wish all a Happy Thanksgiving as we have certainly had a great start to the NHL betting season. Look for the standings because there is a rule that says who ever is in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving has a great shot at of maintaining that pace. You'll notice the better teams settle into a consistent pace as were almost a quarter of the way through the season.
One element of wagering we haven't focused on is how do specific referees affect the outcome of games. Some have specific tendencies, so let's take a look at those now.
Jean Hebert leads the list of referees ROI. Herbert is a +$1,593 when betting favorites on the puck-line. The favorites are 11-4 meaning that his games are usually the best games with high returns on the favorite. By comparison, Mike Leggo owns the second highest ROI at 12-7 +$809. Quite a difference even though Hebert has only one more win. We should mention Wes McCauley who's average game ends with an average margin of 1.6. Gord Dwyer rarely has a favorite cover a puck-line as 16 of his 18 assignments have gone to the underdog.
Taking a look at which referees are best for 'Totals'. Brian Pochmara has had 14 assignments with 12 of them going over the 'total' returning $1,109. His games average just under seven goals with an average of 6.6. Something to think about when betting a 'total'. Kendrick Nicholson's games have cashed 13 of 19 'unders'.
We put so much focus on the two teams involved in a match-up but you rarely talk about the effect referees will have on a game.
When giving out NHL tips I first look to lines that may not make sense at first glance and tonight's release falls into that category but we're not going to listen because I just don't think the Bruins deserve to be a road favorite against a decent Senators team especially with Zdeno Chara not making the trip.
Shop Bruins vs. Senators Live NHL Odds Board
The Ottawa Senators are off their biggest win of the season as they put the Montreal Canadiens away Tuesday. The NHL odds makers may still not respect Ottawa but this has always been a strong situation for the Sens as they have won seven of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. I'm going to take a small chance with Ottawa as my hockey pick.