Week 9 NFL Predictions - Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds & Free Picks

Kansas City Chiefs team in action

Wednesday, November 2, 2016 4:04 PM GMT

The Jacksonville Jaguars visit the KC Chiefs for this 1:00 ET kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium. These teams enter with very different momentum join me for a complete betting preview concluding with my NFL pick. 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jacksonville has lost consecutive games to enter this contest at 2-5 SU. KC has won 3 consecutive games and enters the contest at 5-2 SU. I will follow the positive momentum of KC and the negative momentum of Jacksonville to make a rare call on a double digit favorite in the NFL.

The Jags entered this season on a 4-year slide of 14-50 SU. It appeared to be a “hot seat” season for 4th year HC Bradley. With QB Bortles maturing and the rushing game appearing to be improving, a notable uptick was expected from the Jags. To date, there have only been victories against Indy and Chicago (a combined 5-11 SU). Last Thursday night, in a division matchup against Tennessee, Jacksonville's running game and defense was embarrassed. Jacksonville was outgained 494-370 and outrushed 43/214 to 11/48. As we know, there is a 75% chance of victory, if a team outrushes another by 30 or more yards and an 85% chance of victory, if a team runs the ball 30 or more times, while the opponent does not and an 86% chance of victory, if the team is held to 22 or fewer running attempts, while the opponent does not. The Jags were a clear example of those numbers in the 36-22 loss. For the season, the Jags are being outrushed 30/125 to 19/73. Though OC Olson has been relieved of his duties, there is no way to back the Jags and their poor running profile until those numbers begin to turn around and QB Bortles would benefit from that efficiency.

Final Analysis

The home-standing Chiefs enter with positive momentum. Note that this is a team under HC Reid, who has been known to go on streaks. The Chiefs began 2013 with 9 consecutive wins. In 2014, it was a mid-season winning streak at this very point in the season that was 5-0 SU ATS. Last year, again starting in Game 6, KC won 11 consecutive games (covering the first 6 of those until the line caught up). Even if QB Smith (concussion) is unable to play, note that his replacement QB Foles performed with aplomb last week, passing for 223 yards with 2 TDs in the 30-14 win vs. the Indy Colts, in which they outgained them 422-277. Time to ride the Chiefs! I invite you to put the odds in your favor and join me in my free NFL pick in the KC Chiefs this afternoon.

Free NFL Picks: Chiefs -9.5

Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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