Week 9 NFL Picks - Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers

Indianapolis Colts players in action

Thursday, November 3, 2016 3:28 PM GMT

The NFL odds are tighter now that it's week 9, but the "Under" should have some value in Sunday afternoon's game between the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers.

Record: 16-11-1 ATS, 4-7 Totals

What will it take for people to give up on the Indianapolis Colts? Not that they should, of course, but fans are fickle, and the Colts (3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) are on a downward trajectory after years of playing above their heads. Maybe the pitchforks will start coming out after the Colts visit the Green Bay Packers (4-3 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) Sunday afternoon kicking off from beautiful Lambeau Field at 4:25 p.m. Eastern on CBS. The Packers are 7-point favorites as we go to press.

Ah, sugar. We're crossing the halfway point of the 2016 regular season, so these NFL odds are getting a bit tight – it is a marketplace, after all, and markets get more efficient over time. Good thing the NFL resets the clock and starts over every year. So where's the betting value in this matchup? Maybe with that 54-point total, up from 52 at the open. It's the fattest total on the board this week. They're playing at Lambeau in November. Seems like a good spot to put the UNDER in our week 9 NFL picks. Did we mention the Colts quarterback is kinda m'eh?

Hey man, it is what it is. Andrew Luck (16 TDs, five INTs) may look just fine to some people, but Football Outsiders say he's having a below-average season, according to their DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) stats through Week 8. As a passer, Luck ranks No. 23 among qualifying starters, one spot behind Jamies Winston. Luck is making up for some of that with his scrambling, where he's second in efficiency behind Colin Kaepernick, but that's small potatoes compared to the passing game.

Some of the blame for Luck's demise has to fall on the Colts offensive line, which finds itself in a very difficult matchup against Green Bay's dominant front seven. Luck has already been sacked a league-high 31 times, including six in last week's 30-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (UNDER 50.5). He's got ankle and shoulder problems, too. The weather actually doesn't look too bad for Sunday night, but let's roll with the "Under" anyway and try to exploit this inflated total with a contrarian pick.

Free NFL Pick: Under 54 (–108)

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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