Week 1 Against The Spread & SU NFL Odds For Packers vs. Jaguars

Jordy Nelson Running With The Ball

Wednesday, September 7, 2016 9:51 PM GMT

Our betting expert examines the Jaguars' recent history and finds that their recent trend casts a mighty shadow on their season opener vs Green Bay. Read on as he elaborates on his NFL betting tips

The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to EverBank Field in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon for NFL Regular Season Week 1 and what could prove to be a very tough setback for the eventual losers here. Although Blake Bortles and the Jaguars are 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series and Jacksonville has been pretty good in Week 1's, the Jaguars just haven't been defending their home turf in Florida that well, going an anemic 10-21-1 ATS in their L32 Home games here making the Packers the pick here. Let's examine.

Green Bay Packers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Week 1
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers head south to the Sunshine State to face Blake Bortles and the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon at EverBank Field in NFL Regular Season Week 1. Offshore sportsbooks currently have the visiting Packers as solid 4½- to 5½-point favorites in the market on Monday night.

The Total currently at 48 almost all of the top graded online sportsbooks. The Money Line odds for this inter-conference meeting sees Green Bay priced at -220 with Jacksonville priced at +180 on the takeback.

Heading into the opening week of the NFL Regular Season, the Packers Regular Season Win Total sits at a high of 10½ while the Jaguars Regular Season Team Win Total is currently at 7½.

Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers and 11th-year Head Coach Mike McCarthy are looking to rebound from a strange 2015 NFL Regular Season in which it seemed the whole Cheesehead narrative and reality was driven by an Injury to WR Jordy Nelson in the Preseason at Pittsburgh, hamstringing the team's preferred aerial attack and giving Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers one less guy to the Football throw to and putting an awful lot of pressure on the team's other starting WR, Randall Cobb. And this year, Kansas State-product Nelson heads in a bit tentative, having not played in 12½ months but McCarthy—one of the best NFL Head Coaches at winning bettor's money—said on Monday, 'Jordy's full go, and we expect him to be full bore in Jacksonville.' So the Packers look to be in much better shape Roster-wise and Confidence-wise compare with last season, especially coming off a nice preseason in which Green Bay went 3-1 and only allowed 12.5 ppg.

And nobody wants to lose in Week 1, especially an aging team with aging QB which almost always has a shot at making it to the Super Bowl as NFC champions. Much of how Rodgers and the Packers do this season will depend on the health and maturing of the OL, the Defense, the Knees of Nelson and the durability and conditioning of RB Eddie Lacy. But one thing's for sure: Green Bay is better off than they were last season heading in and with the Packers NFC North rival the Minnesota Vikings seeing starting QB Teddy Bridgewater injured, its path to the Postseason may have gotten a whole lot easier before the first real game on Sunday is even played.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars and 4th-year Head Coach Gus Bradley are always looking to improve and the optimism ran high with the Sharps and the Sportsbooks this Summer with the Jaguars Regular Season Team Win Total sitting at 7½ as we head into the Regular Season. Much of how Jacksonville does this Regular Season will depend on its key Skill Position players, QB Blake Bortles, RBs Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon, TE Marcedes Lewis and extremely talented WRs Allen Robinson and Miami-Florida-product Allen Hurns as good and evolving of a unit as this franchise has had in a decade and maybe in its somewhat short history.

But much of Bortles and the Jaguars immediate success will depend greatly on the play of their Defense which allowed 20.5 ppg in a 1-3 Preseason and an average of 28 ppg in 2015 and with Rookies Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack the Jaguars franchise really made a commitment to strengthening that side of the ball. But S Tashaun Gipson and the hosts will really be put to the test here in Week 1 with gunslinger Rodgers in town, Nelson happily back in the fold and the Pack playing on a surface at Everbank Field (Grass) on which they really like to play. Jacksonville is an impressive 8-4 ATS in its L12 First Games (Home) of the season while Green Bay is 5-5 ATS in its L10 First Games (Away). The Packers are the only team with a Winning Record that the Jaguars will face in their first 7 games.

Recent Relevant Side and Totals Trends and Game Expectations
The Jaguars are a very impressive 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in their L17 NFL Regular Season Week 1 games, Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series, as has been the Underdog which has obviously been the Jaguars. But recent ATS Trends point against the Jaguars with Jacksonville 1-3-1 in its L5 games on Grass (EverBank Field), 1-4-1 ATS in its L6 overall and a dismal 9-23 ATS their L32 games in the month of September (28.1%), despite the nice Week 1 ATS mark. The Jaguars are also a disappointing 10-21-1 in their L31 Home games (32.3%) while Rodgers and the Packers are 5-1 ATS their L6 on the Road. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS its L4 games in September, 5-1 ATS its L6 Road games, 5-2 ATS its L7 overall and the Packers are 20-9-1 ATS in their L30 games on Grass.

The Over is 9-2 the L11 Green Bay games in September and the Over is 5-0 the L5 Packers Week 1 games, the Over is 5-2 the L7 Jaguars Home games and the Over is 6-1 the L7 Jacksonville games in September but the Under is 11-4 ATS in the L15 Green Bay games overall, the Under is 10-3 the L13 Packers games on Grass and the Under has W3 straight in this somewhat infrequent inter-conference series with 39, 40 and 34 points being scored in the games—all Jaguars ATS covers. When these two last played here in Jacksonville (Dec. 14, 2008), the Jaguars won outright as 2½-point Underdogs (45½, Under) as the hosts outgained the Cheeseheads, 341-238 in a game in which Green Bay amassed only 66 Rushing yards. The Packers will need Lacy to get off to a good start here as well as guys like RB James Starks, TE Richard Rodgers, TE Jared Cook, WR Ty Montgomery, WR Davante Adams and WR Jeff Janis to all produce and take some pressure off key Offensive Skill guys Nelson, Cobb and Lacy.

Expect a nice performance from Rodgers here in the opener as well as from the Green Bay Defense, outplaying the Jaguars in their own crib with the Packers allowing 2 TDs and a FG with the host Jaguars give up 3 TDs and 2 FGs in the opener in this forecast. The Packers +2½ might also make a nice 7-point Teaser element in Week 1 along with the Denver Broncos +10 on Thursday night in the NFL Season Kickoff opener (NBC, 8:30 p.m. EDT/5:30 p.m. PDT), the Cincinnati Bengals +4½, the Houston Texans Pick ‘em and the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots +13 at Arizona on Sunday night. Getting Nelson back is huge in many ways here for Green Bay.

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NFL Picks Record: 8-5-0
Predicted Final Score: Packers 27 Jaguars 17


Free NFL Picks: Packers -4½ & Moneyline -220
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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