I hit on going 'under' 1.5 games decided by one point last week on Bovada NFL specials as well as an Adrian Peterson rushing prop but missed on a Falcons sack total. Here are the Bovada special props and picks for Week 3.
How Many 0-2 Teams Will Make The Playoffs?
The 'over/under' is 1.5 on NFL odds, with the under a -200 favorite. Since 1990 when the NFL instituted the current 12-team playoff format, just 26 teams have reached the postseason after losing their first two games. Two did last year in Seattle and Houston, with the Texans winning the AFC South. While at least one 0-2 team has made the playoffs each of the past three years, none did from 2009-12. Three Super Bowl winners have started 0-2: the 1993 Cowboys (Emmitt Smith held out the first two games), 2001 Patriots (Tom Brady became the team's starter in Week 2) and 2007 Giants (upset the unbeaten Patriots in the Super Bowl).
Your winless teams this season: the Dolphins, Bills, Browns, Colts, Jaguars, Redskins, Bears and Saints. The Browns have zero percent chance. Miami should get to 1-2 on Sunday as it hosts Cleveland. Buffalo is a home dog to Arizona and probably loses. Indianapolis is a home favorite against San Diego and Jacksonville is a slight home dog vs. Baltimore. I think the Colts and Jags both win. Washington will fall to 0-3 with a loss to the Giants, so eliminate the Redskins. Chicago will drop to 0-3 by losing to Dallas on Sunday night without Jay Cutler. New Orleans is a 3-point home favorite Monday night vs. Atlanta and likely wins to improve to 1-2.
NFL Free Pick: 'Under.' I can see either the Colts or Jaguars making it -- not both since in the same division and play each other twice -- but no one else.
Cody Kessler O/U 216.5 Passing Yards, 1.5 TDs, 0.5 INTs
Ah, the 'Factory of Sadness' that is the Cleveland Browns and their quarterback position. Of course, the team lost Robert Griffin III to a shoulder injury in Week 1 and then Josh McCown to his own shoulder injury in Week 2. The team absolutely had no plans to play Kessler, a third-round pick out of USC, this season. He's a project. But on Sunday in Miami, he will be the 26th starting quarterback for the Browns since the franchise returned to the NFL in 1999. Even more incredible, he is the fifth different starter in the past five games. To close last season, Johnny Manziel started Week 16 in Kansas City and Austin Davis did against Pittsburgh in Week 17. Naturally, the Browns lost both of those.
Cleveland will be the second team since the merger to start five different QBs in a row. The Browns join the 1986-87 Falcons, who trotted out the forgettable Turk Schonert, David Archer, Scott Campbell, Erik Kramer and Jeff Van Raaphorst in consecutive games. In the preseason, Kessler was 19-for-28 for 92 yards and a touchdown and was sacked seven times. That was done against third-teamers. The Dolphins rank 16th in pass defense, allowing 271 yards per game in losses in Seattle (Russell Wilson at QB) and in New England (Jimmy Garoppolo and then third-round rookie Jacoby Brissett in relief). Miami has picked off one pass and allowed four TD throws.
NFL Free Picks: 'Under' yards (-120) and TDs (-200) and over picks (-250). This could be ugly. The Browns also are without first-round rookie receiver Corey Coleman now due to a broken hand.
Will Kirk Cousins Start Every Regular-Season Game For Redskins?
Yes is +110 and no -150 on NFL picks and this doesn't include missing a game due to injury. The Redskins are one of the NFL's big disappointment at 0-2 since they won the NFC East last year. I thought both they and Cousins were flukes in 2015, though. He threw for 4,166 yards with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season. But the 2016 Cousins looks more like the guy from 2012-14 as he has just one touchdown and three picks, including a crucial and stupid one last week in the Dallas end zone in the fourth quarter and the Redskins up 23-20. That basically led to Washington losing the game. Reports emerged that multiple offensive players were complaining afterward about Cousins and that they preferred Colt McCoy. Coach Jay Gruden said this week he has "total faith" in Cousins, but what else would he say? The Redskins are looking smart right now for not signing Cousins to a huge long-term deal this past offseason and instead of slapping him with a prove-it-again franchise tag of $19.95 million.
NFL Free Pick: No. The Redskins aren't tied to Cousins after this season, so they don't have to worry about hurting Cousins' feelings or wrecking his confidence by benching him. He'll sit eventually.
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