We cashed all four of our NFL props on Sunday to move our record to 5-1 for the week and nearly 60% on the season. I am back to close out the week with two more plays for the Monday night battle between the Bears and Vikings.
Vikings O/U 22.5 points
There is a lot of juice on this first play from Bovada, but I think the over is worth a look here on Monday even with NFL Odds of -140. The Vikings have looked great on offense other than their loss to the Eagles. But of course, everyone overreacted and have labeled the Vikings a bust after one game. However, the Philly defense is pretty good and it is the exact opposite of the Chicago defense the Vikings are preparing for tonight.
Jerick McKinnon will miss this game which does hurt the Vikings' offense a little. However, the Bears have been pretty good against running backs this season, so it appears as if the Vikings might be forced to throw here anyway. Chicago's passing defense has been abysmal over the last three weeks, allowing an average of more than 300 yards through the air and six touchdowns. If there was ever a get-right game for the Vikings, it could be this one.
I expect guys like Kyle Rudolph and Stefon Diggs to have big bounce-back performances against this Bears defense and if they can both catch a touchdown and the Vikings provide some semblance of a running game, they should have 23-plus points tonight.
Free NFL Pick: Over 22.5 (-140)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Matt Asiata O/U 25.5 receiving yards
We pushed our luck with this exact play on Spencer Ware on Sunday, but lucky for us he collected the 26 yards we needed before getting concussed and leaving the game. However, Ware is one of the better all-around backs in the league and betting the over with him was easy against a Colts team that had given up a ton of yards through the air to opposing running backs.
Despite the Bears having a weaker pass defense, they have been good against running backs this season, especially denying them yards through the air. Right now they are the best defense in the NFL in allowing receiving yards to opposing running backs believe it or not. They have only allowed 136 yards through the air to running backs this season and with Matt Asiata not being a flamethrower out of the backfield, the under looks like a bargain right now.
Asiata had 25 receiving yards on six catches last week in a tough game against the Eagles and the week before that he posted 46 yards through the air on three catches. However, the Bears are only allowing just under 20 receiving yards per game to running backs. As mentioned above, I see the Vikings doing their work downfield, for my NFL pick, and not dinking and dunking too much with Asiata. Any short routes are going to be run by Rudolph anyway.
Free NFL Pick: Under 25.5 (-115)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada